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Flyweights

#10 FLW | David Dvorak (20-3, 3-0 UFC) vs. #7 FLW | Matheus Nicolau (17-2-1, 5-1 UFC)

ODDS: Dvorak (-135), Nicolau (+115)

The UFC’s flyweight division is as strong as it has ever been, and this is an interesting fight to sort things out between two rising talents. It has been nice to see Nicolau back in the UFC, as he never should have been cut in the first place. The winner of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” Season 4, Nicolau was quietly marching up the ranks before a 2018 loss to Dustin Ortiz, after which he was surprisingly released as the UFC attempted to tear down the flyweight division. With a renewed interest in the 125 pounders, Nicolau is back in the fold and won both of his fights since his return, although his bout last March against Manel Kape was a controversial split decision result. Nicolau is about as skilled as anyone in the division, but he makes things closer than they should be thanks to a passive and low-output approach, focusing on big counters on the feet to supplement a strong grappling game. So far, Nicolau has stayed on the right side of some thin margins, and he will try to do so again in his latest assignment. Dvorak did not gain much hype on the Czech scene, but “The Undertaker” has looked excellent thus far in three UFC wins. He also has a counter-heavy approach but has a constant commitment to movement in either his hands or his feet, resulting in a high-paced striking attack. Dvorak has not pursued his wrestling much thus far in the UFC, but he excelled on the mat prior to making it to the Octagon, so that figures to be a feather in his pocket if that is where this fight goes. Dvorak is hittable and Nicolau can reel off a huge counter, so there is a chance that the Brazilian ends this with one huge shot. On the flipside, it does feel likelier that Dvorak’s constant activity, whether real or implied, forces Nicolau into losing rounds while he tries to find an opening. The grappling realm might be where Nicolau has an advantage, but that also feels like it will be a bit of a wash, meaning that Dvorak can win this on pace and volume, even if it could be a frustrating affair at times. The pick is Dvorak via decision.

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