Preview: UFC 214 ‘Cormier vs. Jones 2’

Featherweights

Ricardo Lamas (17-5) vs. Jason Knight (20-2): With four straight wins under his belt -- the latest a remarkable TKO over Chas Skelly -- Knight is poised for a run at the title, but he needs a statement win before he can challenge. Lamas, the No. 3 featherweight in the UFC, would certainly qualify as a contender-making win for the young man known as “Mississippi Mean.” While Lamas on the feet is a good deal slicker than most of Knight’s past opponents -- his fondness for sniping low kicks may come in particularly handy against the boxing-heavy Knight -- he can still be caught out by aggressive combination punchers. Lamas will throw down when he has to, but that is kind of how Knight fights all the time. Scowling and marching forward with both hands cocked, Knight throws like a brawler but with the timing and hand speed of an experienced boxer. Both men are fairly even in the athleticism department, with Lamas owning a bit more strength and Knight a noticeable advantage in speed. As an opportunistic submission artist with solid wrestling, takedowns will be key for Lamas. Knight has worked hard on improving his wrestling, but he still fumbles when the opponent chains together attempts. He is phenomenally aggressive off his back, with both submissions and strikes, and that often allows him to create a scramble or sweep. Lamas, however, has never been submitted, and he has underrated and vicious ground-and-pound. To use it, however, he will need to posture up, and that gives Knight an opportunity to escape. If “Hick Diaz” stays standing for most of the fight, then his fast pace and fast hands will poke holes in Lamas’ defense. If he has not continued to improve his wrestling, Lamas might have his number. Either way, do not blink. The pick is Knight by unanimous decision.

Catchweight

Aljamain Sterling (13-2) vs. Renan Barao (34-4): Of all the improvements Sterling showed in his fight with Augusto Mendes, his defensive boxing stood out. Sterling landed more than twice as many strikes as his opponent, keeping a steady pace throughout the fight, and in the third round, where Sterling was getting loose and Mendes was beginning to slow, “Aljo” made his opponent miss on all but nine of 41 strikes. This time out, Sterling faces a far more technical kickboxer in Barao. The former bantamweight champ does like to surge forward in straight lines -- T.J. Dillashaw dramatically proved the effectiveness of agile footwork against him -- so if Sterling has continued to make great strides, then the slips, rolls, pivots and sidesteps he used to prevent Mendes from cornering him are very promising signs. Still, Barao fights with more discipline these days. If Sterling tries to box him, the Brazilian could easily use the same approach he did versus Phillipe Nover, circling on the outside and building momentum by repeatedly and aggressively countering the opponent’s attacks. I am not convinced that Sterling has the craft and experience necessary to push the pace against so many powerful ripostes, which leaves him with only his wrestling and submission grappling. These are potent areas of expertise, to be sure. Like his teammate Chris Weidman, Sterling works a killer series of chokes from the front headlock. He is also a versatile wrestler, capable of either dragging his opponent to the ground from the clinch or timing a clean double-leg in open space. One recalls the Raphael Assuncao fight, however, in which Sterling’s inability to complete takedowns left him looking just a little bewildered on the feet. As noted, his striking has improved since then, but Barao is an even better defensive wrestler than Assuncao. Since his World Extreme Cagefighting debut in 2010, Barao has given up just one takedown, and that was in his first WEC fight. This wrestling skill will allow Barao to control the location of the fight, and he will methodically figure out how to control the fight itself. The pick is Barao by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Brian Ortega (11-0) vs. Renato Carneiro (11-0-1): In all likelihood, “Moicano” will be just a little too well-schooled on the feet for Ortega. Though he has some surprising skill on the counter, Ortega has never demonstrated a keen understanding of footwork. He tends to move forward in large, telegraphed lunges, and while there is enough variety in these to surprise a timid opponent, Carneiro showed in his fight with Jeremy Stephens that he is not one to flinch. If Carneiro consents to come forward, Ortega’s jab and counters could be a problem, but in a staring contest, it will be the eager Ortega who chooses to lead first. Ultimately, in order to win, Ortega simply must take “Moicano” to the ground. The Brazilian is no slouch on the floor, having earned five of his 11 victories via rear-naked choke, but he would not be the first skilled grappler Ortega submitted or beat up on the mat. The California native handed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Diego Sanchez his first submission loss in over eight years, and it was his silky-smooth transitions that enabled him to do so. Ortega has a fairly straight-forward, old school ground game, but he is always active, aggressive and willing to chain together a handful of submission attempts to get the win. His style contrasts strongly with the more conservative, opportunistic, MMA-tailored ground game of “Moicano.” It looks like we are in for a dicey battle of jabs and scrambles, and in that kind of fight, the composed, strategic style of “Moicano” should make the difference. The pick is Carneiro by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Andre Fili (16-4) vs. Calvin Kattar (16-2): While Kattar’s leaping strikes can make him vulnerable to takedown attempts, he scrambles exceptionally well, adjusting his weight and changing angles as necessary to end up on top. On the ground, Kattar uses a high-pressure, grinding style, though he will create space enough for some sharp punches and elbows once his opponent is thoroughly stuck on his back. He also throws accurate, hard punches in transitions, whether on the ground or in the clinch. Kattar’s defense has been questionable in the past, and while he can still be forced into a shell and attacked with precision, he has developed his boxing game into something resembling Pat Curran in his prime or perhaps Jorge Masvidal at his most aggressive. Hands high, knees bent, Kattar throws quick, crisp punches and uses his intelligent guard to deflect counters. Ironically, “The Boston Finisher” has now gone seven years and six fights without a finish; as his skills improve, he seems to favor speed and accuracy over power, though he still a hurtful puncher in exchanges and transitions. To beat Kattar, Fili will need to find some way to counter his footwork and boxing ability. His solution against the somewhat similar Gabriel Benitez was to apply constant pressure, accepting a few counters as he chipped away with sweeping round kicks, ultimately creating an opening for the finish via head kick. Unlike Benitez, however, Kattar can counter pressure with reactive takedowns, and there is more variety and creativity to his striking, as well, making those counters harder to stymie. The pick is Kattar by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Kailin Curran (4-4) vs. Aleksandra Albu (3-0): Curran is a good athlete. She is well-built for the women’s strawweight division. She is only 26 years old. Yet, despite the obvious faith of the UFC, which has kept Curran around despite a 1-4 record within the promotion, the Hawaiian prospect only seems capable of making the most superficial of improvements. Distance management is a problem for Curran, who constantly finds herself falling into the clinch with superior wrestlers while punching. Defense is another: Curran reacts to strikes with frantic improvisation rather than schooled technique. Perhaps Curran’s greatest flaw, however, is a lack of “Fight IQ” or what I would call “process.” She will show newly polished tactics, but she is perpetually at a loss for strategic direction; she stays locked into the clinch, shoots for takedowns and throws punches without using them to set up future attacks. In the Octagon she is aimless, always unsure of how to actually beat the woman standing in front of her. On this occasion, that woman is Albu. Though Albu’s wide-open stance and constantly exposed jaw -- she does not lift her chin so much as he juts it out -- will give Curran opportunities to counter, the Russian fighter clearly possesses the sense of strategic purpose her counterpart lacks. Albu will move forward, counter with punches and use inside grips to thwart takedown attempts. Though her Wanderlei Silva-esque approach to wrestling is a little outmoded, Albu’s tremendous upper-body strength gives her great control even with just a single collar tie. Albu is the harder hitter and physically stronger. Against a fighter with Curran’s peculiar lack of process, those simply advantages should be enough. Albu by unanimous decision is the pick.

