UFC Fight Night 29 Preview

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Light Heavyweights

Matt Hamill (11-4, 10-4 UFC) vs. Thiago Silva (15-3, 6-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Silva did his best to erase the memory of two failed drug tests and a lopsided loss to Alexander Gustafsson in his most recently outing, as he knocked out Brazilian rival Rafael Cavalcante in the opening frame of their UFC on Fuel TV 10 encounter. In many ways, it was a vintage performance from Silva, who weathered an early onslaught from “Feijao” before pinning his opponent to the cage with punches, a powerful uppercut signaling the end of the night for the former Strikeforce king.

Silva’s aggressive style could work well against Hamill, who lacks the length and the footwork to keep his opponent at bay. The other question surrounding “The Hammer” -- who emerged from a year-long retirement to capture an uninspiring win over Roger Hollett at UFC 152 -- is just how much he has left in the tank. Hamill was out of gas by round two against Hollett, but his stout wrestling base kept him afloat against a foe who offered little in the way of significant offense. Such a lapse could prove disastrous against Silva. With 14 of his 15 career triumphs coming by way of knockout or submission, the Blackzilians representative has a keen finishing instinct.

Silva’s tendency to engage in brawls means that he is far from unhittable, but a solid recovery rate makes him difficult to finish. Realistically, Hamill needs to control Silva through takedowns and ground-and-pound. The former Div. III national champion wrestler sometimes bypasses his bread-and-butter in order to stand and bang, a recipe for disaster against a more explosive, athletic opponent. Silva has above-average takedown defense, however, and can land whipping leg kicks to slow Hamill’s advances. If Hamill’s gas tank empties early, it is possible that Silva could mix in a surprise takedown or two of his own. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black-belt, Silva can pass guard and land heavy strikes from above when given the opportunity.

The Pick: It has been more than a year since Hamill last fought. He will have to be far more assertive and better conditioned if he is to continue his comeback against Silva. A more likely scenario sees the American wilting under the pressure of a Silva barrage and losing via KO or TKO in round two or three.

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