Preview: UFC 271 Prelims

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Lightweights

NR | Renato Carneiro (15-4-1, 7-4 UFC) vs. NR | Alexander Hernandez (13-4, 5-3 UFC)

ODDS: Carneiro (-170), Hernandez (+150)

This is an excellent crossroads fight between two frustrating lightweight talents. Hernandez was a revelation upon hitting the UFC in 2018, as he used an aggressive pressure game to quickly knock out Beneil Dariush and dominate Olivier Aubin-Mercier, ending the year as a ranked contender. Come 2019, Donald Cerrone blew open every hole in Hernandez’s game in a one-sided fight, and “Alexander The Great” has seemingly struggled to adapt since. There are flashes of the old Hernandez against opponents he can obviously overwhelm, but his fights against better competition are marked by caution that he has then been unable to turn into consistent effectiveness. Hernandez has more years as a professional than you would expect, but he is still a top athlete on the right side of 30, so there is hope he can eventually hone his skills into something more complete. In the meantime, he faces a crucial fight against Carneiro. The Brazilian’s own breakout win came in 2017, when he was a bit of a surprising choice to take on Jeremy Stephens. “Moicano” was regarded as a talented featherweight prospect, but his UFC career up to that point had been marred by injuries. He then put on the best performance of his career to date, implementing his striking from range and making Stephens look one-dimensional in the process. From there, Carneiro managed to hang around on the fringes of title contention through the combination of his striking and a vicious grappling game, but he eventually hit a clear ceiling against the power punchers of the division. Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung tore through him, the latter in under a minute. Carneiro responded with a move to lightweight, where it has mostly been the same story. Carneiro is at his best when he can stay at range and somewhat dictate the fight—whether it is on the feet or hunting for a submission—but he can be uncomfortable against persistent and hard hitters, as was the case in his 2020 loss to Rafael Fiziev. It remains unclear which side of that spectrum Hernandez falls on in 2022. The 2018 version of Hernandez would have run over Carneiro without much thought or issue, but this more thoughtful version of the American could give him enough time and space to feel comfortable and make this an even fight. Even the less effective version of Hernandez has some paths to victory. He is the harder hitter and has enough wrestling chops to stop Carneiro from getting this to the mat. However, given that he still likes to test out his opponents early, he could just quickly get the ball rolling towards a finish if he finds that Carneiro is not physical enough to scare him off. In a bit of a flier, the pick is that Hernandez recaptures some of his old form and scores a first-round knockout.

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