Preview: UFC 288 ‘Sterling vs. Cejudo’

Welterweights

#5WW | Gilbert Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC) vs. #4 WW | Belal Muhammad (22-3, 13-3 UFC)

ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)

The UFC seems set to give Colby Covington the next title shot at welterweight, but there is still time for Burns or Muhammad to change the promotion’s mind with an impressive performance here. Burns came to the UFC as a top lightweight prospect back in 2014 thanks to his elite grappling, but after a few years, it looked like “Durinho” would never fully turn the corner to contender status. He would show flashes of some impressive striking to fully round out his game but then suffer a disheartening setback against the likes of Michel Prazeres and Dan Hooker. Still, Burns’ reputation as a terror on the mat left him unable to consistently find opponents, leading him to take a late-notice fight up at welterweight against Alexey Kunchenko—a decision that wound up changing his career. Things may have been clicking at the right time regardless, but Burns freeing himself from his brutal weight cut allowed him to suddenly become a much more consistent and effective pressure fighter. If Burns was undersized, he was not underpowered, wrestling his way to a four-fight winning streak—a knockout of Demian Maia was one of the highlights—and becoming the welterweight division’s top contender in less than a year. Burns had to wait for his shot against Kamaru Usman, but he nearly cashed in big on the opportunity. He put Usman in as much trouble as anyone prior to Leon Edwards in what turned out to be a come-from-behind stoppage win for “The Nigerian Nightmare.” Burns has recovered by winning three of his four fights since, and even that lone loss was probably a net positive for his career. He went toe-to-toe with Khamzat Chimaev in one of the best fights of 2022, and his standing has not suffered much with the Chechen-born Swede now unable to make the welterweight limit and jump Burns in line. Burns has basically done all he can to try and storm the title picture in 2023, as this already marks his third fight of the calendar year. While he absolutely ran through Neil Magny in January, his April win over Jorge Masvidal was flat enough to raise some worries that Burns might be burning himself out in his late 30s. At any rate, if this is the last charge to championship glory for Burns, he is making it count, particularly if he can get the win against Muhammad.

While Burns felt like the type of talent who would inevitably make his way to a title shot, Muhammad’s march up the ladder has been the opposite. Muhammad was a top welterweight prospect when the UFC signed him in 2016, but the worry was that “Remember The Name” would struggle with the transition from regional champion to UFC hopeful. Never a standout athlete, Muhammad relied on breaking down his opponents over multiple rounds, suggesting that he simply would not have enough time to work with while also facing much better opposition. Muhammad’s rough start to his UFC career seemed to back up those concerns, as he dropped two of his first three fights and got knocked out quickly by Vicente Luque. However, Muhammad has turned a corner since and has not really looked back. Muhammad picked up the pace and found a four-fight winning streak until he ran into Geoff Neal back in 2019, which turned out to be more speed bump than plateau, as he is undefeated in his nine fights since. There is a general feeling that Muhammad’s lack of high-level athleticism or one standout skill will cost him at some point, but he is one of the best strategists in the game, using his versatility and gas tank to overcome what would seemingly be some rough style matchups. Muhammad’s last three fights have seen him outwrestle Stephen Thompson, avenge his loss against Luque and absolutely take apart undefeated prospect Sean Brady for his first stoppage win in three years. Rather than hit a ceiling, Muhammad seems to be meeting the moment and reaching his best form as he faces his best competition, which gives him a solid chance at the biggest win of his career in this assignment. Of note: Attempting to outwrestle Muhammad has never been a path to success. While he has used his offensive wrestling to impressive results recently, his win over Brady served as a reminder that Muhammad is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the division, as he completely shut out what looks to be an ox of a talent. The concern is that Burns only needs one of those takedowns to find a submission finish while also having five rounds with which to work. Beyond that, he is the type of pressuring striker with knockout power who could make all of that moot with a hot start. With Burns’ last performance falling flat, his having fought just four weeks ago and his counterpart’s newfound ability to keep fighting the perfect fight, the bet is that Muhammad can frustrate the Brazilian early and tire him out enough to take over this fight late. The pick is Muhammad via fourth-round stoppage.

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Sterling vs. Cejudo
Burns vs. Muhammad
Andrade vs. Yan
Evloev vs. Lopes
Jourdain vs. Gracie
The Prelims