Flyweights

Eric Shelton (10-3) vs Jarred Brooks (12-0): For a young fighter with great potential, Shelton is not being handled gently by the UFC. He gave former Resurrection Fighting Alliance champion Alexandre Pantoja a solid fight but could not quite match his pace. Now, he will be taking on an even more aggressive fighter who, with an even mix of finishes and decisions on his record, is capable of pushing the pace as long as he needs to. The man is Brooks, an athletic wrestler with heavy hands and potent submissions. Brooks has faced a solid slate of opposition over the last three years, handing losses to two undefeated prospects and dominating some more experienced journeymen. He has been reckless on the feet throughout this run but so quick and aggressive that his opponents are rarely prepared to counter. Shelton is probably not well-disposed to test Brooks on the feet. He has fast hands and knows a few slick set-ups, but his overall boxing has a long way to go. As a sort of “generic” prospect, a well-rounded fighter without too many standout skills, Shelton does show flashes of brilliance on the ground. Like many MMA natives, he excels in transitions, and his reactive takedowns are almost as pretty as the brutal, sprinting ground-and-pound which follows. Brooks is a phenomenal athlete in his own right, however, and an excellent scrambler. Shelton struggled to hold Pantoja down for long, and he is not likely to enjoy more success in that department against Brooks, at least not without substantial improvements. The pick is Brooks by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Joshua Burkman (28-15) vs. Drew Dober (17-8): Dober took a loss in his last fight, but the young veteran has only gotten better since his first appearance in the UFC. Dober is a real student of the game. After his sensational knockout win over Jason Gonzalez at UFC 203, Dober commented: “I got a little too excited. My elbows came out and my head stayed stationary. I have a lot of things to improve on.” Now that he has stationed himself at Denver’s Elevation Fight Team, alongside renowned coach Eliot Marshall, Dober seems to have the resources at his disposal to make those improvements a reality. Burkman was rocked and then quickly submitted in his last fight, so he will likely look to keep his distance and kick with Dober. This is something Dober can do, but he is most dangerous when he can get his short arms into play. Burkman also likes to counterpunch, and this long distance would give him the chance to clip Dober with a hard shot on the way in. Throughout his career, however, Burkman has been prone to certain lapses. He sometimes seems to be perplexed by his own encyclopedic skill set, unsure which of the dozens of paths available to him he should take at any moment. Dober suffers no such shortcomings. He stays mobile, puts together combinations and shoots for takedowns to keep his opponent honest. One gets the sense that Burkman is nearing the end of his long and impressive career, while Dober is only just entering his prime. The pick is Dober by first-round TKO.

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