Preview: UFC 213 ‘Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2’

Lightweights

Anthony Pettis (19-6) vs. Jim Miller (28-9)

THE MATCHUP: After a lackluster 1-1 run at featherweight, former lightweight champion Pettis is finally going back where he belongs. In some sense, it is fortunate that weight was never Pettis’ biggest problem at lightweight, which means that he could pick up right where he left off, with renewed stamina and vigor. On the other hand, it was a three-fight losing streak that forced Pettis to featherweight in the first place, and there is little to suggest that he has resolved the deeper, technical issues in his game.

You could say that Pettis is a victim of his own talent. A plus athlete with remarkable dexterity and speed, Pettis spent the bulk of his career fighting without certain techniques that boxers would consider fundamental. Though Rafael dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza all used very different methods to beat him, they all took advantage of some persistent flaws. “Showtime” struggled to get his back off the fence against dos Anjos because he never learned to pivot or manage distance with feints, jabs and small steps; Alvarez repeatedly stalled him out in the clinch for much the same reason; and it was that same underdeveloped footwork and boxing that allowed Barboza to confidently outstrike Pettis in his last lightweight bout. Pettis showed a few new wrinkles in his fight with Max Holloway -- working a jab and investing in leg kicks -- but in the end, it became clear that he still has not sorted out his fundamental flaws. At this point, it seems doubtful that he ever will.

None of this means that Pettis is destined to lose to every fighter put in front of him, of course. Though it was a back-and-forth scrap, Pettis leaned on his powerful kicks and granite chin to outlast Charles Oliveira in August, and his potent submission game won the day. That he struggled to avoid the brunt of Oliveira’s aggressive muay Thai is some cause for concern, however, and that is a hole that Miller is more than capable of exploiting.

That Miller has never enjoyed Pettis’ natural abilities is almost a blessing at this point. Miller has experienced a few ups and downs of his own of late, but between fights, he was always making quiet improvements and rounding out his game. A depressing 1-4 streak a couple years ago seemed to suggest that Miller’s time at the top was running short, but a diagnosis of Lyme disease, combined with the necessary treatment, has returned him to peak form. In fact, Miller’s last four fights were some of the most impressive of his entire career, with more urgent standup, a higher volume of body shots and rock-solid defense. In short, Pettis’ style seems to be rusting before its time, and Miller’s straightforward game has only gotten sharper. He is a onetime Division I wrestler with a killer submission game and no shortage of rugged grace on the feet. To paraphrase the man himself, he likes to kick people almost as much as he likes to choke them. Miller is a complete fighter.

THE ODDS: Pettis (-255), Miller (+215)

THE PICK: Pettis has the potential to do amazing things, but that potential tends to go untapped when he faces an opponent who can strategically and assertively control the fight. On the other hand, everything about Miller, from his Creedence Clearwater Revival walkout to his unwavering self-confidence, is absolutely reliable. Pettis’ star has faded for a number of reasons, whereas Miller, now freed more or less from the pains of his disease, continues to improve with age. Maybe this fight is fine Cabernet versus red table wine, but I think the Cabernet has corked, while the simple blend is just starting taking on new dimensions. The pick is Miller by unanimous decision.

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