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Lightweights

Donald Cerrone (21-6, 8-3 UFC) vs. Adriano Martins (25-6, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: From fight to fight, Cerrone’s biggest obstacle seems to be the man in the mirror. When he is properly motivated and his mind is right, you get a performance like the one “Cowboy” put forth at UFC 167, where he submitted Evan Dunham with a triangle choke in the second round. Cerrone was on his game from the outset, punishing Dunham with knees and punches in the opening frame before using his ground game to get the tapout in round two.

Contrast that with his effort against Rafael dos Anjos at UFC Fight Night 27, where he started slowly and was floored by an overhand right early in the bout. Despite a third-round surge, the Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts product was unable to overcome the early deficit and lost a decision. Now, this is not an attempt to discredit the opponents who have gotten the better of the WEC veteran -- Anthony Pettis’ liver kick at UFC on Fox 6, for example, was perfectly placed -- but there does seem to be two different versions of Cerrone on fight night. Which one shows up this time around will go a long way toward determining the outcome.

Martins has some decent power, as the southpaw tagged Daron Cruickshank repeatedly with left hands en route to a second-round submission victory at UFC Fight Night 32. In past bouts, the Top Life Amazonas product has pressed the action with power punches while mixing in the occasional leg kick. Even against Cruickshank, a flashy kickboxer, Martins kept his hands alarmingly low. While “The Ultimate Fighter 15” veteran was not able to capitalize, Cerrone, with his ability to change levels with strikes, might be able to catch Martins with a head kick at some point.

Martins lacks the volume and versatility of Cerrone on the feet, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has a powerful build and will not be at a significant height or reach disadvantage in this fight. Expect Martins to try to use his strikes to set up takedowns. On the mat, he is very composed and patient, whether he is landing ground-and-pound or working to advance position for submission attempts. Cerrone, of course, is quite active from his back and has also greatly improved his wrestling over the years to the point that scoring takedowns against him is no longer a foregone conclusion.

However, if Martins can land some offense on the feet early, as dos Anjos did, it will set up his takedowns nicely. Pressing forward also has its risks, namely the knees that Cerrone used so well against Dunham.

The Pick: Martins does not have the name value of some of Cerrone’s most recent opponents, but he is big enough and skilled enough to make things interesting. The flaws in his standup will eventually be exposed, however, as Cerrone wins via KO or TKO in round two or three.

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