Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Swanson vs. Lobov’

Middleweights

Thales Leites (26-7) vs. Sam Alvey (30-8): Alvey enters the cage for the sixth time in under 12 months, breaking the UFC’s record for most fights in a single year. More impressive than that is the fact that Alvey is riding a four-fight winning streak; and while his competition has been markedly less impressive than that of Leites, the potent counterpuncher has shown a few new wrinkles lately. Most notably, Alvey has been more willing to get after his opponents and throw combinations, rather than simply waiting for them to walk into his killer right hook. Despite winning just one of his last four fights, Leites is still a dangerous matchup for “Smile’n Sam.” Though his awkward, ropey strikes are dangerous, Alvey is slow on his feet and stands tall, which could give the heavy-handed Leites opportunities to land. Of course, Leites’ best skill set remains his black-belt Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Alvey defends 85 percent of the takedowns attempted on him and Leites completes only 28 percent of his attempts, but the former can be outmuscled in the clinch. Then again, Leites seems to have lost some of his muscle mass lately, and stamina has been a problem in two of his last three fights. Alvey will need to be careful in the first round, but if he can set the distance and sneak power shots through Leites’ defense, he can add a fifth notch to his four-fight streak. The pick is Alvey by third-round TKO.

Flyweights

Dustin Ortiz (16-6) vs. Brandon Moreno (13-3): Ortiz is a prime example of the dangers of the flyweight division. With only 31 men on the 125-pound roster, young prospects like Ortiz get thrown to the wolves over and over again. Ortiz is 5-4 in the UFC, but his last three losses came to Joseph Benavidez, Wilson Reis and Jussier da Silva -- two title challengers and a top contender. The same goes for Moreno, who, at just 23 years old, should have even more time to develop as a fighter. Moreno shocked the MMA world when he submitted established finisher Louis Smolka in his UFC debut and a win over the hard-hitting Ryan Benoit has established him as a fighter to watch. Now, he will have to contend with Ortiz’s fast pace and power wrestling. Moreno deserves to be called the more emphatic fighter. With nine of his 13 wins coming via submission, he is used to putting his stamp on a fight, and his kickboxing, while still a little jangly, continues to improve with every bout. Ortiz, on the other hand, has gone to a decision 12 times, with a full six of those being split verdicts. The evidence suggests a fighter who struggles to dominate his opposition, and his fights bear that out. Ortiz will press the clinch, look for scrambles and fire off quick bursts of awkward punches. Moreno’s scrappy striking and savvy submission game should be enough to get him his third straight UFC win. The thing to look out for will be his stamina, which looked suspect at times on “The Ultimate Fighter 24.” That is not surprising considering the fact that most of his finishes have come in the first round. Moreno by second-round submission is the pick.

Lightweights

Scott Holtzman (9-2) vs. Michael McBride (8-2): Holtzman has run into a few stiff tests lately, but considering the fact that he has only been fighting since 2012, “Hot Sauce” represented himself quite well in two tough style matchups with Drew Dober and Josh Emmett. A former hockey player, Holtzman fights like a well-trained goon without his skates. He excels in the clinch and with dirty boxing, and like just about every fighter from the MMA Lab, he is a capable wrestler with excellent scrambling. Dober and Emmett combined to take down Holtzman 13 times, but neither could hold him down for long; and Holtzman still managed to stuff half of their many attempts. Penetrating that takedown defense will be a priority for McBride, who has only ever won by submission. McBride is a capable offensive striker and seems to carry some pop in his hands, but he is upright and stiff on the feet, wide open defensively and relatively easy to take down or control in the clinch. McBride has a number of submissions from the bottom and a sneaky back take to set up his rear-naked choke, so Holtzman will have to watch his Ps and Qs on the floor. Holtzman’s short striking game, however, will be a big advantage against the single-minded grappler. Holtzman by second-round TKO is the pick.

