Preview: UFC 254 ‘Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje’

Middleweights

Jared Cannonier (13-4) vs. Robert Whittaker (21-5)

ODDS: Cannonier (-115), Whittaker (-105)

If he can get a win here, Cannonier is the next man up for middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, which would make quite the rise for the Alaskan since his UFC debut. Cannonier did not make much of an impression upon hitting the Octagon. He was a relatively anonymous heavyweight with a weak record coming in, and Shawn Jordan blasted him in under three minutes. However, the “Killa Gorilla” eventually cut down to light heavyweight and started making a name for himself. He could not get the wins to truly establish himself as a contender, but Cannonier proved to be a tough out who could consistently bring a fun fight to his opponents. After plateauing at 205 pounds, Cannonier announced another cut down in weight class, and middleweight has turned out to suit him quite well. He stepped in on late notice against David Branch and figured to get outwrestled. That indeed happened for a round, but by the time Round 2 came along, Cannonier—who now appeared to be chiseled out of granite—managed to crack Branch for the knockout and put himself on the 185-pound radar. Since then, power has been the name of the game for Cannonier, who stopped Anderson Silva and Jack Hermansson in 2019. Cannonier’s striking game may be pared down, but he remains dangerous throughout his fights, and while his takedown defense still is not particularly strong, his horsepower has made it difficult for his opponents to control that phase of the fight. At 36, Cannonier probably does not have much time left as an elite middleweight, but he is peaking at exactly the right time to present a problem for Whittaker and punch his ticket to middleweight gold in the process.

Whittaker has traveled the opposite path of Cannonier, instead showing the benefit of moving up a weight class. After winning “The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes” in 2012, “The Reaper” found himself somewhat rudderless at welterweight after two straight losses. However, a move to middleweight quickly paid dividends, as the additional speed advantage allowed Whittaker’s boxing and defense to immediately click against slower opponents. As Whittaker racked up win after win to climb the 185-pound ladder, it became apparent that he could be this generation’s breakout star for Australia and New Zealand; and two wins over Yoel Romero eventually established Whittaker as the middleweight kingpin. Unfortunately for Whittaker, he never truly got his moment to return to Australia as a conquering hero, despite the UFC’s efforts to book him as a headliner in the region. A title defense against Luke Rockhold was scuttled due to a Whittaker staph infection, and his 2019 title defense against Kelvin Gastelum was scrapped on hours’ notice due to a horrifying combination of an abdominal hernia and a collapsed bowel. By the time Whittaker was in position to return, Israel Adesanya was the new man Down Under. He essentially stole all of Whittaker’s thunder—along with his middleweight championship—with a one-sided win that raised concerns about the oft-injured veteran’s future. After taking some time off due to burnout, Whittaker returned against Darren Till in July with a performance that was a mixed bag. He still showed some of the same defensive concerns that led Adesanya to his victory, but overall, he was much more measured and patient about picking his spots and putting himself in danger. While Whittaker looks far from done, there is some worry that he will not be able to recapture the success that made him one of the UFC’s brightest talents, and this fight against Cannonier is going to tell us a great deal about his direction going forward.

Even beyond the stakes of the winner getting a title shot, this should help answer some big questions about where both men fall in terms of competing at an elite level. Adesanya exposed Whittaker’s willingness to overextend himself when throwing his offense, and he had a feast countering most of what the then-champion had to offer as a result. While Whittaker was much more patient and reserved about picking his spots to attack, it was essentially the same old story when he started throwing against Till, only this time against a less effective marksman. It seems likely Whittaker will get hit, and then the question becomes exactly how far Cannonier’s power can take him. The Romero fights alone have earned Whittaker the benefit of the doubt when it comes to durability, but even if he is the much quicker and technically deep fighter, that may not matter if Cannonier has the type of power at middleweight that can put him out in just one shot. This is one of the most difficult fights on the card to call, simply because it is impossible to tell what will happen when Whittaker’s durability and Cannonier’s power inevitably intersect. Even if there is not a clean knockout, the combination of power and opportunity makes it hard not to favor Cannonier. The pick is Cannonier via second-round stoppage.

Continue Reading » Volkov vs. Harris