Preview: UFC 212 ‘Aldo vs. Holloway’

Bantamweights

Raphael Assuncao (24-5) vs. Marlon Moraes (18-4-1): Five years ago, Moraes was a fighter with limited prospects, sporting an unremarkable 5-4-1 record. Since then, he has rattled off 13 straight wins, six of them for the World Series of Fighting bantamweight title. Training alongside dynamos like Edson Barboza and Frankie Edgar under the tutelage of Mark Henry, the Brazilian has developed into a marvelous technical kickboxer, with sound defense, solid boxing fundamentals and the best low kicks in his division. Now 29 years old, the time is right for Moraes to make his way to the UFC; and as demanded by his outstanding success in a smaller promotion, Moraes does not get an easy fight for his promotional debut. Assuncao has long been among the most underrated fighters on the UFC roster. He is 8-2 in the promotion, with wins over a tough vet (Johnny Eduardo), a blue-chip prospect (Aljamain Sterling) and a future champion (T.J. Dillashaw). Despite his world-class grappling, Assuncao’s bread-and-butter is his precise striking. Assuncao has some of the best footwork in the division, and, in concert with his subtle head movement, he uses it to create angles for counters. Assuncao has considerable power, but speed and accuracy are his best attributes. Moraes tends to cover up in response to punches, a style of defense tailor-made for the uppercuts and straights of Assuncao. As well as Assuncao defends punches, however, he has always been vulnerable to low kicks. This one could easily go either way, but if Moraes sticks to his kicks and makes himself a moving target, he can edge out a decision over a very game opponent. The pick is Moraes by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Antonio Carlos Jr. (7-2) vs. Eric Spicely (10-1): Since winning “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3,” Carlos has not necessarily performed like the blue-chip prospect most analysts expected him to be. Still, the 27-year-old continues to make strides, and with a helpful step down in competition, he is poised to get back on track. Spicely has also defied analysts. Despite losing his UFC debut via humiliating guillotine, normal-guy Spicely has won two straight since, including a shocking upset submission over fringe contender Thiago Santos. Spicely is almost purely a grappler, but the confidence he shows in the ground game and the relentlessness with which he pursues it gives him something of that Demian Maia vibe. Even so, Carlos looks like a rough matchup. The Brazilian is not only a jiu-jitsu black belt with numerous achievements on the mats but a stellar athlete and a power takedown artist. Striking and stamina have been the weaknesses for Carlos, and while Spicely’s slow pace might enable him to compete for the duration of the bout, his striking is virtually nonexistent and he typically shows no interest in testing it out. If Carlos can match Spicely on the ground while outdoing him with wrestling and striking, this is his fight to lose. The pick is Carlos by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Johnny Eduardo (28-10) vs. Matthew Lopez (9-1): An established if infrequent UFC veteran, Eduardo continues to notch wins even as he enters his 21st year as a professional fighter. While time has taken a sliver of his speed, Eduardo remains a stout defender of takedowns with venomous muay Thai. He has some of the crispest offense in his entire weight class, but his strikes are more or less divorced from whatever stiff upper-body movement he possesses: When Eduardo attacks, his head sits in place. As if to compensate, Eduardo has spent his entire UFC career counter fighting, forcing his opponents to lead before blocking and unleashing a swift combination or withering low kick. Sometimes that style means a slow fight, but something tells me young gun Lopez will not take long to indulge Eduardo’s desire. Lopez is known for his swarming style and aggressive submission wrestling. When Rani Yahya schooled him in his UFC debut, however, he came back with improved striking and safely tempered confidence to beat the underrated Mitch Gagnon. To get the win, Lopez had to survive a tough spot. Shortly into the first round, Lopez reverted to his overaggressive roots and paid the price, going down after a cracking counter from Gagnon. Eduardo’s patience will invite a similar mistake, and his long experience and quick triggers should enable him to capitalize. Lopez is a dominant grappler, but he often relies on his opponent to force the grappling game. Eduardo will utilize muay Thai first and foremost, as always. The pick is Eduardo by second-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Iuri Alcantara (35-7) vs. Brian Kelleher (16-7): Before November 2014, Kelleher was 10-6, winless in all but one of his last four fights. He faced quality opposition, no