Preview: UFC 224 ‘Nunes vs. Pennington’

Middleweights

Cezar Ferreira (12-6) vs. Karl Roberson (6-0)

Odds: Ferreira (-105), Roberson (-115)

Roberson burst onto the scene with a 15-second standing elbow-induced knockout on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, and he followed that up with a first-round submission of Devin Clark in his proper UFC debut. A former Glory kickboxer, Roberson is physically powerful and dropped to 185 for the first time against Clark, further accentuating his size and strength. The even split between knockouts and submissions on his record speaks to a well-roundedness unexpected of a former professional striker. But at 6-0, “Baby K” is still largely untested. The southpaw has booming left crosses and round kicks, and he hit a beautiful lateral drop on Clark right into a back-take, but his overall wrestling and grappling abilities are still question marks. That is not the case for Ferreira, a 12-fight UFC veteran and former TUF Brazil winner. The Vitor Belfort protégé has become much more cautious and calculated since suffering consecutive knockouts to Sam Alvey and Jorge Masvidal. “Mutante” now displays a strong aversion to mixing it up in close quarters, preferring to pot-shot at long range with his own lightning fast southpaw cross and a variety of kicks. The Brazilian has also become increasingly reliant on, and effective with, his wrestling. On the mat, he can protect his suspect chin, score points, and put his BJJ black belt to good use. Ferreira isn’t going to want to stay at long range with a bigger, more powerful, high-level kickboxer for the whole fight, so he’ll look to close distance and test Roberson on the floor at some point. Ferreira has a great reactive shot, but Roberson has thus far displayed a poise and patience that makes him unlikely to march in and give up his hips. And he’s already displayed his dynamism in close quarters if Ferreira tries to work takedowns against the fence. Still, I have to side with the more tested and more technical fighter until Roberson can prove he’s got the skills to take out top-20 middleweights. Ferreira stays on his bike, pot-shots and scores a much-needed takedown or two to take a decision.

Heavyweights

Alexey Oleynik (55-11-1) vs. Junior Albini (14-3)

Odds: Albini (-155), Oleynik (+135)

Albini created buzz that he might be the next big thing at heavyweight by knocking out Tim Johnson with a pair of left hooks in his big show debut. In addition to the power in his hands, the Brazilian is a dexterous kicker and surprisingly lithe grappler, despite his build. But his inexperience showed in his disappointing sophomore outing with Andrei Arlovski. The former champion dictated the range, stepped inside with multi-punch combinations, eating the single counters Albini offered in return. Arlovski also worked the body around Albini’s customary high guard, wearing the 27-year-old out. The Astra Fight Team rep squares off with Oleynik, a crafty and profoundly experienced grappling specialist. Despite his reputation as a submission expert, Oleynik is no slouch throwing hands. He typically pressures so he can clinch or shoot, but he fires a nice 3-2 and has a powerful overhand right and uppercut. Now 40, Oleynik remains tough as old leather, but he was just dominated by Curtis Blaydes, a faster athlete and superior wrestler. Albini does not fit that mold, though. We could see Albini run him into another left hook, but otherwise, the Russian will make this an ugly fight, drag him to the mat, and earn the 43rd submission of his career.

Lightweights

Davi Ramos (7-2) vs. Nick Hein (14-2)

Odds: Ramos (-150), Hein (+130)

Hein is returning for the first time since a decision win over Tae Hyun Bang 20 months ago. An injury nixed a potential drop to featherweight and a showdown with Zabit Magomedsharipov, so he jumps back into the lightweight pool here. The German is 4-1 in the UFC, but of the men he’s beaten, only Drew Dober remains with the company. The Tiger Muay Thai fighter is a solid southpaw boxer who likes to dart in with two- and three-punch combinations and fire counter crosses down the pipe. He is also a judo black belt. Hein isn’t an overwhelming takedown or top control artist, though trips will come when he ties up. What his background has thus far afforded him is rock-solid takedown defense and the ability to quickly scramble out of bad positions. He’ll need those skills against former BJJ world champion Ramos. The Brazilian is built, has solid wrestling, and swings shockingly fast hooks with both hands. Both men have a bad habit of floating through periods of inactivity, but Hein is worse in that regard, often sitting back and waiting to counter for extended stretches. His weak opposition has largely meant he hasn’t had to pay for it. He will here. Ramos hits harder, has faster hands, and mixes in kicks and knees more often. The Team Nogueira rep’s high-energy attacks and muscular frame can sap his cardio, but Hein doesn’t have the style to make him work and capitalize. Ramos may not be able to drag “Sergeant” to the mat consistently, but he’ll land harder and more often whenever the distance closes on his way to a decision victory.

Welterweights

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (18-5) vs. Sean Strickland (19-2)

Odds: dos Santos (-135), Strickland (+115)

Because Zaleski is involved in this scrap, it will be exciting, and because Strickland makes up the other half, it will be a tactical battle. That encapsulates both men’s striking styles. The Brazilian is a boxer-puncher given to occasional brawling, but he’s at his best snapping his jab and following it up with his potent right hand. Because he typically partakes in frenetic, high-action tilts, he absorbs his fair share of punishment; his hands can drop and his jab disappears. “Capoeira” also likes his spinning attacks, and his leg kicks are a quality, if underutilized weapon. Strickland is sharp, with his own blistering jab, and he does as good a job of fighting tall as anyone. His head is an elusive target, not the stationary, vulnerable one of other tall fighters like Stefan Struve. The Kings MMA rep is what former Sherdog analyst Connor Ruebusch calls a “young veteran.” Such a fighter is one who has been fighting grown men since he was a teenager - Strickland turned pro at 17 - and has thus developed a style predicated on surviving, then winning, individual exchanges. Guys like Strickland, Jorge Masvidal, and Jordan Mein can therefore sometimes lose sight of the forest for the trees, cruising through competitive fights. Because they aren’t getting hurt, they feel they are winning and thus don’t step on the gas. Think of Masvidal’s controversial loss to Al Iaquinta after blasting him in the first round. Zaleski dos Santos does not suffer from such an affliction. His aggression could run him into trouble, but he moves his head well while throwing. The Brazilian snatches a very tight decision.

Finish Reading » Fight Pass Prelims