Opinion: Is the UFC Stacking the Deck against Merab Dvalishvili?

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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We all know the Ultimate Fighting Championship plays favorites. The company has particular combatants it prefers to have sitting upon the thrones of their respective divisions—fighters most likely to become attractions. While popularity isn’t completely dependent upon winning a title—Donald Cerrone is a prime example—there’s no doubt that it helps. For example, Conor McGregor doesn’t become the star we know today if he doesn’t become a simultaneous two-division champion first.

The UFC isn’t above manipulating circumstances to ensure its preferred fighter ends up on top. The most obvious example in recent years was Sean O’Malley. After the organization provided O’Malley with the easiest path to success on his way up the standings, he finally proved his mettle to his doubters when he beat Petr Yan in a controversial decision. Whether one believed he was the rightful winner or not, O’Malley showed at the very least that he could hang with the best. However, the true nature of how much the UFC wanted O’Malley in the catbird seat wasn’t truly revealed until he was awarded his title shot.

O’Malley’s brutal battle with Yan took place in October 2022. Aljamain Sterling, who had previously defended his bantamweight crown on the same card, retained his title again against Henry Cejudo in May 2023. O’Malley then challenged Sterling for the championship in August 2023. That gave Sterling just over three months turnaround time, compared to 10 months for O’Malley. Any injuries from his fight with Yan would have been healed before starting his camp. That couldn’t be a guarantee for Sterling. Plus, O’Malley had the benefit of more preparation time. Regardless of whether his preparation was initially split between Cejudo and Sterling, it was still an advantage. The UFC knowingly stacked the deck against Sterling, and it resulted in his losing the title to O’Malley. It’s plausible the outcome wouldn’t have changed had their preparation been on equal footing, but equal it was not. It was an outcome that should have been expected given the circumstances.

It looks like the UFC is doing the same thing to Merab Dvalishvili, who happens to be Sterling’s teammate. A turnaround of less than four months for Dvalishvili? Check. An opponent the UFC believes has greater name value in Umar Nurmagomedov? Check. I can’t help but think the UFC has a desired outcome for this contest.

It isn’t like the UFC hasn’t been blatant about its reluctance to push Dvalishvili into the limelight. While Dvalishvili was happy to knock off names rather than fight for the title while Sterling was champion, he should have had first dibs after O’Malley claimed the belt. Dvalishvili was coming off a fight in which he utterly dominated Yan and extended his winning streak to nine fights, exceeding O’Malley’s streak of six consecutive bouts without a loss. Despite having an obvious and clear-cut No. 1 contender, the UFC instead granted O’Malley the gift of avenging his lone career defeat against Marlon Vera—someone who was one fight removed from a lopsided loss to Cory Sandhagen. In the meantime, Dvalishvili was required to defeat Cejudo, someone with whom Sterling had engaged in a nip-tuck battle. Dvalishvili succeeded and eventually got his title shot, but it shouldn’t have taken so long. After 10 wins, the UFC had to give in and grant him his crack at gold.

Given that it was clear the UFC didn’t want Dvalishvili to be champion in the first place, it’s only natural that it would like to get the belt off of him as quickly as possible; and while Nurmagomedov hasn’t proven to be a major draw, he is a Nurmagomedov. Given the success of younger brother Usman Nurmagomedov and cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov, the Nurmagomedov name has eclipsed all other names in terms of modern relevancy. It used to be that a promotion could plug in a Gracie at the top of a card and people would tune in. The Nurmagomedov name is beginning to carry the same cache. Imagine how much more their aura can grow if another Nurmagomedov claims a belt.

It isn’t as if the UFC needs Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov to headline the UFC 311, either. Islam Makhachev defends his lightweight title against Arman Tsarukyan in the main event. As it presently sits, Makhachev appears to be one of the more marketable champions on the roster, making a second title bout less necessary for his cards than it would be for other champions. I get that it’s convenient for the Makhachev-Nurmagomedov camp to have both fighters on the same card, but that’s another point in the UFC showing Nurmagomedov favoritism.

If anything, I would think it’s wise for the UFC to hold off on putting them on the same card. Two title fights are scheduled for UFC 312, as well. Nothing is booked atop UFC 313, and there isn’t an obvious candidate to headline it. Belal Muhammad is the champion who has gone the longest without a fight, but given that he had to pull out of UFC 310 with a severe toe infection, it’s fair to say he likely won’t be ready to be back in the cage by March 8. Even if Muhammad does beat those odds, Shavkat Rakhmonov, his likely opponent, probably won’t be available since he fought at UFC 310. After that, it would be Valentina Shevchenko, and she has never headlined a pay-per-view as a defending champion. Does anyone believe the UFC is about to start now? Are we really expecting Alex Pereira to step in once again?

I understand the primary argument for why the UFC wouldn’t wait until March. Nurmagomedov is a Muslim, and Ramadan—a time when Muslims fast from sunrise to sundown—is during the month of March this year. However, several practicing Muslims have fought during Ramadan, including Muhammad just two years ago against Vicente Luque. In other words, the UFC isn’t above putting its business ahead of a fighter being in optimal shape. Maybe the UFC is coming around to being sensitive to religious practices, but the precedent has already been set. Without an outright statement of wanting to be sensitive in that nature, it’s hard to say the UFC isn’t overtly tilting the scales against Dvalishvili, and the only reason for the company to do so is if it believes Nurmagomedov as champion is in its best interest.