Picking & Grinning: UFC 123 Main Card

Following Friday’s preliminary picks, Sherdog.com staff put their reputations on the line with bold predictions of the UFC 123 main card:

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida

Tony Loiseleur: Playing armchair psychologist isn’t a good idea when picking fights, but given the circumstances, I think it’s warranted here. With Rampage calling Machida boring and claiming that he just wants to have an exciting fight, is he taking Lyoto seriously? Is his gameplan is just to walk straight forward? He could potentially replicate Shogun’s forward pressure, but without low kicks to supplement his boxing, simply pushing forward won’t work, and this isn’t the trim and motivated Rampage we saw when he first appeared in the UFC. Lyoto by frustrating and outpointing Jackson what ‘Page will no doubt call “a boring fight.”

Lutfi Sariahmed: I love what this bout could be. The problem is it won't be anything like that. For all his hype, Rampage still can not defend the low kick. Machida will be more than content scoring points from a distance while avoiding getting into any serious exchanges. People will complain about it afterwards, but Machida will fight a smart fight. A loss for either fighter puts them in a bad way in the division. Machida doesn't need to start trading blows with Rampage to win. He knows that. Machida will win a decision.

Luca Fury: It's no secret that Quinton's motivation has been lacking recently and that is not going to help him beat an already nearly-unbeatable fighter. Jackson's bread-and-butter is the striking game and Machida is just better than him in that realm. People who are picking "Rampage" are banking on him catching Lyoto with a counter strike and scoring a stoppage, but I just don't see that happening. Lyoto is far too quick, technical and accurate for Quinton to catch him with one of his wide hooks. Ultimately, I see Lyoto using his superior footwork and striking to unleash a variety of kicks and punches, while staying out of Quinton's punching range. Lyoto will take a clear-cut unanimous decision.

B.J. Penn vs. Matt Hughes

Tristen Critchfield: Maybe Frankie Edgar is just Penn's kryptonite, but a loss to an old rival would be devastating for "The Prodigy." What began seemingly as a farewell tour has turned into one more run at serious relevance at welterweight for Hughes. His quick submission of Ricardo Almeida was shocking, and a victory over Penn could get the UFC thinking title shot for the Hall of Famer. Penn will have the advantage standing, but Hughes in top position could spell trouble for the Hawaiian. If Penn's conditioning is up to snuff, and it should be because he's not lacking for motivation, he will be just crafty enough to outpoint Hughes. Penn by decision.

Fury: People are quick to say B.J.'s past two losses are caused by a lack of motivation, but I disagree. I think he lost to Edgar based on a stylistic disadvantage -- a disadvantage that he won't have to deal with in this fight. B.J. is much better than Matt in just about every area besides cardio and offensive wrestling. Stylistically, B.J. is nightmare for Hughes, especially in a 15 minute fight where Matt has less time to tire out B.J.. Yes, Hughes has improved his striking recently, but it's still not on the level of Penn’s. He destroyed Hughes in their first meeting and was handily beating him in the rematch up until he suffered a fluke rib injury, and I think B.J. dominates yet again. I think Penn drops Hughes with strikes, follows him to the floor and finishes him with a TKO or a submission.

Loiseleur: Penn will not get cut if he loses to Hughes, but dropping a third bout to a fighter on his retirement tour is something the Hilo boy can’t allow. This bout is also a three-rounder, so Penn’s stamina will play less a factor than his ability to outbox Hughes on the feet and stay out of nasty crucifixes. I’m willing to bet that after their last fight (and Penn’s two prior losses), he’ll do just that to take the decision.

Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Jose Falcao Goncalves

Jordan Breen: The salad days of Chute Boxe are long gone, and despite Maiquel Falcao having a great name, his skills don't exactly match. It's a cliché, but, he's got the proverbial puncher's chance. Harris has been a fairly slow starter in the Octagon thus far, but unless Falcao lands a battery of punches early, he's going to get slammed and defiled on the mat. Harris punches his way to a stoppage in the late first or early second, and finally earns a non-debuting UFC opponent.

Loiseleur: I don’t think it’s wise to put any stock into Goncalves big shiny record, particularly against what is arguably one of the most improved fighters we’ve seen since his stint on TUF. Harris finishes Goncalves like he did his last five opponents since returning to the UFC, round one TKO.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon

Critchfield: Sotiropoulos continues to be mentioned as a fringe title contender at 155 pounds, but Lauzon is no steppingstone on that road. The former Ultimate Fighter 5 competitor has a good submission game and showed against Gabe Reudiger that he has fully recovered from a nagging knee injury. Sotiropoulos, however, has the variety of skills to pass this test. His competent striking plus his ability to work comfortably from the guard should give him the edge over Lauzon. Sotiropoulos by decision.

Breen: In his last two outings, Sotiropoulos has already dealt with better wrestlers than Lauzon, as he was able to take down Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino to great effect. While the fight might be competitive on the feet, Sotiropoulos' ability to take Lauzon down repeatedly and batter him should set up an clear-cut but entertaining win for the Aussie, who will then march into a title elimination bout in February at UFC 127 in Sydney. Neoprene neoprene neoprene, oi oi oi.

Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch

Sariahmed: Mr. Wonderful's development has been fascinating to me. As is the case with any uber-prospect in MMA, he came in with a lot of hype and could leap tall buildings in a single bound. Then he took two of his first three opponents to a decision and the hype died down a bit. But it might've been the best thing that happens to Davis' career.

Loiseleur: Going primarily on Davis’ preternaturally quick ability to adjust to the sport of mixed martial arts as well as his ability to adapt his wrestling skills to the sport in creative ways, I’m thinking that Davis will find a way to impress us yet again. I’ll say he wins by decision though, just to be on the safe side.