Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Edgar vs. Swanson’

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FLYWEIGHTS

Brad Pickett (24-9, 4-4 UFC) vs. Chico Camus (14-5, 3-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Veteran flyweight Pickett, a longtime staple at American Top Team, attempts to right the ship against Camus. Both fighters are coming off losses, Pickett to Ian McCall in July and Camus to Chris Holdsworth in May, and this may be Camus’ last chance to stick around; Pickett has a longer leash, but a loss here would effectively relegate him to gatekeeper status at 125 pounds.

Despite his “One Punch” moniker, the core of Pickett’s game revolves around his wrestling prowess and solid top game. He shoots a lovely double that he finishes with authority and chains it together nicely with singles and the occasional trip from the clinch. He can throw heavy shots from top position, maintains control nicely and owns a solid arsenal of passes and submissions. On the feet, things are chancier. Pickett has some pop in his hands and throws a crisp jab, but his defense is lacking and he has a tendency to get tagged in exchanges as his opponents outwork him with combinations and exploit his habit of spamming his right hand.

Camus, like Pickett, does his best work on the mat. Much like Dustin Ortiz, who fights Joseph Benavidez a couple of fights down the card, Camus is less a specialized wrestler or grappler than a fighter whose game revolves around winning the scrambles and transitions. He can work solid control from top position and throws decent ground strikes, but he lacks much in the way of finishing ability and his striking is low-output and rough around the edges.

BETTING ODDS: Pickett (-250), Green (+210)

THE PICK: Unless Pickett has reached the end of his prime, this is his fight to lose. He is bigger, stronger, a much better striker and a better pure wrestler than Camus, who lacks the combination striking and athleticism that have been Pickett’s bane over his last few losses. I think Pickett will control Camus on the ground and outwork him on the feet for a clear unanimous decision.

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