Preview: UFC Fight Night 231 Prelims

Strawweights

Angela Hill (15-13) vs. Denise Gomes (8-2)

ODDS: Gomes (-125), Hill (+105)

Gomes gets a big chance here to complete what would be a breakout 2023. Still just 23 years old, Gomes looked like a raw but promising fighter in earning a contract on the Contender Series last year, but a debut loss to Loma Lookboonmee cooled a bit of the short-term hype around the Brazilian; clearly physically gifted, Gomes needed to find some more aggression and striking volume to supplement a game build around physicality and pressure. That may have taken all of a few months - Gomes kicked off the year with a one-sided win and second-round knockout of Bruna Brasil, then blasted top prospect Yazmin Jauregui in just 20 seconds for a huge upset to put her back on the map. The UFC has decided against patience when it comes to Gomes's subsequent matchmaking, pitting her against divisional stalwart Hill in by far her toughest test to date. Thrown to the wolves as a raw kickboxer during her first stint with the UFC back in 2014, Hill made her return to the Octagon in 2017 and immediately proved herself capable of giving any opponent a tough fight. There have been ups and downs as Hill's had to round out her wrestling game and solve some cardio issues, but she's become a consistent fighter through sheer experience - and Hill has racked up a lot of experience with one of the busiest schedules in the sport, even squeezing six fights into an eleven-month stretch at one point. Hill's back half of 2022 saw her turn back Lupita Godinez and Emily Ducote for some impressive victories, but a headlining loss to Mackenzie Dern in May was another reminder that "Overkill" has a clear ceiling; she did amazingly well to survive for five rounds against a career-best form of Dern, but the fight showed off an athleticism gap that Hill is unlikely to ever overcome. The hope is that Gomes can replicate something approximating that performance, but unless Hill suddenly falls off thanks to her age or a hard career, this does look like too much too soon for the prospect; Brasil looked unready for Gomes's firepower and Jauregui can be over-aggressive, while Hill can fight a much more effective fight between those two extremes. With Hill's effectiveness in the clinch, that should also take away the grinding phase of Gomes's game, and at that point Gomes doesn't look to have a clear path to ride to victory. Gomes is improving quickly, so a win isn't entirely out of the question, but the pick is Hill via clear decision.

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