Preview: UFC on Fox 28 ‘Emmett vs. Stephens’
Midcard Prelims
Bantamweight
Renan Barao (34-5) vs. Brian Kelleher (18-8)Advertisement
ANALYSIS: Even if this is not the most tightly matched bout on the bill, it is certainly the biggest wild card; and that is entirely due to Barao’s recent history. If this was four or five years ago and we were talking about Barao, the UFC bantamweight champion on a gaudy 33-fight unbeaten streak, it would be an open and shut case -- and a wipeout at that. However, though he is just 30 years old, the toll of a 13-year, 40-fight career has been obvious on the Brazilian, who was forced up to 145 pounds temporarily after struggling mightily to make the bantamweight limit. Now, he will attempt to return to 135 pounds, with absolutely no guarantee that he makes the weight limit or does it in a fashion that allows him to fight fit and healthy. Kelleher, 31, has gone to the scorecards just six times in 26 pro bouts. An aggressive and creative fighter, Kelleher mixes his punches together well but does most of his damage with varied right-handed hooks. He is also adept at finishing by submission -- especially with his preferred guillotine choke -- once he hurts an opponent. However, he often seems to fly by the seat of his pants. If what he is attempting is not working, he becomes inactive and gets hit or concedes position, as evidenced in his last bout, where he traded rounds and techniques with the underwhelming Damian Stasiak for 13 minutes before finishing him off. If Barao makes it to this bout in fighting trim, he will jab and low kick until he draws out the aggressive Kelleher and stuns him. If Barao stuns Kelleher, he is liable to jump on his back and choke him out. It is a dicey proposition, but in what may be Barao’s last chance to prove he can still hang at an elite level, I will take the Nova Uniao Kimura and American Top Team rep to take a competitive decision over 15 minutes.
Women’s Bantamweight
Sara McMann (11-4) vs. Marion Reneau (8-3-1)ODDS: McMann (-220), Reneau (+180)
ANALYSIS: At 37 years old and given how badly she was wiped out by champ Amanda Nunes in their August 2015 encounter, it seems unlikely McMann is ever going to get a second crack at the UFC women’s bantamweight crown. Nonetheless, she remains a physically imposing, Olympic silver medal-winning wrestler with a potent top game. However, while her move to Team Alpha Male seems to suit her game well, McMann’s September loss to undefeated prospect Ketlen Vieira suggests her Achilles’ heel remains the same: When she cannot overwhelm from top position, she is liable to screw up and lose. She muscled Vieira for the first round, then grew overaggressive in Round 2, got tossed on her back an arm-triangle choked, snapping her three-fight winning streak. Reneau is an interesting style look for her. The 40-year-old Reneau, the oldest fighter on the card, works an aggressive open guard from her back and is a serious sweep-and-submit threat. However, she has been taken down at least once in her last five bouts, including three times by the underwhelming Talita Bernardo in her last appearance. Her style is complicated by the fact that she is at her best on the feet when she uses her jab to set up heavy kicking offense but remains highly susceptible to having her kicks caught and getting dumped on the floor. This fight’s outcome will entirely depend on whether Reneau can either submit McMann from her back or sweep to top position and panic the Olympian. However, the difference in wrestling and physicality seems formative here, and if anything, Reneau’s constant attacking off of her back may simply give McMann the ability to defend and then pass guard. There is an outside chance that the brawny McMann uses her heavy head-and-neck pressure to lock up an arm-triangle choke, but the more likely outcome is McMann by unanimous decision after dominating from top control for three rounds.
Women’s Strawweight
Angela Hill (7-4) vs. Maryna Moroz (8-2)ODDS: Hill (-130), Moroz (+110)
ANALYSIS: While both Moroz and Hill are capable strikers, the complexion of this bout and how much action we get remains uncertain. Moroz, who recently relocated to Chicago and now works out of Valle Flow Striking, has strong in-out movement, a nifty left hook and right uppercut, plus a slick ground game, as she displayed in her UFC debut, upsetting Joanne Calderwood with a 90-second armbar. However, there is zero connectivity between her strengths; nothing she does well sets up anything else she does well. This is how you end up with the 26-year-old throwing a ton of aimless, inaccurate strikes and landing at just a 24.2 percent clip. In her August 2016 win over Danielle Taylor, Ukraine’s “Iron Lady” landed 17 of 251 significant strikes, or 6.7 percent -- the lowest ever in a UFC bout where someone threw 100 significant strikes. Hill, 33, is still a work in progress. When she competed on “The Ultimate Fighter 20,” she had just one pro fight under her belt, so it was no surprise that she lost easily to Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas following the show and got bounced. Her subsequent four-fight winning streak allowed her to become a more effective sprawl-and-brawler and earned her the Invicta Fighting Championships strawweight title, defeating the recently signed and outstanding Livia Renata Souza and eventually punching her ticket back to the Octagon. However, her upset loss to Nina Ansaroff in November was a reminder that “Angie Overkill” still has a ways to go, as “Nina the Strina” constantly circled and avoided Hill’s in-out punching and kicking combinations over the final 10 minutes. Moroz is not big on circular or lateral movement, nor does she excel off the counter, so if Hill turns up the pressure with her normal, clean combos, it should carry the Alliance MMA fighter to a unanimous decision.
Welterweight
Alan Jouban (15-6) vs. Ben Saunders (21-8-2)ODDS: Jouban (-240), Saunders (+200)
ANALYSIS: This fight was obviously designed to be an all-action slugfest, and rest assured, it is going to have a lot of offense. The question, though, is how lopsided that action is and how long the bout actually lasts. In his prime, Saunders was no top-10 fighter by any means, but despite his lack of takedown defense, his combination of lanky power punching, massive clinch knees and aggressive guard play made him a thrill to watch. However, Saunders is 34 years old, has already flirted with retirement and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. “Killa B” is now more likely than ever to be the one getting stung. That bodes poorly against the hyper-aggressive, well-rounded striking of the southpaw Jouban. His left cross and right uppercut serve as vicious weapons and are complimented by a beautiful left round kick. To be sure, Jouban is hittable, but he still defends 61 percent of the significant strikes lobbed at him, compared to Saunders blocking less than 53 percent. What is worse, although Saunders will have four inches of both arm and leg reach on “Brahma,” he is not the better distance fighter; worse still, Saunders will find no currency in the clinch, where he has traditionally ruled due to his massive 6-foot-3 frame. The 36-year-old is Jouban one of only two men to record two standing elbow knockouts in the UFC, and the other, Travis Browne, did not do it “standing” so much but with his trademark side elbows while defending takedowns. In Saunders’ last bout, he was decimated by Peter Sobotta for just over seven minutes and, tellingly, knocked out with a clinch knee by the smaller man. Saunders is going to have to land something decisive on a charging Jouban early on to have a chance here, but given his competitive circumstances, this seems unlikely. Jouban puts the heat on Saunders and knocks him out in nasty fashion in the first half of the contest.
Last Fights » Early Prelims
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