Preview: UFC Fight Night 124 ‘Stephens vs. Choi’

Women’s Flyweight

Jessica Eye (11-6) vs. Kalindra Faria (18-6-1)

ODDS: Eye (-120), Faria (+100)

ANALYSIS: Our odds here are largely influenced over recent happenings. Eye had her two proposed 2017 bouts with Aspen Ladd and Paige VanZant fall apart due to illness and injury; meanwhile, Faria has been corrupted by the fact that she was a solid -220 favorite in her UFC debut against Mara Romero Borella before being destroyed in less than three minutes. This bout depends on how consistently Eye implements her boxing game. The Ohio native has three inches of reach and a far more disciplined game with her hands. However, Faria is more naturally aggressive, implements her kicking offense much more readily and has the opportunities to beguile the judges with aimless takedowns or largely ineffectual top position. Eye is unlikely to face any serious fight-ending threats from Faria, but unless she is absolutely on point with her counter jab-right cross and the combinations that flow from it, she will largely be overworked in the eyes of the judges. Cynical though it may sound, look for Faria to kick from distance and potshot her way to a close, competitive decision.

Women’s Bantamweight

Irene Aldana (7-4) vs. Talita Bernardo (5-2)

ODDS: Aldana (-235), Bernardo (+195)

ANALYSIS: In 2018, we do not see too many striker-versus-grappler matchups the way we did during the no-holds-barred era of MMA, but this is the more modern incarnation. Bernardo is yet another product of Brazil’s Parana Vale Tudo camp, probably the most outstanding stable of women’s MMA talent in the world right now, featuring Invicta Fighting Championships titlist Jennifer Maia and UFC contender Jessica Andrade. In Aldana, we have another great Mexican hope for the UFC. Bernardo is not without recourse on the feet, but Aldana’s boxing game gives her a clear advantage standing in this matchup. This fight will be dictated by how well Aldana maintains distance and, more operatively, how aggressively she can throw her right hand, whether countering or not. In her UFC losses to Leslie Smith and Katlyn Chookagian, “Robles” landed the best punches of the fight but was forced into long bouts of inactivity because of an unwillingness to commit to her strikes over fear of the takedown. Bernardo is so obvious and transparent in her pursuit of the double-leg takedown it should give Aldana all the heads-up she needs to maintain distance and use her powerful right hand effectively. Aldana on points is the call.

Women’s Strawweight

J.J. Aldrich (5-2) vs. Danielle Taylor (9-2)

ODDS: Aldrich (-130), Taylor (+110)

ANALYSIS: This fight in terms of matchmaking is quite valuable to the 115-pound weight class. In terms of action? Well, that is a whole other story. Aldrich is an active if largely unskilled competitor, relying on volume and overwhelming her adversaries with bushels of strikes to get her hand raised. Almost a polar opposite, Taylor is a polished counter-boxer whose biggest problem is actual offensive output. Taylor’s 2.98 significant strikes landed per minute is low for a fighter who is a talented striker, but “Dynamite” is, conversely to her nickname, almost gruesome to watch as she recoils from opponents, seldom unfurling her talented right hand. Nonetheless, it cannot be overlooked that Taylor could easily be 0-3 in the UFC, but her low-output, controlled style seems to appeal to the judges. The southpaw Aldrich, who enjoys seven inches of reach and four inches of leg reach, is going to throw more volume and has a better chance to influence the judges, so the call here is the Colorado native by a nip-tuck decision. However, Taylor seemingly never fails to draw opponents into her style of counter-oriented, strike-for-strike fighting, and if Aldrich is seduced as such, she risks losing the same sort of close decision Taylor’s three previous opponents have felt.

Featherweight

Mads Burnell (8-2) vs. Mike Santiago (19-10)

ODDS: Santiago (-170), Burnell (+150)

ANALYSIS: This is a featherweight pairing of two fighters that caught raw-deal matchmaking in their UFC debuts. Santiago, fresh off a stoppage win of Mark Cherico on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, walked into the blue-chip buzzsaw known as Zabit Magomedsharipov on short-notice in his first Octagon assignment in September; Burnell was a late replacement as well, filling in for Islam Makhachev against Michel Prazeres on the same UFC Fight Night 115 card in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Both of them drew initial opponents terrible for their own offensive styles. Against one another, the bout should come down to whether or not Burnell can get an early and active top position game brewing. Santiago is a much longer, sharper boxer who has far more to offer in combination, while Burnell is the hyper-aggressive scrambling grappler who can capitalize on a brief lapse in defense. Neither of them could put their best foot forward against their respective debut opponents, but against each other, there is much more potential. Santiago is not a poor defensive grappler, but he was rather overwhelmed by Magomedsharipov’s truly unique combination of “Showtime” kicks and takedown attempts; the longer American should be able to tag Burnell from distance behind his jab and combos, while snaking back up along the fence if taken down in a fashion Magomedsharipov would not permit. Santiago on points is the pick.

Bantamweight

Guido Cannetti (7-2) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (13-7)

ODDS: Kang (-345), Cannetti (+285)

ANALYSIS: Here are two different ways to spend a significant amount of time outside the Octagon. You can be like Kang, have a South Korean passport and be forced to miss over three years of action due to federally mandated military service; or you can be like Cannetti and serve a 10-month USADA suspension for testing positive for chlorothiazide, hydrochlorothiazide and ostarine due to a tainted supplement. Regardless, Cannetti is a fairly vanilla southpaw kickboxer, mostly an opportunistic out-fighter who will capitalize if he can counter and hurt opponents. Kang may have spent three years away from competition, but he is a surprisingly well-rounded fighter and a bruising tank that will not be deterred by Cannetti’s distance striking. Kang’s lunging strikes will be the most powerful shots in the exchanges, on top of the fact that the Korean is the more likely party to finish the contest if he is able to stun the Argentinian and then transition to a dominant position, most likely back control, where he is most apt. Kang excels when he can hunt down his opponents, hurt them and then transition off of their desperate, defensive grappling attempts. If he cannot hurt Cannetti outright on the feet, he will win a one-sided decision, but if he can bust up his counterpart or damage him from top control, there is a very real chance that Kang hurts Cannetti and chokes him out in the first 10 minutes.