Preview: UFC Fight Night 178 Main Card

Women’s Strawweights

Mackenzie Dern (8-1) vs. Randa Markos (10-8-1)

ODDS: Dern (-165), Markos (+145)

It is time once again to see if Dern can get over the hump. She essentially started grappling out of the womb given her bloodlines, and after an elite-level career in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, she decided to transition to mixed martial arts. It has been a mixed bag thus far, even on the regional scene. While Dern is obviously among the most venomous submission specialists in her division, she has had struggles getting to that part of her game and making the strawweight limit on the scale. Her UFC debut against Ashley Yoder was a bit flat as a grind of a decision, but Dern recaptured most of her hype by running over Amanda Bobby Brundage before taking some time off due to pregnancy. Upon her return, Dern faced the relatively unknown Amanda Ribas, who managed to blow open all the flaws in her game. She held her own on the mat while taking advantage of Dern’s wild approach on the feet, and while that loss has aged well with Ribas’ subsequent success, Dern’s last win over Hannah Cifers even raised some red flags. While Dern managed to secure a kneebar for the win, she still had difficulty getting an undersized but strong opponent to the ground. Dern could probably use a little more seasoning before getting pushed back up the ladder, but that has rarely been the UFC’s way, so she gets a tough veteran test against Markos.

Save for a 2018 draw against Marina Rodriguez, Markos has managed to alternate wins and losses over her 14-fight UFC career, which is about right for one of the promotion’s most inconsistent fighters. Markos came out of nowhere to have a star turn on the all-strawweight edition of “The Ultimate Fighter,” serving as the closest thing to the season’s protagonist while making a run all the way to the semifinals. However, “Quiet Storm” has never quite capitalized on that momentum. While she has improved as a fighter, it seems to be a crapshoot as far as what particular skills will be working for her in each particular fight. That also holds true for her approach. Her first two fights of 2019 were emblematic of the rollercoaster on which Markos finds herself. She absolutely ran through Angela Hill for a quick submission but never pressed the action in her subsequent fight against Claudia Gadelha. She was even essentially two different fighters in that aforementioned Rodriguez fight, getting out to a hot start by pressing her wrestling, then never pursuing that beyond the first round. Markos is perfectly capable of serving as a stiff test for Dern as long as she shows up.

This does look to be Markos fight to lose. While Dern may have a power advantage—even that is not a given—it has not shown up much in the cage outside of her knockout of Brundage. Even if this is a night where nothing clicks for Markos, she should still be able to keep the fight standing, where the Canadian is a much better fighter. Plus, the grappling should not be a huge concern. While Markos’ 2016 submission loss to Cortney Casey stands out as a red flag, Dern’s reputation alone should keep Markos from similarly diving right into danger. If anything, the concern is that Markos shows up flat rather than overaggressive, and even then, it is not clear that Dern has the skills to take advantage. Dern is still a blue-chip prospect, but unless she has improved a great deal in the last four months, the pick is for Markos to neutralize her effectively and take a decision win.

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