Picking & Grinning: UFC 126 Prelims
Jeff Sherwood Feb 4, 2011
Chad
Mendes (center) | Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com
The UFC 126 preliminary card is examined by Sherdog.com staff:
Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa
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Brian Knapp: You have to respect how Omigawa has redefined himself as a featherweight. Unfortunately for him, I think his return to the Octagon takes a turn for the worse. Mendes keeps him on his back and wins on points.
Tomasz Marciniak: Everyone knows Mendes as a shut down
wrestler and he will be, far and above, the best wrestler Omigawa
has ever faced. Nonetheless, Omigawa for me has some underdog
appeal; his boxing is much better and I don't think he'll be
hesitant to strike in fear of getting taken down. I'm also
intrigued if the Japanese fighter can catch Mendes in anything off
his back. Still, knowing how fights are usually scored in the U.S.,
makes me gravitate toward picking Mendes by decision.
Lutfi Sariahmed: Omigawa may not think that Mendes is “much of an MMA fighter,” but the story to this fight remains the same. Even if Mendes’ overall MMA game isn't completely developed, he can take Omigawa down without thinking twice about it. If Omigawa can't consistently defend the takedown, the rest won't matter. It's not about just stopping one takedown either for Omigawa. Mendes will keep coming and Omigawa has to keep defending. I don't think Omigawa will be able to stuff enough of them, so Mendes by decision it is.
Tristen Critchfield: A serious fight to sort out the featherweight pecking order. Mendes has used his wrestling to smother opponents on his unbeaten streak. Omigawa struggled in the UFC at lightweight, but he's a new man at 145 pounds. Mendes’ wrestling should be able to neutralize Omigawa's attack. Mendes by decision.
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Demetrious Johnson
Guilherme Pinheiro: If you’re expecting a vintage dominating Kid Yamamoto performance, you’re in for disappointment. It is obvious that Yamamoto hasn’t been looking like he used to. That doesn’t mean he can’t win the fight; he can. I just don’t think he will. To make things more complicated, he will face a Johnson that is rapidly improving in MMA. His performance in a submission win against Damacio Page was a thing of beauty. Despite being small for bantamweight standards, I believe “Mighty Mouse” will wrestle Kid down to the ground and blanket him there. The pick here is Johnson by decision.
Freddie DeFreitas: This fight is easily my pick for fight of the night. I would give the slight edge in speed to Johnson, but the power clearly to Yamamoto. “Kid” needs to be careful with Johnson in the scramble and protect his neck, as Mighty Mouse has won four of seven career bouts by form of choke. Yamamoto has the ability to finish this fight with one big punch. Provided he doesn't load up consistently, the knockout should eventually come: Yamamoto by TKO in round two.
Jordan Breen: Another one of the card’s classic “Which incarnation of Fighter X will show up?” dilemmas. Given his defensive wrestling and punching power, an active, aggressive Yamamoto deserves to be a favorite over Johnson. The concern is that a lazy, conservative "Kid" will get outworked by the speed, accuracy and eye-grabbing attacks of the frenetic Johnson, and he'll lose a decision. However, given the fact that Johnson -- who was outwrestled and outmuscled by Brad Pickett -- should get stuck on the feet with Yamamoto, the only way “Kid” blows it is if he resorts to throwing single lunging overhands, looking for a big knockout. It's his fight to lose.
Todd Martin: Kid Yamamoto just hasn’t looked the same since getting injured in his attempt to make the Olympic wrestling team. The old Kid shouldn’t have had too much difficulty defeating Johnson so the big question is how far removed he is from his peak. I think Kid will flash the talent that made him one of Japan’s top MMA stars, countering Johnson’s speed with devastating power punches.
Donald Cerrone vs. Paul Kelly
Tony Loiseleur: Kelly's definitely got rocks for fists, but if and when Cerrone tires of striking with the Briton, I'm confident he'll easily take position on Kelly either off of a takedown or scramble. He'll probably slip off and lose position at various points of the fight, but given his endless gas tank, he'll undoubtedly scramble back and get them again. If Cowboy indulges him, Kelly can make it a vicious scrap. However a Cerrone at his best will be more active and can frustrate Kelly on the ground and with submission attempts.. Cerrone by decision.
King: Cerrone's first dip into the UFC waters should be a successful one. One of the big questions with the UFC/WEC merger was how well the WEC fighters would do in the big show. I don't see Cerrone ever being champion, nor do I ever even see him challenging for the title. Kelly is a good first opponent for the Cowboy as a solid test. Cerrone via submission.
Marciniak: If he wants to, Cerrone can be a capable wrestler, as evidenced by the second Varner fight, though sometimes he is still liable of giving up takedowns. Kelly should be looking to do just that since he's outranged on the feet and Cerrone will light him up as long as the fight remains standing. However, I think the Greg Jackson fighter may as well submit the Brit from his back. However he decides to do it, Cerrone should win before the time is up.
