Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 59 ‘Namajunas vs. Cortez’

It is an admittedly tough ask for fight fans to tune into the Ultimate Fighting Championship show on Saturday in Denver, where only three ranked fighters are placed in the lineup, two of them in the main event. A plethora of bouts fell through, making this patchwork billing one that is held together by duct tape and a few prayers. Join the UFC on ESPN 59 edition of Prime Picks, as we expect a former champ will reign supreme, anticipate all-out violence in a main card tilt and throw down on two head-scratching pick-’ems.

Rose Namajunas Wins and Over 2.5 Rounds (-165)

Any lingering doubts about whether the former 115-pound queen could hang at flyweight were dissolved in March, when “Thug Rose” established herself at her new weight class by outclassing Amanda Ribas. While Ribas jumps back and forth between divisions, Namajunas’ unsuccessful showing against Manon Fiorot sowed the seeds of what was to come. Still just 32 years of age and with less than 20 pro bouts on her ledger, Namajunas appears to have gotten over the hurdle of potential retirement over the last few months. The one-shot ability may not be with her, as she will not be a huge 125-pound fighter in the cage, but Tracy Cortez is the right replacement option for Namajunas to keep climbing.

Cortez may be one of the least dangerous fighters from the standpoint of a single punctuating blow or move. All five of the Arizona native’s walks to the UFC cage have ended in the hands of the judges, although she has won them all. Cortez has moved up logically through the division, albeit at a snail’s pace, averaging only one fight per year since signing with the league in 2019. This low activity level has hindered her from emerging as a force to be considered, not to mention her struggle making weight; Cortez has competed at 125 pounds just three times in UFC thus far. A nailbiter over Jasmine Jasudavicius did not inspire a great deal of confidence, either, and she may be surprised at the versatility of her opponent.

While Cortez has not displayed any venom in her attacks or quick-strike submission prowess since reaching the highest level in the sport, Namajunas has done so frequently. Crisp boxing allowed her to crush Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and a picture-perfect head kick against Weili Zhang will stay on the UFC’s highlight package for years. With that said, “Thug Rose” made her way to the stage thanks to her submission savvy and high in-cage IQ. A flying armbar win over a decade ago holds little water in how she performs now, but Namajunas remains unafraid to try risky techniques if she finds herself in a difficult position. Considering Cortez arrived in the Mile High City less than two weeks before their five-round clash, it is an open question as to whether or not she can handle 25 minutes at such a high elevation against a spirited former champion. Namajunas may not be able to get it done early due to Cortez’s durability. However, if Cortez flags while the locally trained Namajunas cruises, a late stoppage is not out of the realm of possibility.

Drew Dober-Jean Silva Does Not Start Round 3 (-165)

When Mike Davis suffered an arm injury, it was a question for quite some time whether Dober would remain on the lineup for this event. The 35-year-old, who trains out of Aurora, Colorado, was dead set on competing in Denver, and he lucked out when a recently victorious featherweight in Silva stepped up. Silva made the most of his sophomore appearance in the UFC at the tail end of June by crushing Charles Jourdain—a special feat considering no one had ever stopped “Air” Jourdain with strikes before he did. Silva will likely be the smaller fighter in the cage as he moves up 10 pounds, but he will have to cut less weight on this late notice. It remains to be seen if his power carries up with him, but if it does not, Dober, once in sole possession of the UFC lightweight division’s all-time knockout record, will feast.

Brazil’s Silva relishes a slugfest, and half of his knockouts as a pro are of the clean variety, with the assigned referee stepping in because his fallen foe could no longer intelligently defend himself. The brick-fisted Dober has a similar penchant for the KO, removing all doubt of a possible comeback by simply depriving an adversary of his consciousness or breaking his liver with a ruthless left hook that would make Bas Rutten proud. Silva is riding a 10-fight winning streak, with all but one of his fights ending inside the distance. On the other side of the Octagon, Dober has seen eight of his last 10 end via stoppage, but he has reached the third round in four of those 10 outings. Count on Silva to be a willing opponent ready to trade leather with the gunslinging Dober, and no matter who comes out intact, it will likely go down before 10 minutes have elapsed.

Jasmine Jasudavicius (-110)

In a normal roster-signing situation, the debuting Fatima Kline—a solid prospect coming up from the ranks of Invicta Fighting Championships and Cage Fury Fighting Championships—would be able to have a full training camp to get ready for her first foray under the brightest lights in the sport. Kline has acquitted herself well in the two feeder leagues, winning both the CFFC flyweight and strawweight straps on her way up. Unfortunately for her, she will be welcomed to the promotion by Jasudavicius, a woman who can bully the smaller Kline and put her in situations she has not experienced before.

Kline was initially snagged to appear on this year’s season of Dana White’s Contender Series, and she was given an excellent test in the once-beaten Brazilian Alexia Thainara. As the sport turns, so do matchups, which come and go like the tides. In steps Kline for Viviane Araujo, who will be considerably younger than the 35-year-old Canadian. While youthful exuberance will be on the side of “The Archangel,” she might find an opponent who puts her on the back foot early and often. While Kline can stay strong in the later rounds, cardio is different when pushing the pace versus fighting backward. If Jasudavicius can pressure Kline and never let her get into her rhythm, she can use her size and underrated wrestling to take the wind out of the unbeaten woman’s sails.

Andre Petroski (-110)

There is no noteworthy plus money on the table for this shaky card. Due to several fight shakeups, late-notice variables and other uneasiness, the options for upsets are not enticing. Muslim Salikhov (+150) could surprise the chinny Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Julian Erosa (+180) is one unexpected explosion away from a highlight-reel finish. Otherwise, another pick-’em draws the attention, this time in the chaotic middleweight division. Petroski and Josh Fremd are coming into this affair—at least on fight week—at even money against one another, and that line might be a bit off given their relative successes in the Octagon.

Both men enter into this preliminary clash with knockout losses in relatively recent memory. For the selected Petroski, he has dropped his last two, albeit to the surging Michel Pereira and deceptively powerful Jacob Malkoun. In the latter, Petroski dropped the first round and came out ready to stop Malkoun’s grappling, only to potentially knock himself silly by crashing face-first into the Aussie’s hip before getting blasted by a rib-crushing soccer kick. The bread-and-butter wrestle-heavy approach leading into chained submissions had gotten Petroski far before this skid, and Fremd’s takedown defense is not particularly stout. If Fremd had more stopping power in his hands, this could pose some risk until Petroski gets the fight where he wants it. However, once the veteran of Season 29 of “The Ultimate Fighter” gets his hands on Fremd, it may be a matter of when, not if.