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Bantamweights

John Dodson (20-10) vs. Petr Yan (11-1)

ODDS: Yan (-255), Dodson (+195)

The last few years have seen bantamweight become one of the UFC's deepest and most diverse divisions, and Yan only adds to that embarrassment of riches. Yan made his pro debut in late 2014 and quickly became one of the best prospects in the sport. As a bonus, the Russian was not some sort of plodding grinder. Instead, Yan follows in the form of fellow Omsk native Alexander Shlemenko, favoring a vast array of flashy, brutal strikes. It was only a matter of time before Yan made his way to a major promotion, and he finally got the UFC call in 2018. Yan has wasted little time in making an impact during his eight months on the roster. This already marks his fourth UFC fight, and even though his last win over Douglas Silva de Andrade represented his first real test, Yan has spent those bouts showing an impressive ability to adapt his brand of violence to whatever his opponent brings. There are still some concerns about how Yan hangs with the true elite of the division -- he is not quite a top-shelf athlete and has struggled at times with powerful wrestlers -- but he has a good few years ahead of him as a relevant fighter in the division. After the Silva de Andrade win, Yan’s first huge test figured to be on the horizon, and it comes less than two months later, as “No Mercy” faces a veteran stalwart in Dodson.

Dodson has consistently been one of the most frustrating fighters to watch in the UFC, but for most of his career, it has been hard to argue with his success. The 5-foot-3 Dodson could, at one point, dunk a basketball, and when the Albuquerque, New Mexico, native decides to uncork that explosive athleticism, it is a beautiful thing to watch, as he can obliterate opponents in a way that few of his lighter-weight peers can match. However, Dodson’s fights often fell into a boring pattern. His opponents were scared off by his massive power, and Dodson would see no need to press the action, so he would be content to win a low-output striking match via decision. Still, Demetrious Johnson was the only UFC fighter to beat Dodson at 125 pounds, though the former champion did so in such decisive fashion that “The Magician” eventually decided to move up to bantamweight. The results have been mixed so far. Dodson has finally become a bit more strategic in his stick-and-move game, adding a higher output, but that may be out of necessity. While Dodson remains one of the quicker fighters on the roster, he is now 34 years old and has slowed down to the point where he does not quite have the nuclear athleticism necessary for his one-shot kills. As Dodson has slowed down a bit, he has become easier to catch, so nowadays his fights have turned into close decisions where he gets as much as he gives. Still, his frustrating style is a solid benchmark to see who is ready to break into or stay at a contender level, so he represents a good test for Yan.

There are fighters who, by the nature of their style, bend every fight into centering around them, and Dodson is one of those fighters. His style of darting at range basically brings every fight down to his opponent’s ability to win exchanges, which, due his declining power and athleticism, is happening more and more often. There is some intrigue, as Yan is not necessarily the quickest fighter of hand or of foot, but he has shown an ability to get a read on his opponents and adjust as needed, which will serve him well here. If this was the Dodson of a few years ago, that speed might be a level beyond what Yan can handle, but this is basically a bet on Yan figuring out the IQ test and winning individual moments, even if this does not figure to be a performance where he looks impressive. The pick is Yan via decision.

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