Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dillashaw vs. Cruz’

Heavyweights

Travis Browne (17-3-1) vs Matt Mitrione (9-4)

THE MATCHUP: Mitrione has picked up a reputation, perhaps unfairly, as a fighter who makes bad decisions in fights. Though Mitrione suffered the consequences of an ill-timed takedown in his bout with Ben Rothwell, it must be admitted that consequences are always more severe in heavyweight fights; and there are certainly more forgiving mountains to have on top of you than Rothwell. Against Brendan Schaub, Mitrione seemed to be finding his rhythm and range on the feet when a takedown from Schaub put him on his back. From there, Schaub’s jiu-jitsu gave him the edge. Against Roy Nelson, Mitrione was knocked out -- which can happen when one faces “Big Country.”

The fact of the matter is that Mitrione is an exceptionally talented heavyweight with very little experience under his belt. Just now passing the seven-year anniversary of his professional debut, Mitrione should only just be entering his prime as far as skill is concerned. Thanks to Dutch muay Thai maestro Henri Hooft, that seems to be happening. Mitrione moves well from side to side, sliding in and out of range to confuse his opponent. He feints well and has a natural sense of rhythm, which allows him to disguise combinations that consist of short, fast, economical punches from his southpaw stance.

Both Browne and Mitrione have been labeled extremely athletic for men their size, but in this contest there is no question who attacks and evades with more speed, grace and natural timing. Mitrione may make questionable decisions in his fights, but I expect him to look about twice as fast as Browne, who, despite impressive agility for a giant, still moves more or less like a giant. Browne seems to have dropped the oddly cobbled-together striking attack he picked up at Jackson-Wink MMA, but it remains unclear what he plans to replace it with under new coach Edmond Tarverdyan.

Browne seems to have focused on his boxing, but his awkward attempts at upper body movement and combination punching left him on Queer Street against the last fast, athletic puncher he faced. That was Andrei Arlovski, and you may recall that Arlovski knocked him out. Browne’s other three marquee wins, over Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett are difficult to count on going forward. Overeem nearly finished Browne before exhaustedly walking into “Hapa’s” front kicks, which, remember, he no longer throws. Barnett and Gonzaga dove into head-outside takedowns and had their heads caved in by Browne’s elbows.

THE ODDS: Browne (-155), Mitrione (+135)

THE PICK: Browne is a very dangerous fighter. He hits hard and takes a good shot. As a fairly slow fighter, though, his problem is one of range. Faster and more diverse strikers tend to penetrate his long kicks fairly well, and he has yet to show the kind of jab necessary to validate his new, boxing-centric approach. Of all the fighters Browne has faced, few are more capable of collapsing the pocket than Mitrione, who is both faster and more technical than the Hawaiian. Browne’s durability and power make this something of a toss-up -- this is heavyweight MMA, after all -- but in a predictable universe, I see “Meathead” pot-shotting Browne until he tires, leaving him ripe for a knockout. The pick is Mitrione by second-round TKO.

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