Women’s Strawweights

Jessica Penne (12-4) vs. Danielle Taylor (8-2): Taylor probably did not deserve the decision against Seo Hee Ham in her last outing, but she showed encouraging signs of growth against the experienced kickboxer in just her 10th professional bout. In this matchup, it is interesting to note that Penne is the fighter who used to fight at atomweight, despite the fact that Taylor will be five inches shorter with a seven-inch reach disadvantage. Penne has far more high-level experience, having faced strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and imminent challenger Jessica Andrade in her last two fights, as well as battles with Michelle Waterson and Zoila Frausto. However, Penne’s penchant for taking punches and her long career may finally be taking their toll. Andrade swarmed and battered her to bits in her last fight, and she makes her return after a 10-month layoff. One wonders how much more punishment the 34-year-old Penne is capable of absorbing, and that is cause for concern against the hard-hitting Taylor. While Penne should absolutely be favored if this fight goes to the ground, Taylor’s method of flitting in and out of range from the outside should make takedowns difficult; and Taylor has shown some solid wrestling chops of her own. Moreover, Penne will have a hard time working her usual hip throws against such a short opponent. This one could easily go either way, but Penne’s hittability will be a more serious liability than Taylor’s inexperience on the ground. Taylor by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Bryan Barberena (12-4) vs. Joe Proctor (11-4): Barberena has two massive upsets on his resume, and neither was a fluke. He used toughness, methodical aggression and underrated craft to outsmart and outwork two superbly athletic fighters in Warlley Alves and Sage Northcutt. A similar approach --pressing forward into the clinch, countering when possible and soaking up shots when necessary --should be substantially easier to apply against a less athletic fighter like Proctor. A student of UFC vet Joe Lauzon, Proctor embodies Lauzon’s aggressive approach to both striking and submission grappling. In the realm of durability, however, Barberena’s well-padded chin takes the cake, and his deliberate but relentless approach could trouble Proctor, who does not always respond well to pressure. Proctor spent all of 2016 recovering from an undisclosed injury. As such, it is a little difficult to know what to expect from him in this contest. If nerves become a problem and the gas tank begins to fail, Barberena will snatch victory with no hesitation. The pick is Barberena by unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Alexis Davis (17-7) vs. Cindy Dandois (8-2): Dandois enters the UFC with a short but respectable list of accomplishments, highlighted by a submission win over current Invicta Fighting Championships featherweight titleholder Megan Anderson in 2015. In many ways, Dandois and Davis are similar fighters. Like Davis, Dandois is a solid positional grappler who always looks slightly uncomfortable on the feet. Technically and strategically, however, Davis is a much better kickboxer, with a snapping jab and a solid kicking game. Neither woman displays the coordination or speed representative of elite athletic talent, but Davis does a far better job of overcoming those shortcomings. Dandois has good instincts on the ground, and while Davis is likely nearing the end of her decade-long career, experience lies heavily on her side. The pick is Davis by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Hector Sandoval (13-3) vs. Matt Schnell (10-3): Schnell fell short in his UFC debut, but that loss can be easily forgiven. Schnell fought on short-notice against a larger, stronger and better seasoned Rob Font, competing at bantamweight despite winning his interim Legacy Fighting Championship title at 125 pounds. At 27 years old and with less than five years of pro experience, the best is yet to come for Schnell. Sandoval is a perfect test for the prospect, a hard-hitting bruiser with a penchant for brawls. Three times in his career Sandoval has faced elite talent -- Ulysses Gomez in his debut, Willie Gates in 2014 and Wilson Reis last year -- and each time he has not only fallen short but been outclassed. As such, he should determine whether Schnell is cut out for the top 10 or merely another member of the flyweight pack. Schnell is a fairly smooth striker, but his specialty is the ground game. With six wins by submission, Schnell has the scramble-heavy style that has a comfortable home at 125 pounds, and he is athletic enough to make long strides over a short timespan. The pick is Schnell by first-round submission.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.