Preview: UFC 289 ‘Nunes vs. Aldana’

Lightweights

#4 LW | Beneil Dariush (22-4-1, 16-4-1 UFC) vs. #1 LW | Charles Oliveira (33-9, 21-9 UFC)

ODDS: Dariush (-140), Oliveira (+120)

Now that it is in the rearview mirror, it is worth appreciating the wild ride that was Oliveira’s lightweight title reign. “Do Bronx” burst onto the scene as one of the sport’s most electric prospects as a 20-year-old back in 2010, scoring a highlight-reel submission of Darren Elkins and tapping out Efrain Escudero. From there, he became a precautionary tale for the UFC’s aggressive matchmaking, getting thrown to the wolves against veterans like Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone and Cub Swanson, all of whom managed to blow open the holes in Oliveira’s game. That led to Oliveira’s reputation as a talented flake, capable of submitting any opponent on the roster while also potentially crumbling in any moment of adversity. By the time Oliveira lost in one-sided fashion to Paul Felder to cap off 2017, the die had seemingly been cast for his career. Oliveira’s next few wins did not do much to change his narrative, but a February 2019 victory over David Teymur seemed to prove that he had cleared a mental hurdle. It was the type of frustrating and foul-filled fight that would have typically taken Oliveira out of his game, but instead, he managed to regroup for the fourth stop in what turned out to be an 11-fight winning streak. Oliveira eventually won the vacant lightweight title in 2021, beating Michael Chandler in a five-minute barnburner that showed all the positives and negatives of what has become his signature approach. The Brazilian fights behind constant pressure, and while he may get blasted at times, the bet is that by falling to his back, the threat of his grappling can buy enough time to regroup and eventually survive long enough to turn things around. It felt like Oliveira was walking a razor’s edge in fights against Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, but he came out the victor in all three. The good times finally came to an end against Islam Makhachev, whose wrestling acumen gave him little fear of Oliveira on the ground and allowed him to essentially exploit the Brazilian’s weaknesses. The one-sided result of their fight may make it hard for Oliveira to earn a rematch in the short term, but he brings enough violence to the proceedings to still be a bankable challenger with a few wins, one of which potentially comes here against Dariush.

Dariush never displayed the obvious mental struggles that marred the worst stretches of Oliveira’s career, but he has also found a new level of success by learning to embrace the madness of mixed martial arts. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace with a well-studied striking game, Dariush had the look of a potential title contender upon hitting the UFC. He was prone to some lapses, such as getting sparked by Ramsey Nijem in his second UFC fight or suffering a shocking submission loss to Michael Chiesa in 2016, but the general consensus was that Dariush was practiced and consistent enough to eventually keep working his way up the ladder into the higher tiers of the UFC’s historically deepest division. Then 2017 hit. Dariush was doing well against Edson Barboza up until the point that he got obliterated with a flying knee, but he followed that up with a flat performance in a draw against Evan Dunham. With that as the backdrop to Dariush’s first fight of 2018, which then saw him get flattened in 42 seconds by late replacement Alexander Hernandez, questions subsequently lingered as to whether he was chinny enough to suddenly be past his prime. Dariush righted the ship a bit in his next few fights, mostly by leaning on his wrestling and grappling, but there was not much evidence of any sort of breakthrough until his 2020 bout against Drakkar Klose. The Fight Ready rep seemingly had Dariush on the ropes for a near knockout but instead seemed to awaken something in him. Dariush started marching Klose down while throwing like a wildman, eventually earning a particularly brutal knockout. Things have not been quite that spectacular the whole rest of the way for Dariush, but the general outline remains the same. Dariush has unlocked a new level of aggression that has made him a consistently difficult force for opponents to deal with; he even outlasted Diego Ferreira and Mateusz Gamrot in the type of wrestling-heavy fights in which both opponents have typically thrived. This does all look to mean that Dariush is in the best form yet to take on a challenge like this version of Oliveira, but given the aggression that both men now bring to the table, this is essentially a coinflip. Dariush does have the combination of grappling skill and lack of fear that could lead him to replicate Makhachev’s performance against the former champ, but he is also a much more defensively flammable fighter to the Russian. The lean is that Dariush can survive things long enough to break Oliveira first, but a result either way would not be a shock. The pick is Dariush via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Nunes vs. Aldana
Dariush vs. Oliveira
Malott vs. Fugitt
Ige vs. Landwehr
Barriault vs. Anders
The Prelims