Preview: UFC 211 ‘Miocic vs. Dos Santos 2’
Specialty Sections
Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:
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Legend
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
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LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is
predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was
always going to win, does the victor still have free will?
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
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BEST VALUE: Junior dos Santos. BetDSI currently has the Brazilian set at +115. While I can understand giving the champ the benefit of the doubt, and Miocic has certainly had a better run since their first meeting, dos Santos beat the Strong Style Fight Team standout the first time they met. He beat him soundly, in fact, winning at least three rounds and probably four. Miocic was and still is an opponent who will make him work hard and heavyweight power is about as unpredictable a variable as you could ask for, but dos Santos has the style edge over Miocic and probably should not be the underdog.
LIVE DOG: There are lots of live dogs to be had here, but Marco Polo Reyes probably has the best chance relative to his odds. At +310, Reyes is being flat-out undervalued by bettors; and while James Vick is a tough matchup for him, Reyes has the power and craft to catch his hittable opponent off-guard.
SURE THING: It is a sign of quality matchmaking when no fight seems like a sure thing. Such is the case with UFC 211. Honestly, it would be irresponsible for me to guarantee any fight on this entire card. Gabriel Benitez might be your best bet, though. He faces an awkward and skilled opponent in Enrique Barzola, but he is the harder, more accurate striker and has the ground skills to prevent Barzola from relying on his wrestling as he usually does.
CAN’T MISS: All of it, really. UFC 211 is a special card, and you owe it to yourself to sit back on the couch and watch it from start to finish. However, if we are picking just one fight that promises wall-to-wall action, I recommend the co-main event. Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s patented blend of violence and technique is always worth watching, and Jessica Andrade promises to be one of the toughest matchups -- if not the toughest -- she has ever faced. An honorable mention goes to the main event, of course, because dos Santos-Miocic 1 was a classic battle of hard-hitting heavyweights.
SMOKE BREAK: I am loathe to recommend that you miss any fight on this fantastic card, but occasionally you will need to step out for a smoke or run to the bathroom. Though I think it will be an interesting fight, Krzysztof Jotko-David Branch may be your best bet. It is situated nicely in the middle of a loaded 14-fight card, and while both men deserve praise, the fight is poised to be more of a chess match than a brawl. I recommend you take advantage of Fox Sports 1 pacing for your extracurricular needs, but if you have to step out during a fight, Jotko-Branch is likely to be the slowest scrap on the card.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.
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