UFC News & FeaturesHeavyweights
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC) vs. #11 HW | Derrick Lewis (26-11, 17-9 UFC)ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)
This looks to be the last late-career slide for Lewis, but perhaps “The Black Beast” can turn things around enough for the end to at least come with some positive feelings. Lewis took the UFC by storm quickly upon his 2014 debut thanks to his brutal knockouts and standout charisma, but losses to Matt Mitrione and Shawn Jordan shortly thereafter raised the worry that he might be a flash in the pan. Instead, a win over Viktor Pesta showed the first seeds of what would become a winning approach for Lewis. As a massive man with a solid level of durability and the ability to end a fight in an instant, Lewis learned to just stay patient and wait for his opportunities. Opponents would either blink first on the feet and leave themselves open for a Lewis knockout, or just wear themselves out attempting to outwrestle him and become easy pickings in the later rounds. It earned Lewis win after win, a record-setting number of knockouts and even a few title shots. However, since a 2021 loss in an interim title fight against Ciryl Gane, it feels like Lewis has lost the plot. Gane always would have been a fighter built to pick the New Orleans native apart as one of the few heavyweights capable of some fluid range striking, so it is understandable that Lewis would try to overcompensate in the form of more aggression. While that worked against Chris Daukaus, Lewis’ three subsequent losses have felt a lot like his defeats nearly a decade ago, with the former Legacy Fighting Championship titleholder forcing more exchanges that leave him on the losing end. His February loss to Sergey Spivak was a particularly worrying sign that things might be falling apart for Lewis entirely. Lewis has typically been able to handle low-powered wrestlers without much issue, but Spivak rag-dolled him ahead of a quick submission win. That all sets the stage for what could be a tough fight against Rogerio de Lima, who is only a few months younger than Lewis but may somehow be hitting his stride at age 38. Rogerio de Lima spent years as a light heavyweight before moving up to heavyweight, and his fights at 205 pounds were a fairly simple proposition. He would hunt for a quick knockout and either find it or get obliterated himself shortly thereafter. However, when “Pezao” decided to move up to heavyweight in 2018, that approach came with an unexpected newfound wrinkle. If Rogerio de Lima could not find that knockout, he would suddenly fight behind a wrestling game that proved surprisingly effective, allowing the Brazilian to grind out some ugly wins. The margins still feel a bit narrow at times, as Rogerio de Lima still tires past the first round and can be stifled by some of the stronger wrestlers at heavyweight, but it is enough of a change-up that one of the two options usually works, allowing him to put together enough wins to earn this shot at Lewis. This is going to start as a coinflip of a brawl, but past that, Rogerio de Lima should be able to lean on his takedowns. He may only have two paths to victory, but that is one more than most heavyweights and enough to give him the nod here. The pick is Rogerio de Lima via first-round knockout.
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