UFC on Fox 5 Preview

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Welterweights

Mike Swick (15-4, 10-3 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (15-11, 8-5 UFC)

The Matchup: Swick’s comeback was the feel-good story of UFC on Fox 4. Sidelined by a various ailments for more than two years, the American Kickboxing Academy product made a triumphant return to the Octagon with a second-round technical knockout over DaMarques Johnson. The bout was not without a few tense moments for Swick, who showed a little ring rust as Johnson mounted him and threatened with submissions in round one. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 cast member rallied in the second round, however, landing a devastating standing-to-ground punch that rendered his opponent unconscious.

Brown entered 2012 having lost four of his last five bouts, and “The Ultimate Fighter 7” veteran has responded with the appropriate urgency, notching triumphs over Chris Cope, Steven Thompson and Luis Ramos so far this year. Despite his lengthy layoff, Swick represents a significant upgrade in competition over Brown’s previous three opponents; neither Cope nor Ramos are high-caliber UFC talents, and Thompson’s woeful ground game needs serious work.

Brown has been involved in some memorable battles over the course of his Octagon career, and the AMC Pankration representative is not one to turn down a brawl. Whether it is landing power punches, knees in close quarters or heavy ground-and-pound, “Immortal” attacks with a purpose. If Swick starts as slowly as he did against Johnson, expect Brown to capitalize.

Brown’s style has its drawbacks, however. To generate power, he often has to wind up on his punches. If Brown gets too wild, Swick can make him pay with a solid right cross or left hook. While Brown is effective landing offense from above, he often struggles to hold top position and is susceptible to submissions, as evidenced by his nine losses via tapout.

Swick is likely the more tactical of the two welterweights. If Brown is getting the better of exchanges on the feet, Swick is smart enough to switch gears and take advantage of his foe’s so-so takedown defense.

The Pick: Both Brown and Swick will have their moments in exchanges, but the latter will demonstrate his versatility as the fight wears on by scoring takedowns from the clinch. In an all-action affair, Swick prevails by submission in round two.

Last Fights » The Prelims