Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Condit vs. Alves’

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FLYWEIGHTS

Jussier da Silva (17-3, 3-2 UFC) vs. Wilson Reis (19-5, 3-1 UFC): This is an outstanding matchup between two of the UFC’s very best grapplers. “Formiga” was once the world’s top flyweight, and while he is now riding a two-fight winning streak, losses to Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson have kept him out of the divisional elite. Reis is undefeated at flyweight in the UFC, having taken out Joby Sanchez and Scott Jorgensen since dropping to 125 pounds. Both fighters are ground specialists, but they also have excellent ancillary skills. Da Silva has heavy hands and throws excellent counter combinations, while Reis has a nice kicking game; both are surprisingly good wrestlers. This is a razor-thin fight, but I think Reis is faster, a little more active as a striker and has slightly better takedowns. The pick is Reis by decision.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Rony Mariano Bezerra (14-5, 4-2 UFC) vs. Damon Jackson (9-1, 0-1 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” winner Bezerra returns against Texas’ Jackson in a solid featherweight bout. Jackson is the former Legacy Fighting Championship titleholder and debuted on short notice against Yancy Medeiros at 155 pounds in August, when he was choked unconscious in the second round. “Jason” has shown flashes of promise, finishing three of his four UFC wins, but is 1-2 in his last three. The Brazilian can do a bit of everything, with a potent striking game, slick clinch takedowns and venomous submissions on the mat. Jackson is more of a wrestle-grappler with stifling control and a nose for gradual positional advancements that lead to the submission. This is a close fight, but I think it favors Bezerra’s counterpunching ability as the aggressive Jackson moves forward into the clinch. The pick is “Jason” by knockout in the second round.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Nicolas Dalby (13-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-4, 0-0 UFC): Nobody will be discussing this fight, which is understandable given that both fighters are making their promotional debuts, but it has the potential to be a barnburner. Dalby, a native of Denmark, is the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship welterweight champion and a polished, durable prospect, while the Brazilian “Capoeira” is the Jungle Fight titleholder. Dalby can do a bit of everything, but he is a striker by trade, with a high-output style that focuses on punch-kick combinations. He reminds me a great deal of a bigger Tarec Saffiedine. Dos Santos is likewise mostly a striker with some ancillary skills and excellent athleticism, along with the occasional spinning strike to keep his opponents honest. Dos Santos is more powerful and more dynamic, but the Dane is more consistent and throws a great deal more. The pick is Dalby by decision.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Lucas Martins (15-2, 3-2 UFC) vs. Mirsad Bektic (9-0, 2-0 UFC): This should be a fantastic matchup, as Brazilian banger Martins takes on American Top Team uber-prospect Bektic. Martins dropped his last outing to Darren Elkins, but prior to that had been on a three-fight winning streak with each victory by stoppage. Bektic took a decision from the rising Chas Skelly in his debut and then absolutely blasted Paul Redmond in January. The Brazilian is a vicious bomber who throws hard punching combinations, particularly on the counter, mixed in with the occasional kick and knee on the feet. His takedown defense has been solid throughout his UFC tenure. Bektic has drawn comparisons to Georges St. Pierre and with good reason. He is a physical specimen who blends his combination punching and takedowns beautifully, and he can do enormous damage from top position. If Elkins could get in on Martins’ hips, so can Bektic, who has a much more explosive shot and finishes with vastly greater authority. The pick is Bektic by decision, with the strong possibility of a knockout.

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS

Juliana de Lima Carneiro (7-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. Ericka Almeida (7-0, 0-0 UFC): Jungle Fight champion Almeida debuts against fellow Brazilian Carneiro in a potentially fun fight. “Ju Thai” has split her two UFC outings, dropping a decision to champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and taking a close fight from Nina Ansaroff in her return engagement. As her nickname suggests, Carneiro has a solid kickboxing arsenal that places a lot of emphasis on powerful low kicks and a hard straight right, but she spends more time wrestling and grinding in the clinch than working at range. Almeida is mostly a grappler, and a venomous one, with a lightning-quick move to the back and a nose for the submission, but she also does a good job of covering her takedown attempts and clinch entries with a hard 1-2. Almeida is quite talented, but unless she has made huge improvements, Carneiro’s superior wrestling should dictate the fight. The pick is Lima by decision.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. (11-3-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Tom Breese (7-0, 0-0 UFC): Top welterweight prospect Breese meets Dutra, who dropped his debut against Kiichi Kunimoto in January 2014, in an intriguing matchup to open the show. Breese is now training with Firas Zahabi at the Tristar Gym, which makes the elite prospect even more of a threat. He is huge for the weight class at 6-foot-3 and puts that size to good use with a long straight left and brutal left kicks, ridiculous leverage in the clinch and an unshakeable base from top position. Dutra can do a bit of everything, with solid submissions, decent wrestling and combinations that pack a little pop. This should be a showcase for Breese, who is younger, much larger, drastically superior as an athlete and more dangerous. The pick is Breese by submission in the second round.

Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.