Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Masvidal’
Specialty Selections
Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for
degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just
cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,”
though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually
earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured
destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of
admission.
LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
BEST VALUE: Alberto Mina. There are tempting bets all over this card, but I just keep coming back to Mina. He is the strongest underdog on the card, and his odds are tempting. You might consider sweetening the deal with a “Mina inside the distance” bet, which is currently going for +250.
LIVE DOG: Mina. He may be a part-time MMA fighter, but he is also dangerous in the extreme. Mina has a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a second-degree black belt in judo. As he proved against the tough Shinsho Anzai, he can crack, too. Yoshihiro Akiyama is a fan favorite, but he is 40 years old and just one fight and several injuries away from a four-fight losing streak. At about +150 across the board, Mina is a strong bet.
SURE THING: Dong Hyun Kim. He is not as sure as I would like him to be. If he goes berserk and chases after Dominic Waters the way he did Tyron Woodley, things could end up badly for him. Then again, even the nutjob version of Kim stands a solid chance of beating Waters, who lacks the experience and durability necessary to hang with elite welterweights. Kim is a veritable lock to win and, at -550, the odds reflect that.
CAN’T MISS: Mike de la Torre vs. Yui Chul Nam. In terms of pure action fights, it doesn’t get much better than this. De la Torre is a fun scrapper with a solid punch and leaky defense. Nam is a maniac who throws with reckless abandon. What’s not to like? Honorable mention has to go to Doo Ho Choi, who is worth watching no matter how he is matched.
SMOKE BREAK: Seo Hee Ham vs. Cortney Casey. Ham is not a finisher, but she is probably going to win this bout. Casey, on the other hand, is plenty dangerous but lacks the tactical direction to fight to her strengths. All of this indicates that their bout could be dull, frustrating or both.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.
* * *
Legend
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
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LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is
predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was
always going to win, does the victor still have free will?
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
* * *
BEST VALUE: Alberto Mina. There are tempting bets all over this card, but I just keep coming back to Mina. He is the strongest underdog on the card, and his odds are tempting. You might consider sweetening the deal with a “Mina inside the distance” bet, which is currently going for +250.
LIVE DOG: Mina. He may be a part-time MMA fighter, but he is also dangerous in the extreme. Mina has a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a second-degree black belt in judo. As he proved against the tough Shinsho Anzai, he can crack, too. Yoshihiro Akiyama is a fan favorite, but he is 40 years old and just one fight and several injuries away from a four-fight losing streak. At about +150 across the board, Mina is a strong bet.
SURE THING: Dong Hyun Kim. He is not as sure as I would like him to be. If he goes berserk and chases after Dominic Waters the way he did Tyron Woodley, things could end up badly for him. Then again, even the nutjob version of Kim stands a solid chance of beating Waters, who lacks the experience and durability necessary to hang with elite welterweights. Kim is a veritable lock to win and, at -550, the odds reflect that.
CAN’T MISS: Mike de la Torre vs. Yui Chul Nam. In terms of pure action fights, it doesn’t get much better than this. De la Torre is a fun scrapper with a solid punch and leaky defense. Nam is a maniac who throws with reckless abandon. What’s not to like? Honorable mention has to go to Doo Ho Choi, who is worth watching no matter how he is matched.
SMOKE BREAK: Seo Hee Ham vs. Cortney Casey. Ham is not a finisher, but she is probably going to win this bout. Casey, on the other hand, is plenty dangerous but lacks the tactical direction to fight to her strengths. All of this indicates that their bout could be dull, frustrating or both.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.
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