Preview: UFC Fight Night 171 ‘Smith vs. Teixeira’

Lightweights

Drew Dober (22-9) vs. Alexander Hernandez (11-2)

ODDS: Dober (-135), Hernandez (+115)

Hernandez was one of the more pleasant surprises of 2018. He stepped in on short notice to obliterate Beneil Dariush in just 42 seconds and followed it with a dominant win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier that established him as one of the top prospects to watch in a deep division. However, things have gone sideways over the last year and a half. On the first card of 2019, Hernandez got a huge chance against Donald Cerrone and mostly got handled; it was a game effort, but Cerrone consistently took advantage of Hernandez’s unchecked aggression on route to a stoppage late in the second round. Hernandez said all the right things about using the loss as a learning experience, but his last bout against Francisco Trinaldo raised some red flags. It was a win, but Hernandez drastically overcompensated for the Cerrone loss, staying at long distance and turning things into a slog as he attempted to pick apart Trinaldo. Was this just who Hernandez is now, was this just a one-off strategy shift or was it somewhere in between as he tries to change his approach into something more measured? This fight should provide some answers since Dober has suddenly become a dangerous opponent.

It has been a slow rise through the ranks for Dober. During his first few fights inside the UFC, it was unclear what his strengths were even supposed to be, but things finally started to click in his 2016 bout against Scott Holtzman. Dober showed an effective volume striking game, and from there, he was a successful action fighter but particularly relevant. However, he has looked excellent since his loss to Dariush in March 2019. The Dariush fight showed that Dober has at least become a game defensive grappler, but the huge improvement has come in his last two bouts. Dober has learned to channel his power into knockouts of Marco Polo Reyes and hyped prospect Nasrat Haqparast. That suddenly puts him on the fringes of the lightweight Top 15, and he could enter the rankings with a win here—something that was unthinkable just a few years ago.

A lot of this depends on Hernandez’s approach. It is a much more winnable fight for “Alexander the Great” if he goes back to his old, more aggressive style. Dober should remain dangerous throughout, but even with the Elevation Fight Team rep’s recent improvements, Hernandez should be able to overwhelm him and control the bout with a constant commitment to clinching and wrestling. However, after his last performance against Trinaldo, Hernandez finding his old form falls firmly in see-it-when-I-believe-it territory. Hernandez’s speed and elusiveness may still be enough to frustrate his counterpart and win another unwatchable decision, but Dober should be able to keep pressing in an effort to make something happen and, in turn, win rounds. The pick is Dober via decision.

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