doubt, but his patchy MMA game made it difficult for him to adapt. At the time, Kelleher was a flashy striker with a ground game based more on confidence than on skill. Now, Kelleher can time a clean double-leg takedown or snatch a guillotine as his opponent attempts to return the favor. He throws more combinations and seems to feel free to be creative on the feet, as evinced by his spectacular spinning backfist knockout of Josh Robinson. Whether by knockout or submission, Kelleher has no shortage of killer instinct: He has finished 13 of his 16 professional wins. Alcantara’s resume is far longer and no less impressive. With 35 wins to his name, Alcantara has notched 14 knockouts and 14 submissions. Alcantara was always an all-out, all-offense fighter, but in recent years, he has started to reap the rewards of his extensive experience. A newly layered wrestling game allows Alcantara to better control the location of the fighting; and while the Brazilian is still no master defender on the feet, he has learned to corral his aggression and pick his spots a little more carefully. Kelleher is a crafty fighter in his own right, however, and he will have ample opportunities to time a takedown to one of Alcantara’s lunging strikes. Neither man has ever been knocked out, so this one should be a scrap. The pick is Kelleher by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Viviane Pereira (12-0) vs. Jamie Moyle (3-1): Moyle is grimy and scrappy, and training under Syndicate MMA maestro John Wood, she seems to be improving at a rapid rate. Given the tenacity with which the extremely under-experienced Moyle took on Kailin Curran in December, one also expects her to carry more confidence into her next Octagon appointment. Pereira’s own UFC debut was not quite as compelling, but it came over a much more experienced opponent in former title challenger Valerie Letourneau. Pereira is an explosive athlete who carries herself tensely loaded to strike. Though they may surprise, Pereira’s strikes rarely convey fight-ending power. Regardless, she is quite experienced for such a young fighter, and that experience shows in the exchanges. Where Moyle tends to duck her head and times wide swings, Pereira prefers a defensive approach, deftly intercepting strikes with her hands and whipping her head out of range. If Moyle can score takedowns with regularity, her strong ground-and-pound could become a factor, but Pereira’s speed and cautious style should enable her to frustrate the less experienced fighter. Pereira by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Luan Chagas (14-2-1) vs. Jim Wallhead (29-10): Wallhead fell flat in his UFC debut against the unheralded Jessin Ayari, but the veteran Englishman has more to offer. What threw off Wallhead in his last outing was Ayari’s reach and lateral movement. Wallhead likes to press forward, but he struggles to cut off the cage. Chagas not only lacks the footwork for that kind of strategy, but he likes to press the action himself. Keeping his opponent in front of him, however, is only half of Wallhead’s battle. The Leicester fighter has been knocked out twice and stunned many other times. He likes to trade punches in the pocket, but Chagas has heavy hands and sneaky, dangerous kicks. Wallhead’s experience and boxing technique should be the deciding factor here, but the 23 year-old Chagas is more than capable of surprising his older, more shopworn opponent. Wallhead by unanimous decision is the pick.

Flyweights

Marco Beltran (8-4) vs. Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo (11-0): Career bantamweight Beltran will make his flyweight debut against undefeated promotional newcomer Figueiredo. The prospect is an aggressive counterpuncher who likes to stay close to his opponents and wait for the opportunity to drop a bomb. While “Daico” is not a particularly high-output fighter, there is something relentless about the way he approaches the stand-up game. He swaggers forward in a self-assured, hands-down stance, taking whatever his opponent throws at him as if to make a point. Even when hurt -- and he is profoundly hittable -- Figueiredo is liable to drop a hammer on his opponent and follow him to the ground, where his quality top control and aggressive, postured-up striking make him a serious threat. Though this attitude may have an effect on Beltran, Figueiredo will have to cover a lot of ground to overcome Beltran’s height and reach. Figueiredo will look for the takedown, and if Beltran indulges his desire to play guard, he will find himself stacked and smashed against the fence, eating punches. If he uses the fence to get up and defend takedowns, as he did against Reginaldo Vieira, his mobility and speed should allow him to pick apart Figueiredo with kicks from long range. The pick is Beltran by unanimous decision.

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