Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 209 ‘Gane vs. Tuivasa’

C’est la temps de Paris pour l’Ultimate Fighting Championship. For the first time ever, the promotion on Saturday plants its flag in France, with a Euro-heavy UFC Fight Night offering that features several Frenchman who are almost all betting favorites. With some lopsided lines and others as virtual pick’ems, perhaps the best way to navigate this French sea of betting options is through narrow means. Four prop bets will hold up this UFC Fight Night 209 edition of Prime Picks: a shocker in the headliner that makes total sense, a former champion with a favorable matchup, a veritable middleweight firefight that promises violence and a short-notice opponent swap that should provide a fun finish.

Tai Tuivasa Wins by KO/TKO (+545)

Heavyweights rarely see lopsided betting odds when it comes to the Octagon, as they operate in the quintessential “anything can happen” division. Put two men upwards of 250 pounds against one another, and one shot, even in the later rounds, can end the fight. Derrick Lewis—the man over whom both Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane hold their most recent wins—is the most prevalent example, but he is just one of many. Gane, a former interim champion, comes in at staggering -600 odds, possibly due to his masterful control of distance, his elusiveness or perhaps because he is fighting on home soil. Of the roughly 20 heavyweight matches to see betting odds of this magnitude, around a quarter of them have resulted in an upset. Tuivasa unquestionably possesses the ability to turn the tide in an instant, and at massive plus money for his most likely outcome, it is worth a flier.

The smarter money might be locating an alternative prop bet for the favored Gane, depending on if one expects him to win a decision (+215) or anticipates the perceived likelier outcome of his getting a stoppage of some form by night’s end (-140). If it reaches the later rounds, where Tuivasa has expended his energy reserves and taken ample body shots while trying to work his way in, Gane could win the battle of attrition. This could also be the showcase performance for the Frenchman to prove he has shored up his wrestling credentials since his disheartening defeat to Francis Ngannou. Tuivasa tends to follow the Lewis playbook of simply muscling out of bad situations on the ground, and a technician like Gane could snag an arm or leg during a scramble to force the Aussie to say “matté.”

Tuivasa will undoubtedly need to approach this five-rounder like the floor is lava, getting off the mat as fast as possible while not allowing his gas tank get sapped by prolonged ground exchanges. He will also have to thread a needle by staying off the fence, both in the clinch or with the cage as his back, and closing the distance enough to strike but not enough to get caught with a sharp elbow. Gane has exclusively faced orthodox fighters since he debuted in the UFC, with Tuivasa serving as his first southpaw; that could throw a wrench in Gane’s timing. Tuivasa cannot allow himself to be snake-charmed like the Lewises and Rozenstruiks on Gane’s ledger, and he has to garner Frenchman’s respect early. As the taller, longer fighter, Gane can stay fleet of foot and cruise to avoid some of Tuivasa’s more reckless lunging strikes, but he also cannot make a mistake in the first half of the fight, or he will wake up staring at the lights in front of a crestfallen home crowd. This leveled-up version of Tuivasa possesses the tools to get the knockout and do what even Ngannou or Lewis could not, but it will be an uphill battle until he lands the integral blow.

Robert Whittaker Wins by Decision (+105)

To say Whittaker has outperformed expectations since he relocated to middleweight in 2014 would be a massive understatement, as the only man to beat him along the way is Israel Adesanya; and their second fight was close enough that Whittaker earned the nod on multiple media scorecards. To be the No. 2 to Adesanya is nothing to be embarrassed about, especially when you are arguably head and shoulders above the rest of the pack at 185 pounds. Not the largest individual in the division by any stretch, Whittaker brings with him speed and technique that more than compensates for his lack of size. “Bobby Knuckles” possesses the ability to make even the most vaunted striker or grappler in the division look sluggish, and his pairing with Marvin Vettori has all the makings of a co-main event where Whittaker styles on his opponent for three rounds.

While Whittaker is definitely hittable, he does not have nearly as much worry with Vettori’s striking as he would with an opponent like Adesanya or Jared Cannonier. The Italian is a bruiser who would very much like to drag the fight to the mat as soon as possible, but he is not averse to a slugfest. Neither of those skillsets have proved to be particularly effective against Whittaker, who does not wildly brawl and is not susceptible to chain wrestling by more powerful foes. Vettori prefers a club-and-sub style of bludgeoning his opponents until they surrender something, but this has not worked against the upper echelon of his division; only two finishes in his eight UFC wins indicate that he cannot quite get over the hump of putting tougher adversaries away. On the other hand, Vettori has faced harder hitters and superior submission specialists, making it to the bell even when he loses. Whittaker should be one step ahead for much of the 15-minute affair, but he is not likely to become the first man to stop Vettori inside the distance.

Nassourdine Imavov-Joaquin Buckley Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)

In terms of divisional relevance, this preliminary middleweight matchup between Imavov and Buckley may be the most significant bout below the main and co-main events. France’s Imavov has finally found his footing in the division, with a pair of second-round knockouts of Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan. Buckley meets him in a battle that could result in a spot in the Top 10 for the victor, and “New Mansa” will not shy away from doling out violence. Albeit with a smaller sample size, Imavov is more active and a significantly more accurate striker, but Buckley has notched six knockdowns across his seven UFC outings. The smart way to take care of Buckley would be to try to put him on his back, but Imavov may look to put on a show and throw caution to the wind in front of the home fans.

Across their 20 combined stoppages, only one has taken place beyond 2:30 of the third round, and both men celebrate solid finish rates of 73% or higher. Even with Imavov sporting a significant height advantage, Buckley will be longer in the arms and can use his range exceptionally well through his kicking arsenal. Knowing that Buckley might try to use this opportunity to make a statement—in hostile territory against a Top 15 middleweight—Imavov would be wise to close the distance quickly, thereby taking away perhaps the American’s most dangerous weapons. The MMA Factory product can work effectively in the clinch, slashing away with nasty elbows that leave a lasting impression when they slice people open or exact some other damage. It should be a thrilling contest for as long as it lasts, but it will not likely be one to hear the final bell.

Stephanie Egger Wins Inside Distance (+115)

After some reshuffling, the event will open with a women’s featherweight contest between Egger and debuting Argentinian wrestler Ailin Perez. The newcomer Perez drew the short straw in this matchup, solely because of the stylistic clash that comes together. Perez replaces Zarah Fairn dos Santos, and the former flyweight returns to 145 pounds after a one-off at that weight class in 2021. Perez will likely find MMA debutant Geyse Yasmin is a far cry from Sweden’s Egger, who is quite proficient when the fight hits the mat. Whether via submission or by an unending barrage of punches, Egger winning the fight by stoppage at plus money is a solid bet.

Perez’s gameplan is simple yet effective, with her only career defeat a disqualification after she threw knees at a grounded opponent. She excels at clubbing outmatched opponents—she holds just one victory over women who had a winning record at the time she faced them—by wrenching them to the mat and pounding away. This approach will fall right into Egger’s hands, as she would like nothing more than for “Fiona” to recklessly tackle her to the mat, leave a limb exposed and get tapped out. The lone decision win for Egger came against the unfinishable Reina Miura, who used to clock in at 155 pounds or above; Egger should not have as tough of a time maneuvering her way around Perez. It should not take long for Egger to find that she can push her weight around, figuratively and literally, and find an opportune moment to procure a stoppage.