UFC Fight Night 25 Preview: The Main Card

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The welterweight division gets some clarity on Saturday, as the two Jakes -- Jake Shields and Jake Ellenberger -- square off in the UFC Fight Night 25 main event at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans.

The matchup asks compelling questions, especially in the context of Shields’ decision loss to welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre in April. Can the former Strikeforce titleholder recapture the magic that made him a favorite among hardcore fans? Or is Ellenberger part of a new breed poised to replace Shields and elite welterweight contemporaries like Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck?

Shields has never gone away easily, even when it appeared the heavy-handed Dan Henderson was about to hand him his head in the first round of their bout in April 2010. Durable and eminently composed, he turned the tables and dominated the rest of the five-round fight.

In other featured matchups at UFC Fight Night 25, Alan Belcher returns to take on Canadian veteran Jason MacDonald; “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 11 winner Court McGee locks horns with Dongi Yang; and Erik Koch meets “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 12 winner Jonathan Brookins. Here is a closer look at UFC Fight Night 25, with previews and picks.

Welterweights
Jake Shields (26-5-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5, 4-1 UFC)

The Matchup: There are close fights, and then there are bouts like this one, which could be decided by a single takedown attempt or meaningful strike to decide a razor-thin round.

Shields came up flat in his UFC 129 decision loss to Georges St. Pierre. He was unable to get untracked and use his vaunted ground game, as GSP simply turned it into a sparring session, loathe to let Shields close the gap. Ellenberger, meanwhile, has clawed his way up the ranks with some fairly impressive performances. After losing a close decision to former WEC champion Carlos Condit -- in a fight many felt Ellenberger won -- he has strung together four strong outings, showing a blend of standup competency, intense wrestling and cardio that has him on the cusp of breaking into the division’s Top 5. With his reputation for durability and outstanding grappling, Shields represents the last hill Ellenberger will have to scale to prove he belongs here.

In the standup, Ellenberger has a clear edge. He hits hard and has good technical delivery on his shots, along with the confidence to unload knowing he can turn the fight with one solid blow. His ride-out-the-storm approach was evident in his decision over Carlos Eduardo Rocha, who unleashed a dizzying slew of impressive submission attempts in the opening round of their bout, only to have Ellenberger escape each one in one of the more thrilling grappling sequences one will ever see. Shields’ submissions and excellent wrestling pose some challenges here, as he is exceptionally tough to control on the mat. Shields’ standup is still pretty much a caveat to forcing a ground fight, but his ability to time takedown attempts while opponents try to knock off his head is uncanny.

It is a definite cat-and-mouse game, and cardio will play a big role. That is an area where Ellenberger is exceptionally solid, while Shields has been inconsistent in the past.

This is two fights for Ellenberger: the early part, where he should take a sprawl-and-brawl approach and use his better standup, and the second half, where he should look to hit takedowns and outwork Shields to secure rounds. Ellenberger showed a penchant for timing takedowns in the closing seconds of rounds against Rocha, which helped put a tough decision win on his resume. Doing it too early only gives Shields more chances to sweep or uncork submission attempts.

The Pick: This is a difficult match to call, but Ellenberger’s heavier hands, pace and conditioning ultimately allow him to pull out a close decision win, especially if he can force Shields to trade early and deny him takedowns.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: Dongi Yang vs. Court McGee