Preview: UFC 287 ‘Pereira vs. Adesanya 2’

Welterweights

#5 WW | Gilbert Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC) vs. #11 WW | Jorge Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC)

ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Is this Masvidal’s last stand? A pro since 2003 and a longtime favorite of the hardcore audience, Masvidal took years to become an overnight sensation with an all-timer of a breakout year in 2019. Masvidal was always a talented fighter who often gave away fights by coasting on his own success, so it was not a surprise when his career took off after he found some aggression, with a 2017 knockout of Donald Cerrone putting him on the fringes of the title picture. However, after a narrow decision loss to Demian Maia and a much clearer defeat against Stephen Thompson, it looked like Masvidal’s late-career championship window had closed, particularly after he essentially fell off the radar for all of 2018. Upon Masvidal’s return, he was set up to be the clear B-side in a main event opposite Darren Till in London, which made it a mild surprise when he closed the show with a brutal knockout in the second round. That set Masvidal up for a fight against Ben Askren that was intriguing on paper and turned into a star-making performance for “Gamebred” in practice. Masvidal ran in with a flying knee that immediately knocked Askren unconscious, earning the Miami native the quickest knockout in UFC history and a status as one of promotion’s biggest draws. The momentum from the Askren knockout was enough that Masvidal’s next fight was able to headline Madison Square Garden against Nate Diaz, and a win there marked him as the next contender for the welterweight title. Since then, Masvidal's career has remained commercially viable but seen little in the way of actual in-cage success. Title fights against Kamaru Usman saw him lose via uneventful grind and vicious knockout, and a main event grudge match against Colby Covington in 2022 saw Masvidal have less success during the fight than he did attacking his counterpart outside of a steakhouse shortly thereafter. Now 38 years old and theoretically a made man financially, it is easy to see Masvidal calling it a career if he loses in his hometown; or he could turn back the clock to stave off Gilbert Burns.

Burns is not all that much younger than Masvidal but still feels like a title contender truly in his prime. He debuted in the UFC as a top lightweight prospect in 2014 but seemed to eventually settle in somewhere between a threatening specialist and an outright bust. A highly decorated grappler, Burns was capable of some wizardry on the mat and developed some knockout power, but he often got stalled out to a surprising degree against stronger opposition. However, he was apparently considered dangerous enough that he had trouble finding willing opponents at 155 pounds, so in 2019, he took a late-notice welterweight fight against Alexey Kunchenko and changed the course of his career. Freed from a brutal weight cut, Burns was suddenly a much more effective and consistent pressure fighter who carried his strength and power up to 170 pounds, allowing him to effectively bully and outwrestle his opponents while also providing a striking threat. Within 10 months of the Kunchenko fight, Burns had racked up four straight wins at welterweight to make himself Usman’s top contender—even if he had to wait things out due to a case of COVID-19 and Usman fighting Masvidal instead. Burns’ title challenge was a fun ride, as he forced Usman to stage a comeback from some early trouble. He has managed to stick around as a contender in the two years since. A loss to Khamzat Chimaev was a war that did not dull Burns’ stock at all, and that came between dominant wins over Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. There is a solid chance for Burns to make a statement here, as he appears to be a rough matchup for Masvidal at this point of their respective careers. Masvidal still has the tendency to cede ground more often than not, and Burns has typically been smart about immediately getting to the best parts of his game. There is some intrigue, as Masvidal is an underrated grappler who has historically been difficult to submit, and Burns may start to flag by the third round even in a winning performance. Nevertheless, the broad strokes of this fight clearly favor Burns, particularly with the chance to try and crash the party for a welterweight title shot. The pick is Burns via first-round submission.

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Pereira vs. Adesanya
Burns vs. Masvidal
Yanez vs. Font
Holland vs. Ponzinibbio
Rosas Jr. vs. Rodriguez
The Prelims