Sariahmed: Assuming Cerrone’s done his due diligence in camp and watched tape, the plan should be simple. Keep Kelly at the end of his punches and don't even give him a chance to steal a round by getting taken down. Give me Cerrone by TKO early. He's too long for Kelly to cause many problems standing and Cerrone is superior on the mat.
Mike Pierce vs. Kenny Robertson
Critchfield: Pierce's only losses have come to more dominant wrestlers than himself, and even then he put a little bit of a scare into Jon Fitch. If he can avoid the newcomer's array of submissions, he’ll grind out a decision.
Pinheiro: Georges St. Pierre aside, Pierce is the guy who came the closest to beating Fitch in the UFC. That says a lot about this fight. While Robertson is no slouch by any means, I think the jump in level of competition might have been too big this time. I’ll take Pierce with a dominant performance over three rounds to get the unanimous decision.
Breen: Robertson is a very able grappler, who wrestled at Eastern Illinois University, the same alma mater as welterweight legend Matt Hughes. However, while he's talented, his skillset doesn't jive too well against Pierce, who is a stronger wrestler in the MMA context and has superior boxing which continues to come along. The bout should be competitive, but Pierce wears him out with his boxing and wrestling and takes a workmanlike decision, continuing to quietly put together a rock solid 170-pound resume.
Martin: Both Pierce and Robertson have won most of their bouts by utilizing superior wrestling. The man who is able to maintain top position more often than not is going to be the likely winner here. I think that’s going to be Mike Pierce.
Paul Taylor vs. Gabe Ruediger
King: One of the tougher fights to predict on the card in my opinion. Both guys need a win here if they want to stick around the UFC. Ruediger has a clear advantage on the ground and if the fight stays on the floor for an extended period of time, it's his fight to lose. That said, I see Taylor landing the one big shot he needs to stun Ruediger, and then finish him off with strikes on the ground.
Marciniak: For Taylor to win, his opponent has to be pretty inept at taking the fight to the ground. While Ruediger isn't a great wrestler by any stretch of the imagination, I believe he can close the distance, get the Brit into the clinch and muscle him down. Do that at least three times and the well-known cake enthusiast should pick up his first UFC win.
Sariahmed: Chances are, the loser of this bout is going to get cut. A slow fight that goes to the judges and offers nothing notable for either fighter could see them both get cut. It's hard for me to think Ruediger won't have a better showing against Taylor compared to what happened vs. Lauzon. He ran into a buzzsaw there, and as a late replacement he had almost no shot from the opening bell. He should be able to win a decision here and survive on the UFC’s roster.Â
Loiseleur: Cake indiscretions on TUF aside, Ruediger has turned his career around in his time outside of the UFC. However, despite a losing record in the UFC, it's hard to deny that Taylor's time in the Octagon gives him a slight experience advantage. Ruediger may not be able to match Taylor punch for punch, but he can certainly take him to the ground and bully him there. I'm siding with Taylor for the decision at the moment, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Ruediger finds a way to take him down and control for the duration of the fight. Regardless, both men are likely on the chopping block here, so I'm hoping they put on a fun scrap for their the right to stay in the UFC.
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Ricardo Romero
Critchfield: Kingsbury has the edge in Octagon experience, but Romero's star has the potential to burn brighter. Romero by submission in round two.
Pinheiro: This is a tough one right out of the gate. On one hand, I think Kingsbury improved more than expected and actually turned out to be a decent fighter. On the other, Romero cut his teeth in Ring of Combat and beat a respectable opponent in his UFC debut. However, he took a beating in the first round of his fight against Seth Petruzelli. In spite of having a slight wrestling advantage, I am not confident Romero can bring this fight to ground whenever he pleases. I think Kingsbury overcomes Romero’s wrestling advantage and takes the decision.
Breen: Kingsbury-Romero might be one of the hardest bouts to call on the card. Romero looked like a million bucks on the northeastern scene, but was battered early in his contest with Petruzelli. Kingsbury was a barnacle from the eighth season of "The Ultimate Fighter," but has steadily improved every time out. Romero hits hard, but is lumbering, and if he's happy to swing heavy blows early, he'll likely be digging his way out of a hole akin to the Petruzelli fight, and Kingsbury, even if he's cardio isn't superb, won't fold so easily. It's enough to make me favor a Kingsbury decision, but it's one of the tightest races on the card, with big time split-decision potential.
Martin: Kingsbury’s best shot is to keep the fight standing against Romero, but I’m not sure how pronounced an edge he has in the standup. The duel is highly likely to go to the ground sooner or later, where Romero’s BJJ game will earn him the win.
2011 Standings
Tomasz Marciniak 18-10
Brian Knapp 17-11
Todd Martin 17-11
Guilherme Pinheiro 16-12
Tristen Critchfield 15-13
Lutfi Sariahmed 15-13
Rob King 14-14
Jordan Breen 14-14
Tony Loiseleur 14-14
Freddie DeFreitas 11-17
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