Preview: UFC 185 ‘Pettis vs. dos Anjos’

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HEAVYWEIGHTS

Roy Nelson (20-10, 7-6 UFC) vs. Alistair Overeem (38-14, 3-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: “The Ultimate Fighter 10” winner Nelson takes on Dutch K-1 champion Overeem in a matchup of hard-hitting heavyweights. Nelson is on a rough run, going 1-3 in his last four with a brutal knockout loss to Mark Hunt in his most recent outing. Overeem’s entire UFC career has been up and down, and he rebounded from a bad knockout at the hands of Ben Rothwell by pounding Stefan Struve into oblivion in December. Essentially, the winner remains a relevant heavyweight and the loser is either inching toward the end of his career or potentially even on the chopping block.

Overeem is the quintessential glass cannon at this point in his lengthy career, a skilled and devastatingly powerful offensive fighter with almost no ability to take a punch. Despite his kickboxing credentials, Overeem is not exceptionally slick at range. Defensive skill is not the Dutchman’s strong point: He rarely moves his head and relies almost entirely on angles and range to avoid strikes. He tends to keep the distance with front and side kicks to his opponent’s thigh and then loads up on overhand rights and stepping knees as he moves forward into his real wheelhouse -- the clinch. Overeem is one of the best inside fighters in the history of the sport, with a fantastic arsenal of knees, strong control and slick trips and throws. From top position, he is a monster and drops potent ground strikes mixed in with nice passes and an immovable base.

“Big Country” is a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he has made very little use of those skills in recent years, preferring to rely on his powerful right hand. Surprisingly light on his feet for such a large and rotund man, Nelson has improved his setups for that overhand right in his last several outings, adding a potent left hook and range-finding jab to his repertoire, along with an improved command of angles. He is a defensive mess with almost no ability to avoid his opponent’s strikes, but he only needs one right hand to end proceedings in emphatic fashion. Wrestling is not Nelson’s strong suit -- he has successfully completed one takedown in the last three years -- and defensively, he relies on his low center of gravity to shuck off attempts. From the top, he passes smoothly and tends to look for the crucifix, dropping hard shots all the while.

BETTING ODDS: Overeem (-210), Nelson (+175)

THE PICK: This is a hard fight to pick: Do you take Overeem’s better skills at range, in the clinch and as a wrestler or Nelson’s punch against a guy who cannot take a flush shot? Either way, this should probably be a pick ’em fight rather than one with Overeem as the favorite; however, the Dutchman should still win. Nelson is limited and declining in his own right, and I think Overeem can mostly stay away at range, work some takedowns and top control and take rounds. The pick is Overeem by decision.

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