Picking and Grinning: UFC 121 Main Card
Jeff Sherwood Oct 23, 2010
Brock
Lesnar vs. Cain
Velasquez
Freddie DeFreitas: While Brock Lesnar may have the size and wrestling advantage, Cain Velasquez's mobility will prove to be the difference in this fight. The hype is real, people: Cain by knockout in the second.
Tristen Critchfield: Each Lesnar bout contains new intrigue.
The former WWE star showed that he had a chin in the first round of
his fight with Shane
Carwin, and managed to gut out a submission victory when
Carwin’s body shut down in round two. Cain Velasquez will have no
such issues against the heavyweight champ, as his conditioning is
unmatched among UFC big men. While he is a more technical striker
and a more accomplished wrestler than Carwin, Velasquez doesn’t
possess the pure size and knockout power of the Grudge MMA product.
Expect Lesnar to control this fight with solid top position, as
well as up against the cage. Velasquez won’t get tired, but Lesnar
will eventually catch him with a barrage of punches. Lesnar by TKO,
round three.
Mike Sloan: This is a very intriguing showdown as both men are absolute giants. Brock is obviously the bigger of the two, as well as the bigger heel. Their wrestling is almost on equal terms, but Lesnar has the slight edge in that area. His strength seems much greater than Cain’s, but Velasquez has much better overall striking ability. “Experts” keep claiming that Cain’s cardio is far superior to that of Lesnar, but I don’t recall ever seeing the former WWE champ looking like B.J. Penn. With that said, look for Lesnar to be the first ever white champion to lose his heavyweight title to a Mexican via third round TKO due to strikes. After the fight, Cain will be drinking white Zinfandel, and eating deer steaks and boiled potatoes in honor of Lesnar's heritage.
Joseph Myers: Lesnar is the bigger man, but Velasquez has the better gas tank. If Velasquez can survive Lesnar's initial surge, his chances of winning go up exponentially. I think Velasquez will be able to take the fight into deep waters and bring home the title. Velasquez by KO, third round.
Mike Whitman: This is a tough one to call. Speed, agility and Latino heat takes on size, strength and Viking power. The decision is made even tougher by the fact that Velasquez has become the chic pick, significantly hurting his “smaller man pulls it all together to overcome the giant” karma that he had going. Despite all this, I still think that Velasquez has the tools to get the job done, and he has the gas tank to succeed where Shane Carwin could not. Cain uses crisp, straight punches to stun the champion and takes advantage of the fact that he’s not carrying 280 pounds of muscle, creating scrambles and out-hustling Lesnar. As the fight wears on, I think Cain will get stronger, and the opposite will be true for Brock. Velasquez by unanimous decision.
Lutfi Sariahmed: I would be thrilled if this just ended up being a straight wrestling bout for five rounds. That's how excited I am. The two biggest keys will be Cain's wrestling and Lesnar's standup. Lesnar has been able to overwhelm his opponents with wrestling, and because it's been as good as it is, he's covered up some of his other deficiencies. Velasquez won't give him that crutch. Then it becomes a question of whether Lesnar can stand with Cain. I'll take Lesnar by decision, but it’s close.
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
Tristen Critchfield: Shields has finished seven of his last nine fights, but there's always the chance he plays it safe under the withering glare of the UFC spotlight. Kampmann has been underrated throughout his career -- that Condit victory is looking better by the day -- but he can be dropped. Finishing on the feet is not Shield's forte, so this one goes the distance, with the former Strikeforce champion doing just enough to win and get a 170-pound title shot down the road. Shields by decision.
Mike Sloan: Shields finally makes his long-awaited debut, and it’s too bad for the Scandinavian-born Kampmann that he’s the one who has to fight Shields. To all the Generation TUF guys out there who only watch the UFC, Shields is the real deal. Look for him to score a lopsided unanimous decision over Kampmann, who’s one of the best in his weight class.
