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Women’s Strawweight

Cynthia Calvillo (6-0) vs. Carla Esparza (12-4)

ODDS: Calvillo (-255), Esparza (+215)

ANALYSIS: Since winning “The Ultimate Fighter 20,” choking out Rose Namajunas and becoming the inaugural UFC women’s strawweight champion three years ago, Esparza is just 2-2; more importantly, her lopsided title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and her upset split decision loss to Randa Markos have cast her as just another quality fighter in the best women’s division. Casual wisdom is that Esparza, just 30, has plateaued. One blazing-fast way to change that perception would be to knock off the undefeated Calvillo, who has quickly become a preferred prospect by the UFC brass -- and rightly so. While there is a natural fan tendency to bristle against any fighter a promotion seemingly handpicks and develops, Calvillo is very much worth the hype, but the “Cookie Monster” is by far the most difficult style matchup -- and best fighter period -- that she has faced in her amateur or pro career.

Esparza is a strong, quick athlete who excels when she pins her opponents to the fence or catches them advancing, as she changes levels and lets the chain wrestling begin. Despite spending years under the tutelage of Colin Oyama, Esparza still just displays basic, rudimentary kickboxing skills, only seemingly opening up when she has already gained a material wrestling advantage; her standup seems emboldened by wrestling success.

Calvillo’s striking is far from a finished product, but she has the finer jab of the two women and if nothing else manages to be more active, landing 3.65 significant strikes per minute to Esparza’s 2.2. Like her opponent, though, her standup technique and efficacy seems to drastically improve when she has already achieved some level of grappling dominance. Calvillo is the naturally busier, more diverse striker of the pair.

So both women have average-at-best striking which improves when they find grappling success. Who will enjoy said success? Again, both women hold the distinction of having taken down every opponent they have faced in the Octagon. However, despite being perhaps physically stronger and the more classic wrestler, Esparza is not a master of control, while Calvillo’s scrambling ability is the straw that stirs the drink for her entire game. The 30-yer-old’s last outing, a decision win against Joanne Calderwood, was largely based on two late-round flashes where she took the back in a heartbeat. It is also how she choked out Amanda Bobby Cooper and Pearl Gonzalez; and like a true Team Alpha Male product, Calvillo is brilliant at threatening chokes from the front headlock, if not to finish then just to allow her to cradle or turn the corner before gaining back control.

Neither woman is going to sock up the other on the feet badly, but if anyone is doing work, it figures to be Calvillo with her jab and herky-jerky kicking. Esparza will find it easier than Calvillo to get clean takedowns, but this may just aid Calvillo if Esparza is stood up and forced to constantly reshoot or simply cannot hold down her opponent, allowing the sweep-and-scramble opportunities in which Calvillo thrives. Esparza’s rugged, determined wrestling and top-position instincts will keep this close, but she will not land as much standing, and she is not nearly as likely to take any dominant, threatening positions on the floor. As a result, Calvillo moves to 5-0 on the year via the scorecards.

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