Preview: UFC 214 ‘Cormier vs. Jones 2’

Welterweights

Robbie Lawler (27-11) vs. Donald Cerrone (32-8)

THE MATCHUP: If you are not a Lawler fan, it is simply because you have not seen him fight. For those of you who have, however, and who were surely crushed by his quick and violent loss to Tyron Woodley last year, I have some words which should bring a smile to your faces: Lawler is training with Henri Hooft. The former Blackzilians trainer, now working alongside business partner and student Gilbert Burns at the Combat Club in Lantana, Florida, has a certain reputation in the MMA community. He is known for the direct and often disheartening tone of his corner work. For students who struggle to maintain composure in the cage, like Anthony Johnson and Michael Johnson, this is a potentially fight-changing flaw of Hooft’s manly, Dutch style of coaching. For a man like Lawler, who has been around the block dozens of times and been through more than a few will-testing wars, it will hopefully be less of a problem. As far as technical instruction goes, Hooft is easily one of the best striking coaches in the sport.

Hooft may be just the shot in the arm Lawler needs to get his career back on track. A year has elapsed since Woodley took the belt, and one hopes that Lawler has spent the interim refocusing on his kickboxing skills. These were razor-sharp when Lawler made his triumphant UFC return in 2013, and they remained stellar up to the time of his excellent win over Matt Brown. Since the end of 2014, however, Lawler has struggled to keep a consistent pace on his opponents. His marvelous jab appears less frequently than it used to and the intelligent pressure with which Lawler earned his biggest UFC wins has devolved into an aimless crawl interspersed with wild flurries of violence. Hooft likes fighters who pressure, and Lawler is best when his opponent is reacting to him.

This is something with which Cerrone struggles, but he has inured himself to his usual enemies in recent years. With the help of Brandon Gibson, Cerrone has improved his combination punching and his defense with the addition of a few predictive slips and rolls. His footwork, too, is tighter and more efficient than it used to be. All of these skills make him harder to counter and therefore more dangerous in the pocket, where he has historically been quite vulnerable. The goal of winning these exchanges, however, is only to get opponents out of the pocket. Cerrone’s improved boxing is a sophisticated band-aid, but the underlying wounds -- poor reactive defense, weakness to body shots -- are still there. So the ideal range for “Cowboy” is a little longer, where his clever and destructive kicking game makes him a real threat for Lawler, who has struggled with skilled, busy kickers throughout his career.

This battle for direction and control could be altered by a takedown, but Lawler’s wrestling has been stellar since his move to American Top Team and Cerrone’s has been very reliable in recent years. It seems unlikely that either man will manage to take down the other more than once. If both do consent to grapple, however, Cerrone is the more dangerous submission fighter. In fact, Lawler has only taken one submission win in his entire career. Nonetheless, he is an able scrambler with an excellent butterfly guard.

THE ODDS: Lawler (-160), Cerrone (+130)

THE PICK: This fight is dangerous for both men. Lawler has been staggered by strikes in his last three fights and knocked out in the most recent. Cerrone was knocked out himself, however, and more recently, too. Lawler lost the title a year ago, but Cerrone fell to the quick hands of Jorge Masvidal six months ago; and while that would normally be enough time to recover, it is important to remember that Cerrone could not make the original date for this fight due to a staph infection and a pulled groin. That was only a month ago, and that is likely not enough time to recover. Both men are likely nearing the ends of their careers, but Lawler was a champion just a year ago. Cerrone has never reached that height, and Lawler has taken the right steps in the last year, giving himself the best chance possible to make a move back to the title and perhaps in the very near future. The pick is Lawler by second-round TKO.

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