Prime Picks: UFC 302 ‘Makhachev vs. Poirier’

Order Now! UFC 302 “Makhachev vs. Poirier” Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

The Ultimate Fighting Championship stamps its feet in New Jersey with a fight card that brings some shine and sizzle to the start of June. Eight of the 12 bouts on the bill see one fighter favored above -250, resulting in complicated assessments and deeper dives than usual. If one knows where to look, big money can still be made on the main card, giving bettors some personal stakes during the marquee matchups. Join the UFC 302 edition of Prime Picks as we gently pitch one of the biggest upsets of the year, celebrate that the UFC chose violence in several pairings and get rude when it comes to “Rude Boy.”

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Kevin Holland-Michal Oleksiejczuk Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-190)

Four of the five tilts on the main card see a favored fighter coming in with odds above -250, making outright picks unpalatable. Typically, the “Straight-Up Cash” segment touches on a favored fighter with some value on their line relative to their expected performance. It does few onlookers any good to suggest a -650 moneyline will do the trick on Saturday, especially when there are clear and realistic ways the favorite could crash and burn. Ticking through that pay-per-view portion of the event, we drill down to the “featured fight of the night” slot, where Holland moves back up to middleweight to face an ex-light heavyweight in Oleksiejczuk. Given the two styles and their approaches, this one will not likely hear the final bell, making this under a prime candidate for pursuit.

The last five appearances for Oleksiejczuk have all concluded before the eight-minute mark, win or lose. Of the 29-year-old Pole’s 15 finishes, every one took place before this under of 12:30. On the flipside, the lone decision loss for “Hussar” came against Dustin Jacoby, while his remaining six defeats also hit that under threshold. Whether he gets his hand raised or not, Oleksiejczuk tends to storm out of the gates, which often works to his advantage.

While four of the last five outings for Holland have surpassed the betting period pitched atop the segment, an increased level of competition is a definitive reason for those outcomes. Typically, as fighters move up the rankings, the tougher opposition gets harder to put away. Concerning Oleksiejczuk, he has not cemented himself among the elite of the elites. Instead, he is in the category of an “action fighter” who will pick up post-fight bonuses every so often with dramatic results. Holland’s seven-inch reach advantage can give him the edge he needs, whether to potshot the Polish man with distance strikes or latch onto a brabo choke. Oleksiejczuk can also get inside quickly and bullrush opponents with sheer power, making this a dangerous encounter for both men. All that matters is that it ends before the midpoint of the third frame, and the rest is gravy.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Randy Brown (-175)

Rumors of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos’ demise are greatly exaggerated. The 37-year-old whirling dervish from Brazil has not significantly diminished despite a drug test failure for a tainted supplement and his advanced age. “Capoeira” nearly finished the job against Rinat Fakhretdinov in November, coming back from a two-round deficit thanks to a ferocious body shot that allowed him to reach a draw. His kicks are as dangerous as ever, and this current landscape may prove favorable toward aging powerhouses finding unexpected fountains of youth. Brown can put anyone away with his heavy blows, but this close one merits a pass on the favored man. If anything, the comeback on Zaleski dos Santos at +145 could be worth a look.

Regarding the “action fighter” territory discussed earlier, Brown may be among the kings of that welterweight class. Unable to quite get over the hump into Top 15 territory, “Rude Boy” will put on a show and is willing to fight recklessly to his detriment for a more thrilling outcome. Brown has repeatedly stuck his head in the proverbial lion’s mouth, with gunslinging affairs against Niko Price and Vicente Luque that resulted in his being deprived of his consciousness. The Jamaican measures taller and longer in the arms by four to five inches, and he can use it well but does not always capitalize on these gifts. Zaleski dos Santos can crash the pocket, but his legs make up for some of the difference as he lets them fly to all targets. Brown may yet get his hand raised, but he will likely have to go through fire to get there. This makes him a bit too risky of a proposition in the scheme of things.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Dustin Poirier (+425)

Many analyzing this fight expect it will play out very similarly to when Khabib Nurmagomedov ran roughshod over Poirier on his way to a submission win. How could they not? Islam Makhachev possesses an extremely similar skill set, with slight deviations due to his style and tricks. This strategy has proved to work against Poirier, who can be suffocated on the mat, especially if he decides to “jump the gilly” and put himself on the mat, unable to get up for the remainder of the round. Why is Poirier, the biggest underdog on the billing, primed for a massive upset? This is partly due to the massive discrepancy on the line—Nurmagomedov (-450) was not even as heavily favored—and also because of the danger Poirier presents on the feet for as long as it stays there.

Makhachev may have surpassed Nurmagomedov, his best friend and mentor, with his standup prowess, and his most recent performance against Alexander Volkanovski was the culmination of everything he developed to that point. Punting the Aussie in about three minutes is an all-time great knockout, and it is one he set up perfectly rather than scoring a “lucky kick.” Makhachev is an extremely cerebral fighter who will not simply switch up his game plan when things do not go his way. Some competitors may not lean on their excellent grappling, for example, until getting their bell rung and using it as a safety valve. The American Kickboxing Academy standout takes advantage of openings and smartly exploits fighters to even beat them at their own game in a similar vein to Jon Jones.

Where Poirier can prevail, other than hitting a desperate third-round guillotine, a la when he nearly trapped Nurmagomedov, is if Makhachev is overconfident on the feet. If this turns into a striking match, with Makhachev trying to prove something rather than taking the path of least resistance, Poirier’s chances of a stunning victory go through the roof.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Makhachev-Poirier Lasts Under 4.5 Rounds (-475)

Sean Strickland-Paulo Costa Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-385)

Jailton Almeida-Alexander Romanov Ends Inside Distance (-350)

Total Odds: -104

When it comes to the three-leg option for UFC 302, it is all about time. The initial theme was going to imply stoppages, but some of these betting lines are practically valueless. Some fighters set around -275 may have instilled bettor confidence to a degree, but is it a foregone conclusion that Holland will style on Oleksiejczuk? The accumulator always brings a modicum of risk, as it depends on three outcomes to all strike at once, and MMA is a volatile sport where anything can happen. Rather than trying to point to a winner in any of these three bouts, instead suggesting how long or short they will last is the way to go here. In this case, the main event should not hear the final bell. If Poirier wins, the likelihood of him pulling off a Leon Edwards-style decision win with his deficiencies is quite low. On the other hand, would it boggle the mind if Poirier busted Makhachev in the chops and finished him in the first round?

Strickland may not be prohibitively favored as he comes in around -260 at the time, but he is by no means a lock in this co-main attraction. A record of 3-3 in the last two years, even with a championship on his mantle, is only troubling because of the context. The three men who beat him recently were all power strikers: Alex Pereira, Jared Cannonier and Dricus Du Plessis. In more than one of those outings, the slugger standing across from “Tarzan” waded through jabs to unload heavier blows, doing enough to sway two of three judges in their favor. All the while, the stoppage rates for the two top middleweights have plummeted, which makes this striker’s delight one that could last long and have dazzling significant strike tallies when the dust settles.

The starter piece of the UFC 302 parlay puzzle is between heavyweights. Even though the finish rate for big men in the Octagon has recently dropped, Almeida and Romanov should clash and result in something destructive. The Brazilian’s lone decision victory came over Derrick Lewis in a rough performance. In contrast, Romanov’s two decisions resulted from uncommon durability (Blagoy Ivanov) or an unfortunate foul (Juan Espino). Whether Almeida or Romanov can employ dominant grappling, the only thing that matters is that one will likely get the other out of there before the final horn.