Lightweights
Alexander Hernandez (10-1) vs. Donald Cerrone (34-11): When the UFC needed some star power to load up this ESPN debut, it is not surprising that Cerrone wound up being the man to call, given that he has essentially served as the promotion’s short-notice backup plan since his debut with the company. This marks Cerrone’s long-teased return to 155 pounds, which is an interesting decision. The weight cuts were getting brutal near the end of Cerrone’s first lightweight tenure, but up at 170 pounds, “Cowboy” was having issues scaring off larger, more aggressive foes. Nearing 36 years old, this should be a solid litmus test to see if Cerrone has one more lightweight run left in him, but it will also be a big prove-it fight for Texas’ Hernandez, one of the UFC’s most impressive newcomers of 2018. Hernandez burst onto the scene with a shockingly quick knockout win over Beneil Dariush and followed it up with a strong victory over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, where he showed some well-rounded aggression over the course of three rounds. He could simply shock Cerrone with constant pressure, but this looks like a bout that will serve as a proof of concept -- at least in the short-term -- for Cerrone’s move back down in weight. Cerrone’s size advantage should allow him to take advantage of Hernandez’s aggression and either knock him out or keep him at bay, and his eternally underrated submission game should serve as a solid deterrent for Hernandez trying to take this bout to the ground. If Hernandez can pull off the win, it would be a huge feather in his cap, but the pick is Cerrone via decision. ODDS: Hernandez (-190), Cerrone (+165)Advertisement
Women’s Flyweights
Joanne Calderwood (12-3) vs. Ariane Lipski (11-3): This should be a good one. As the UFC women’s flyweight division gets off the ground, signing Lipski was a coup. The Polish-Brazilian has been making a name for herself in KSW, and as a bonus, she has lived up to her “Violence Queen” nickname. She is consistently aggressive and has some actual knockout power, the latter of which is a rarity in this weight class. However, she gets a tough first ask against Scotland’s Calderwood, who looms as a dark horse in this division, particularly since her cult favorite status could get her a bump up the promotional ladder with an impressive win here. A fellow muay Thai artist, Calderwood came up as a much-hyped prospect, but her lack of athleticism has left her in a weird spot. She is not quick enough to chase down opponents who try to stick and move, but at the same time, she also does not react all that well against foes who try to pressure her or take her down. She is at her best when her opponent makes the decision to trade, which, on the plus side, is exactly what Lipski figures to do. With that said, Lipski has more power and, if it comes down to it, can probably rely on a solid grappling game as an escape hatch, even if Calderwood is coming off a surprising submission win. Still, this could be a war and is a clear contender for “Fight of the Night” honors. The pick is Lipski via decision. ODDS: Lipski (-210), Calderwood (+175)Light Heavyweights
Alonzo Menifield (7-0) vs. Vinicius Alves Moreira (9-1): It is unclear why the UFC decided to give the ESPN shine to this bout between debuting light heavyweights, but here we are. Maybe the promotion has big hopes for Menifield. The Texan did not get the chance to show out on Season 1 of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, as he won his bout via unimpressive injury stoppage, but he made up for it in Season 2, scoring an eight-second knockout. That is basically the story. Menifield is your typical DWTNCS prospect -- a fighter who has a bunch of early finishes and thus a bunch of questions about how that translates against stronger competition. Moreira has a different twist on the same story, including coming through the ranks of the Brazilian version of DWTNCS. He moves like an iceberg but has been successful despite doing little else but wading forward, clinching with his opponent and taking them to the mat to score a submission. It has come against a weak slate of competition, including an extended run in India’s Super Fight League, but it has been effective at that level. This should be a quick fight. Either Moreira quickly gets a clinch, takedown and submission, or Menifield absolutely destroys him for trying. Menifield’s power and relative speed probably make him the smart pick, but Moreira is worth the flier. The pick is Moreira via first-round submission. ODDS: Menifield (-260), Moreira (+220)Bantamweights
Cory Sandhagen (9-1) vs. Mario Bautista (6-0): Colorado’s Sandhagen added his name to the growing list of interesting bantamweight prospects in 2018. He brought the aggression and the action in his two UFC fights, overwhelming Austin Arnett in his debut before rebounding from a nasty attempted armbar to finish Iuri Alcantara. Those performances initially earned Sandhagen a big chance against a ranked opponent, but after Thomas Almeida and John Lineker each pulled out of this spot, he was left to hold serve against the debuting Bautista. The 25-year-old Bautista just made his pro debut in May 2017, so the MMA Lab product is extremely raw, but there is already a ton to like about him. He has not faced the best competition, but he has quickly supplemented a venomous grappling attack with a sniping range game on the feet. Bautista has a solid chance at an upset here. Sandhagen can oftentimes be too aggressive for his own good, and Bautista’s wrestling skill could allow him to control the terms of this fight. With that said, Sandhagen’s relative experience and constant activity still probably carries him through here. The pick is Sandhagen via decision. ODDS: Sandhagen (-450), Bautista (+360)Last Fights » ESPN Plus Prelims
Related Articles