Luca Fury: I think Kampmann has a great style to beat Jake: he's the far superior striker, with a competent ground game and solid takedowns from the clinch. I keep going back and forth on this fight, but I think I'm going to go with Kampmann to win a striking-based decision. Jake Shields has the worst striking of any top 10 pound-for-pound fighter, and that's saying a lot, considering that six of those ten are primarily ground fighters. I think Kampann has one of the better styles to challenge GSP with, too, but I'd still pick GSP to beat him.
Joseph Myers: Shields is making his UFC debut and dropping to 170 after winning the Strikeforce title at 185 pounds. Kampmann won't be a walk in the park for Shields, but Shields will be able to catch him with a submission late. Shields by submission, third round.
Mike Whitman: Obviously, the longer this fight stays standing, the better it is for Kampmann. I have a feeling that won’t be long, however, as Shields will likely close the distance and take it to the floor as soon as possible. From there, it should be academic. Shields by submission in round two.
Lutfi Sariahmed: There's a big Kampmann contingent for this fight, but I just don't see it. Unless Shields has a complete brain fart, a three-round decision win is there for the taking. Kampmann won't be able to get off of his back if Shields puts him there. Now that I've said that, Shields will probably stand with Kampmann and get knocked out in the first.
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez
Freddie DeFreitas: Reuniting with Greg Jackson will prove to be just what the doctor ordered for Diego Sanchez, as the “Nightmare” puts an end to his two-fight losing skid with a hard-earned decision win over the talented Paulo Thiago.
Tristen Critchfield: Sanchez’s reunion with Greg Jackson’s team can only be a positive for the Ultimate Fighter season one winner. It’s Jackson’s attention to small details and emphasis on conditioning that will benefit Sanchez most in this fight. Paulo Thiago is a submission specialist, but the “Nightmare” has never been submitted in 25 fights. Expect Sanchez to make a return to his ground-and-pound style of old and finish the Brazilian for the first time in his career. Sanchez by TKO, round two.
Mike Sloan: Sanchez badly needs a win to regain any foothold in the welterweight division. I really thought he would have won a title by now, but his career has taken and up and down path. With that said, he’ll have his hands full with Thiago and will struggle in this one. This should be a contender for “Fight of the Night,” but Diego will have his hand raised after a close, exciting unanimous decision.
Luca Fury: Diego needs a win badly, so I think he'll fight to his strengths and get a win by decision. Paulo is a tough guy, but he's overrated and his wrestling is bad. Diego's bread-and-butter is takedowns and offense from the top, and Thiago doesn't seem to be too good off his back, especially for a BJJ black belt. I think the fight goes like Thiago/Kampmann did, with Diego winning a decision.
Joseph Myers: Sanchez, a former 155-pound title challenger, is back at 170 and Thiago is going to be a tall order for him. Both men like submissions, but Thiago is the bigger man and he'll be able to stay away from Sanchez's ground game. Thiago by unanimous decision.
Mike Whitman: Both men have beaten some stiff competition, but both men also just got knocked down a notch. Sanchez was outclassed in his loss to John Hathaway, who was just outclassed by veteran Mike Pyle last weekend at UFC 120. Thiago can look like a world-beater at times, mostly due to his powerful-yet-erratic standup and potent submission game (see: his fight with Mike Swick). I’m on the fence, but my gut says that Sanchez uses his technically superior boxing to set up takedowns and stifles Thiago’s submission attempts while landing ground and pound for three rounds. Sanchez by unanimous decision.
Lutfi Sariahmed: If we're to assume Diego's a rejuvenated fighter after going back to Greg Jackson, we already know what that fighter is. He's great in a scramble spot, but generates a majority of his offense from that position. It's hard to see him being that much different. If that's the Diego we're going to see, I still favor Thiago, because his BJJ game is just as good as Diego's and he's better on the feet. Thiago wins in the first by knockout.
Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Tristen Critchfield: It seems like only yesterday that Michael Bisping was getting jealous of Ortiz’s poorly-disguised affinity for Hamill on season three of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Four years later, Ortiz is fighting Hamill in the always-enticing teacher vs. pupil storyline. Ortiz blamed a fractured skull for his performance in a loss to Forrest Griffin. Hamill has benefited from some untimely fouls in victories over Keith Jardine and Jon Jones. Call it a hunch, but Ortiz gets back in the win column against his TUF protege. Ortiz by decision.
Mike Sloan: Wow, who would have ever thought we’d see the day when Tito would fight his favorite pupil from “The Ultimate Fighter?” This fight would be full of intrigue had these two fighters suffered a terrible public breakup, but oh well. The fight alone will have to suffice. I see this one being one of the more dull fights on the bill, and the end result won’t do wonders for Ortiz’ career in the UFC. Hopefully his neck and spine are in tip-top shape, but I just have a feeling that Ortiz will be plagued by this forever. I hope I’m wrong, but I think Ortiz plays it a little too safe and drops a disputed split decision to Hamill.
Luca Fury: Tough fight to call. Hamill isn't particularly skilled, but Tito has looked terrible for the past many years. I'll go Tito by a sloppy decision based on being the more skilled striker. (I never thought I would ever say Tito is "the more skilled striker" in an MMA fight.)
Joseph Myers: Ortiz tries to stay relevant by taking on one of his former "Ultimate Fighter" pupils in Hamill. Yes, Jon Jones -- another wrestler -- was thumping Hamill before he got disqualified, but Ortiz is not, nor was he ever, anything like by Jon Jones. Ortiz's injuries and time away from the cage catch up to him in this one. Hamill by unanimous decision.
Mike Whitman: It’s hard to find a place where Ortiz has the advantage in this fight. Hamill is a better wrestler, has heavier hands and he has far fewer miles on his MMA odometer. I think Tito will put on a game performance, but I just don’t think he has the tools to deal with an animal like Hamill. Ortiz makes it interesting for the first round before Hamill turns up the heat. Hamill by TKO, round three.
Lutfi Sariahmed: Better question: someone tell me how Tito will win Anyone? Hamill by decision.
Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Tristen Critchfield: It's unlikely that this one sees a second round. All of Schaub's seven MMA bouts have ended in the first round, as have Gonzaga's last five. “The Hybrid” has improved by leaps and bounds since his loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF 10 finale. Gonzaga, meanwhile, seems to be running in place: too good to lose to lesser competition, not quite able to knock off the top guys. Schaub has the look of a rising star. Schaub by KO, round one.
Mike Sloan: Gonzaga is one of the top heavies in the sport. People don’t really know that because he tends to always lose the biggest fights he’s in. This isn’t one of them, and he’ll look sensational in knocking Schaub dead out late in the first. It won’t be right kick/hospital/”CroCop” great, but it’ll be a good one. It’ll come from a punch, and then ground-and-pound.
Luca Fury: Another tough fight to call. Schaub's chin could get him in trouble here, but I think he'll ultimately get a TKO win. Gonzaga may have early success, but he's a frontrunner who folds when hit. Schaub by (T)KO in the third.
Joseph Myers: Schaub takes a big step up in competition in this one, and I don't think he's ready for it. Gonzaga has been in with the much better opposition, even if he has lost two of his last three. Gonzaga gets back on track and stalls the Schaub hype train. Gonzaga by knockout, first round.
Mike Whitman: Gonzaga is a tough nut to crack. He’s a really talented fighter, but his lack of consistency has cost him time and time again. On the flip side, it’s hard to know if Schaub is for real. Despite his tidy record, the only real opponent he’s faced knocked him cold at the TUF 10 finale. I’m going with Gonzaga, simply because he’s repeatedly faced a level of competition that Schaub has tasted for less than a round. It may not be pretty, but Gabe will get it done. Gonzaga by submission, round two.
Lutfi Sariahmed: I love this bout, and it's at best the fourth best fight on the card. I don't think Schaub's quite ready yet for this, though. Gonzaga can still win these bouts. He's just struggling with the better competition in the heavyweight division. Schaub's not there yet. Gonzaga by KO in the second.
