Preview: UFC Fight Night 242 ‘Burns vs. Brady’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns from a rare off week and settles in with UFC Fight Night 242—a strong show, per UFC Apex standards—on Saturday in Las Vegas. The top two bouts should help answer some questions about the title pictures in their respective divisions. The main event sees Gilbert Burns take on Sean Brady in a well-matched welterweight affair, while top women’s flyweight prospect Natalia Silva looks to announce herself as a contender with a win over former 115-pound champion Jessica Andrade in the co-headliner. Beyond that, opponents are matched strongly in terms of action potential. Steve Garcia looks to spark a potential war against Kyle Nelson, Matt Schnell attempts to counter the aggression of Cody Durden and the always-entertaining Trevor Peek figures to thrill the masses in his latest assignment against Yanal Ashmoz.

Now to the UFC Fight Night 242 “Burns vs. Brady” preview:

Welterweights

#6 WW | Gilbert Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) vs. #8 WW | Sean Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC)

ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)

Brady gets his second breakthrough opportunity here in a fascinating crossroads fight. Brady made his UFC debut in 2019 as the type of prospect who had little left to prove on the regional level. A wrestler by trade, the Philadelphian showed off a complete game in outworking and outlasting his opposition, so it wasn’t necessarily a shock that Brady quickly worked his way up the welterweight ladder. First came workmanlike wins over Court McGee and Ismail Naurdiev, then dominant submission victories over Christian Aguilera and Jake Matthews to put him in the UFC’s rankings. Brady’s first fight as a ranked welterweight, a 2021 decision win over Michael Chiesa, was the first sign that he might get stuck in his current plateau. It was legitimately impressive that Brady managed to establish himself as the stronger fighter in wrestling and clinch exchanges, but he tired late and his striking looked like a liability throughout the encounter. That all came to roost a year later, when Brady suffered his first professional defeat in one-sided fashion against Belal Muhammad. It’s a result that has aged well with Muhammad’s ascendency to the welterweight title, but it still seemed concerning that Brady couldn’t find much success with his wrestling before getting finished by someone who has rarely been a knockout threat. The ensuing two years have seen Brady constantly sidelined with injuries, though the good news is that his one performance in the time since was quite impressive. Kelvin Gastelum has his flaws but rarely gets outwrestled, and Brady dominated him before finding a third-round submission. After another injury layoff, he is finally set to make his return against Burns in what could either be a tough matchup or an instance of Brady meeting a fading veteran at just the right time.

Beyond being Brady’s opponent, Burns can also serve as a reason for hope for the American prospect. Burns is a formerly one-dimensional grappler who eventually developed an effective striking game. Burns’ first few years under the UFC banner were a bit frustrating. He was an obvious talent and showed some excellent flashes on the mat, but he didn’t have the level of wrestling needed to set his best tools up and also looked uncomfortable on the feet. Burns seemed to have plateaued by 2019, when a decision to take a late-notice fight against Alexey Kunchenko changed the course of his career. “Durinho” moved up from being a career lightweight to take the fight at 170 pounds, and that move unlocked a ton of physical potential, with Burns showing off a much-improved gas tank while also becoming a more effective bully. It also allowed him to step in on late notice thanks to the lack of an additional weight cut, and a breakneck schedule meant that Burns was welterweight champion Kamaru Usman’s top challenger within nine months, though the pandemic would wind up delaying his title shot for a bit longer. After losing to Usman in a fun back-and-forth affair, Burns’ career has felt a bit stuck, with him clearly among the top handful of welterweights in the UFC but without having much momentum. A 2022 loss to Khamzat Chimaev was an absolute barnburner that did little to hurt Burns’ stock, but after taking the rest of the year off to recover from that fight, he might have run himself into the ground in 2023. Burns kicked off the year by running through Neil Magny but took a fairly quick turnaround against Jorge Masvidal and put in a fairly flat performance in a win before then turning around to take on Muhammad in a fight where he accomplished little even before injuring himself early in the fight. Burns once again took some time off to recover but suffered a disheartening loss to Jack Della Maddalena upon his return. He did well with a wrestling-heavy approach, only for Della Maddalena to turn things around and score a third-round finish. That result probably closes the championship window for Burns as a 38-year-old in a division with a rising wave of younger talent, but there’s still a solid shot that he can keep serving as gatekeeper for the divisional elite in fights like this. These two figure to lock horns in close quarters early on, and it wouldn’t be a shock if Brady is able to find some early success as a stronger wrestler. However, given that a submission is unlikely, it’s unclear exactly how long the American can keep up. He has tired against opponents capable of making him work hard in wrestling exchanges, and while Burns can still be uncomfortable on the feet at times, the Brazilian still figures to be the more effective striker whenever Brady can’t get this fight to the mat. Burns still might tire over the long haul, but the bet is that he can keep his gas tank fuller than Brady’s over five rounds. Add in that there’s a chance he can stifle Brady’s wrestling and grappling outright, and the call is that the veteran isn’t done quite yet. The pick is Burns via decision.

Jump To »
Burns vs. Brady
Silva vs. Andrade
Garcia vs. Nelson
Schnell vs. Durden
Peek vs. Ashmoz
Rong vs. Padilla
The Prelims