Picking & Grinning: UFC Live 5 Main Card

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Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC Live 5 main card, which airs live on the Versus network at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Sunday from the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.

Welterweights
Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

Lutfi Sariahmed: I’m so disappointed in this being the main event. I understand the entertainment factor, but I think that’s a bogus argument. Hardy-Lytle is a bout between two guys that have almost no relevance in the division right now. Meanwhile, Jim Miller-Benson Henderson is the co-main event and could potentially produce the next No. 1 contender in the lightweight division. I understand the reasons behind it. I just don’t agree with them. A sloppy boxing bout goes to Hardy by decision.

Rob King: Bet the house on this fight ending with the winner getting “Knockout of the Night” honors. Both guys love to stand and bang, and I don’t see how this fight won’t be entertaining. Lytle is a bit more technical in his boxing, while Hardy, I feel, has a bit more power in his hands. Both guys are in desperate need of a win, Hardy to avoid being cut and Lytle to avoid becoming the man with the most losses in UFC history. Give me the Brit here to land one of his heavier shots and score a stoppage.

Tristen Critchfield: Both fighters have something to prove in this main event bout. Lytle was on a surprising four-fight winning streak before an upset loss to Brian Ebersole at UFC 127. Hardy, a former No. 1 contender, has struggled since a game five-round loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 111, getting knocked out by Carlos Condit and overpowered by Anthony Johnson in his next two bouts. This matchup should provide a good style matchup, as Hardy is at his best standing and Lytle will likely be willing to oblige. That said, Lytle is more well-rounded and extremely capable in the submission game. Hardy seems to be trending downward, so Lytle takes an entertaining decision.

Lightweights
Jim Miller vs. Benson Henderson

Sariahmed: Without question, in my mind, this is the best bout of the night. It’s the most relevant, and every one of Henderson’s appearances has potential for “Fight of the Night” honors. The biggest question here is what happens on the ground. Miller is going off as a minus-145 favorite, I think, because of his ground acumen. Neither fighter has a great striking game about which to write home, but Miller’s advantage in the wrestling department means he could put Henderson on his back. What does Henderson do from there? If he fights like he did against Donald Cerrone, he could certainly win a decision or even submit Miller. But then there’s Henderson's performance against Anthony Pettis. He was outhustled in a lot of spots in that fight and spent too long fighting Pettis off his back. Miller can wear you down with his top game, and if he does that, he’ll be on his way to a decision win and a shot at the Frankie Edgar-Gray Maynard winner. Give me Miller to win.

Jordan Breen: The true tragedy of Miller-Henderson is simply that we won’t get five rounds of it, which we so richly deserve. This bout should offer back-and-forth action in all positions -- a true hallmark of Henderson bouts. However, with the recent developments in his striking, it’s Miller's fight to lose. He has the standing advantage and an advantage in the wrestling department. His scrambling skills can let him take dominant positions, as well. However, that’s also where Henderson excels, so Miller ought not tempt fate and instead try to sprawl-and-brawl to a win, bypassing the chance of Henderson getting his nasty guillotine. The prediction is Miller on points, but the real prediction is a bonus-worthy fight.

Tomasz Marciniak: I lean toward Miller in this fight. I think his biggest advantage is in the striking department, but I doubt Henderson will let his foe stand at a distance and punch away. Rather, this fight looks to be contested in the clinch and on the ground. Henderson is obviously a very good grappler, but I just think that Miller is ever so slightly better. The New Jersey native’s grappling was only harnessed by Maynard’s top control in the UFC, and Henderson does not have that kind of suffocating top game. True to his nickname, “Smooth” looks to improve positions and open looks for chokes. I just think Miller is too good to get caught with the guillotine and will be able to scramble out of tight situations on the ground or stop Henderson’s takedowns altogether. Such a fight will lead to Miller grabbing the victory by judges’ decision.

Brian Knapp: This has all the ingredients you look for in a fight: talent, personality, hunger, athleticism, toughness and high stakes. Miller enters the matchup a little further along in his development. He has fought the best the UFC lightweight division has to offer, and though he was turned away in previous bouts against Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar, the value of that kind of experience cannot be overstated. An underrated striker and gifted grappler, Henderson is wildly talented and has the makings of a future contender at 155 pounds. At 27 and just 15 fights into his career, time is on his side. For now, the former WEC champion must wait his turn. Miller wins a decision.

Welterweights
Duane Ludwig vs. Amir Sadollah

Guilherme Pinheiro: I think Sadollah is the favorite. However, he has to be careful because, as his nickname suggests, Ludwig can bang. I just think Sadollah is more technical on the feet. He is going to use his better-than-average kicks to keep Ludwig at bay and control the distance on his way to a decision win.

Todd Martin: Ludwig has more of a reputation than Sadollah in some circles because of his long tenure in the sport and high-profile fights earlier in his career, but at this stage of his career, I just think Sadollah is the better fighter. Chronologically, Ludwig is only three years older, but he has been through so much training and so many wars over the years; Sadollah has a lot less mileage physically. Sadollah has done well in his young career when not matched with wrestlers, and Ludwig is only 7-7 in his last 14 fights. Sadollah is the pick.

Freddie DeFreitas: The charismatic winner of Season 7 of “The Ultimate Fighter” probably knows better than to engage in a muay Thai contest with a man named “Bang.” In a straight standup fight, Sadollah loses, hands down, but the 30-year-old prospect, in my opinion, has a more complete MMA game than the 10 year professional. If Sadollah can keep the fight on the outside, score with strikes while avoiding taking significant damage and mix in a takedown or two in each round, the decision win can easily be had.

Lightweights
Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira

Tony Loiseleur: I’m torn on who to go with here. On the one hand, Oliveira is great standing and on the ground and is incredibly active in both areas. Cerrone, if a tad more reckless, is similarly proficient on the feet and in the scramble, likely making it that much more difficult for “Do Bronx” to find purchase in either realm. I expect a close, competitive fight in which Oliveira’s slightly more disciplined striking outpoints Cerrone on the feet. If it goes to the ground, I predict a lot of reversals and submission attempts from both guys, but my gut tells me Oliveira stays a step ahead to win a razor-thin decision. Whatever the outcome, I’m very much looking forward to it, as this fight screams “potential ‘Fight of the Night.’”

Sariahmed: I just don’t buy into Oliveira’s game. A lot of people like him because of the Efrain Escudero bout, but it has been too much too quickly for him. He couldn’t deal with Nik Lentz in a way that a guy with his hype should. Miller ran over him, and now I’m left wondering what to expect of him. This bout against Cerrone is a very good matchup. It’s a manageable fight for a guy on Oliveira’s path and still provides a stiff test. I like Cerrone to win here because he neutralizes the one advantage Oliveira’s had in all his bouts -- his length. Cerrone is a better striker, and, as long as he can defend off his back, there should be no reason he can’t win a decision.

King: I think this one could be “Fight of the Night.” Cerrone has been babied by the UFC so far, and that could come back to haunt him here. Oliveira is a stud at submissions, but he can also bang. Cerrone also has excellent ground skills, but his standup isn’t quite up to par. I think Oliveira wears down Cerrone with some strikes before finishing him on the floor late in the fight.

2011 Picking & Grinning Standings:
Jordan Breen: 112-46
Brian Knapp: 112-46
Tomasz Marciniak: 111-47
Tristen Critchfield: 110-48
Todd Martin: 106-52
Guilherme Pinheiro: 106-52
Freddie DeFreitas: 102-56
Rob King: 102-56
Tony Loiseleur: 100-58
Lutfi Sariahmed: 100-58