Freddie DeFreitas: While Brock Lesnar may have the size and wrestling advantage, Cain Velasquez's mobility will prove to be the difference in this fight. The hype is real, people: Cain by knockout in the second.
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Mike Sloan: This is a very intriguing showdown as both men are absolute giants. Brock is obviously the bigger of the two, as well as the bigger heel. Their wrestling is almost on equal terms, but Lesnar has the slight edge in that area. His strength seems much greater than Cain’s, but Velasquez has much better overall striking ability. “Experts” keep claiming that Cain’s cardio is far superior to that of Lesnar, but I don’t recall ever seeing the former WWE champ looking like B.J. Penn. With that said, look for Lesnar to be the first ever white champion to lose his heavyweight title to a Mexican via third round TKO due to strikes. After the fight, Cain will be drinking white Zinfandel, and eating deer steaks and boiled potatoes in honor of Lesnar's heritage.
Luca Fury: When the fight is on the feet, I think Cain
outboxes Lesnar handily. I think Lesnar's only shot is to get a
stoppage from ground-and-pound early in the fight, before he tires.
Brock might get some takedowns in the first couple rounds, but Cain
will get back up relatively quickly each time. Lesnar's takedown
success percentage in this fight will probably be under 50 percent,
due to him desperately shooting from the outside while getting lit
up with strikes. Ultimately, I think Lesnar tires mid-to-late in
the fight, gets dropped or falls on his own, and Cain polishes him
off with a TKO or sub on the ground. If Cain doesn't get a finish,
I think he at least gets a decision win. I wouldn't be shocked if
Lesnar stopped him early with ground-and-pound, though.
Joseph Myers: Lesnar is the bigger man, but Velasquez has the better gas tank. If Velasquez can survive Lesnar's initial surge, his chances of winning go up exponentially. I think Velasquez will be able to take the fight into deep waters and bring home the title. Velasquez by KO, third round.
Mike Whitman: This is a tough one to call. Speed, agility and Latino heat takes on size, strength and Viking power. The decision is made even tougher by the fact that Velasquez has become the chic pick, significantly hurting his “smaller man pulls it all together to overcome the giant” karma that he had going. Despite all this, I still think that Velasquez has the tools to get the job done, and he has the gas tank to succeed where Shane Carwin could not. Cain uses crisp, straight punches to stun the champion and takes advantage of the fact that he’s not carrying 280 pounds of muscle, creating scrambles and out-hustling Lesnar. As the fight wears on, I think Cain will get stronger, and the opposite will be true for Brock. Velasquez by unanimous decision.
Lutfi Sariahmed: I would be thrilled if this just ended up being a straight wrestling bout for five rounds. That's how excited I am. The two biggest keys will be Cain's wrestling and Lesnar's standup. Lesnar has been able to overwhelm his opponents with wrestling, and because it's been as good as it is, he's covered up some of his other deficiencies. Velasquez won't give him that crutch. Then it becomes a question of whether Lesnar can stand with Cain. I'll take Lesnar by decision, but it’s close.
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
Tristen Critchfield: Shields has finished seven of his last nine fights, but there's always the chance he plays it safe under the withering glare of the UFC spotlight. Kampmann has been underrated throughout his career -- that Condit victory is looking better by the day -- but he can be dropped. Finishing on the feet is not Shield's forte, so this one goes the distance, with the former Strikeforce champion doing just enough to win and get a 170-pound title shot down the road. Shields by decision.
Mike Sloan: Shields finally makes his long-awaited debut, and it’s too bad for the Scandinavian-born Kampmann that he’s the one who has to fight Shields. To all the Generation TUF guys out there who only watch the UFC, Shields is the real deal. Look for him to score a lopsided unanimous decision over Kampmann, who’s one of the best in his weight class.
Luca Fury: I think Kampmann has a great style to beat Jake: he's the far superior striker, with a competent ground game and solid takedowns from the clinch. I keep going back and forth on this fight, but I think I'm going to go with Kampmann to win a striking-based decision. Jake Shields has the worst striking of any top 10 pound-for-pound fighter, and that's saying a lot, considering that six of those ten are primarily ground fighters. I think Kampann has one of the better styles to challenge GSP with, too, but I'd still pick GSP to beat him.
Joseph Myers: Shields is making his UFC debut and dropping to 170 after winning the Strikeforce title at 185 pounds. Kampmann won't be a walk in the park for Shields, but Shields will be able to catch him with a submission late. Shields by submission, third round.
Mike Whitman: Obviously, the longer this fight stays standing, the better it is for Kampmann. I have a feeling that won’t be long, however, as Shields will likely close the distance and take it to the floor as soon as possible. From there, it should be academic. Shields by submission in round two.
Lutfi Sariahmed: There's a big Kampmann contingent for this fight, but I just don't see it. Unless Shields has a complete brain fart, a three-round decision win is there for the taking. Kampmann won't be able to get off of his back if Shields puts him there. Now that I've said that, Shields will probably stand with Kampmann and get knocked out in the first.
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez
Freddie DeFreitas: Reuniting with Greg Jackson will prove to be just what the doctor ordered for Diego Sanchez, as the “Nightmare” puts an end to his two-fight losing skid with a hard-earned decision win over the talented Paulo Thiago.
Tristen Critchfield: Sanchez’s reunion with Greg Jackson’s team can only be a positive for the Ultimate Fighter season one winner. It’s Jackson’s attention to small details and emphasis on conditioning that will benefit Sanchez most in this fight. Paulo Thiago is a submission specialist, but the “Nightmare” has never been submitted in 25 fights. Expect Sanchez to make a return to his ground-and-pound style of old and finish the Brazilian for the first time in his career. Sanchez by TKO, round two.
Mike Sloan: Sanchez badly needs a win to regain any foothold in the welterweight division. I really thought he would have won a title by now, but his career has taken and up and down path. With that said, he’ll have his hands full with Thiago and will struggle in this one. This should be a contender for “Fight of the Night,” but Diego will have his hand raised after a close, exciting unanimous decision.
Luca Fury: Diego needs a win badly, so I think he'll fight to his strengths and get a win by decision. Paulo is a tough guy, but he's overrated and his wrestling is bad. Diego's bread-and-butter is takedowns and offense from the top, and Thiago doesn't seem to be too good off his back, especially for a BJJ black belt. I think the fight goes like Thiago/Kampmann did, with Diego winning a decision.
Joseph Myers: Sanchez, a former 155-pound title challenger, is back at 170 and Thiago is going to be a tall order for him. Both men like submissions, but Thiago is the bigger man and he'll be able to stay away from Sanchez's ground game. Thiago by unanimous decision.
Mike Whitman: Both men have beaten some stiff competition, but both men also just got knocked down a notch. Sanchez was outclassed in his loss to John Hathaway, who was just outclassed by veteran Mike Pyle last weekend at UFC 120. Thiago can look like a world-beater at times, mostly due to his powerful-yet-erratic standup and potent submission game (see: his fight with Mike Swick). I’m on the fence, but my gut says that Sanchez uses his technically superior boxing to set up takedowns and stifles Thiago’s submission attempts while landing ground and pound for three rounds. Sanchez by unanimous decision.
Lutfi Sariahmed: If we're to assume Diego's a rejuvenated fighter after going back to Greg Jackson, we already know what that fighter is. He's great in a scramble spot, but generates a majority of his offense from that position. It's hard to see him being that much different. If that's the Diego we're going to see, I still favor Thiago, because his BJJ game is just as good as Diego's and he's better on the feet. Thiago wins in the first by knockout.
Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Tristen Critchfield: It seems like only yesterday that Michael Bisping was getting jealous of Ortiz’s poorly-disguised affinity for Hamill on season three of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Four years later, Ortiz is fighting Hamill in the always-enticing teacher vs. pupil storyline. Ortiz blamed a fractured skull for his performance in a loss to Forrest Griffin. Hamill has benefited from some untimely fouls in victories over Keith Jardine and Jon Jones. Call it a hunch, but Ortiz gets back in the win column against his TUF protege. Ortiz by decision.
Mike Sloan: Wow, who would have ever thought we’d see the day when Tito would fight his favorite pupil from “The Ultimate Fighter?” This fight would be full of intrigue had these two fighters suffered a terrible public breakup, but oh well. The fight alone will have to suffice. I see this one being one of the more dull fights on the bill, and the end result won’t do wonders for Ortiz’ career in the UFC. Hopefully his neck and spine are in tip-top shape, but I just have a feeling that Ortiz will be plagued by this forever. I hope I’m wrong, but I think Ortiz plays it a little too safe and drops a disputed split decision to Hamill.
Luca Fury: Tough fight to call. Hamill isn't particularly skilled, but Tito has looked terrible for the past many years. I'll go Tito by a sloppy decision based on being the more skilled striker. (I never thought I would ever say Tito is "the more skilled striker" in an MMA fight.)
Joseph Myers: Ortiz tries to stay relevant by taking on one of his former "Ultimate Fighter" pupils in Hamill. Yes, Jon Jones -- another wrestler -- was thumping Hamill before he got disqualified, but Ortiz is not, nor was he ever, anything like by Jon Jones. Ortiz's injuries and time away from the cage catch up to him in this one. Hamill by unanimous decision.
Mike Whitman: It’s hard to find a place where Ortiz has the advantage in this fight. Hamill is a better wrestler, has heavier hands and he has far fewer miles on his MMA odometer. I think Tito will put on a game performance, but I just don’t think he has the tools to deal with an animal like Hamill. Ortiz makes it interesting for the first round before Hamill turns up the heat. Hamill by TKO, round three.
Lutfi Sariahmed: Better question: someone tell me how Tito will win Anyone? Hamill by decision.
Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Tristen Critchfield: It's unlikely that this one sees a second round. All of Schaub's seven MMA bouts have ended in the first round, as have Gonzaga's last five. “The Hybrid” has improved by leaps and bounds since his loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF 10 finale. Gonzaga, meanwhile, seems to be running in place: too good to lose to lesser competition, not quite able to knock off the top guys. Schaub has the look of a rising star. Schaub by KO, round one.
Mike Sloan: Gonzaga is one of the top heavies in the sport. People don’t really know that because he tends to always lose the biggest fights he’s in. This isn’t one of them, and he’ll look sensational in knocking Schaub dead out late in the first. It won’t be right kick/hospital/”CroCop” great, but it’ll be a good one. It’ll come from a punch, and then ground-and-pound.
Luca Fury: Another tough fight to call. Schaub's chin could get him in trouble here, but I think he'll ultimately get a TKO win. Gonzaga may have early success, but he's a frontrunner who folds when hit. Schaub by (T)KO in the third.
Joseph Myers: Schaub takes a big step up in competition in this one, and I don't think he's ready for it. Gonzaga has been in with the much better opposition, even if he has lost two of his last three. Gonzaga gets back on track and stalls the Schaub hype train. Gonzaga by knockout, first round.
Mike Whitman: Gonzaga is a tough nut to crack. He’s a really talented fighter, but his lack of consistency has cost him time and time again. On the flip side, it’s hard to know if Schaub is for real. Despite his tidy record, the only real opponent he’s faced knocked him cold at the TUF 10 finale. I’m going with Gonzaga, simply because he’s repeatedly faced a level of competition that Schaub has tasted for less than a round. It may not be pretty, but Gabe will get it done. Gonzaga by submission, round two.
Lutfi Sariahmed: I love this bout, and it's at best the fourth best fight on the card. I don't think Schaub's quite ready yet for this, though. Gonzaga can still win these bouts. He's just struggling with the better competition in the heavyweight division. Schaub's not there yet. Gonzaga by KO in the second.
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