Preview: UFC 305 ‘Du Plessis vs. Adesanya’

Flyweights

#7 FLW | Steve Erceg (12-2, 3-1 UFC) vs. #4 FLW | Kai Kara-France (24-11, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Erceg (-166), Kara-France (+140)

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

Two flyweight contenders pair off for Anzac bragging rights in this co-headliner. In an alternate universe, Erceg is defending his flyweight title here in his hometown, since the Perth native came surprisingly close to unseating Alexandre Pantoja in May. It has been a charmed year and change for “Astro Boy” under the UFC banner. He was Australia’s top prospect at 125 pounds when the promotion picked him up but didn’t have particularly high expectations as a seemingly unathletic grappler. Erceg was initially matched accordingly, but after his opponent fell through and a late replacement was needed elsewhere, he stepped in for an immediate shot at the rankings against David Dvorak. After handily winning a decision over Dvorak—he showed a newly improved striking game in the process—Erceg rode an ugly win over Alessandro Costa and a knockout of Matt Schnell to a shocking title shot. It was, as is common in the UFC nowadays, an opportunity born of convenience. The UFC needed a Brazilian champion to headline a card in Brazil, and Pantoja was the only one available. Erceg made for the freshest matchup of those able to make the date. But for being plucked from relative obscurity, Erceg gave Pantoja a particularly tough title challenge, continuing to show himself as a sharp striker while also pivoting back to his wrestling and grappling. However, it was an ill-advised late takedown attempt that eventually cost Erceg the fight on the scorecards. Erceg has raised his stock in the process, and the fight was close enough that a rematch is still on the table if the Australian can rack up a few wins. First, he needs to rebound against New Zealand’s Kara-France.

The UFC signed a few fighters off the all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2016, but surprisingly passed over Kara-France. He might not have been the best prospect of the batch, but his rare level of knockout power at 125 pounds figured to make him worth the flier. At any rate, the Kiwi eventually fought his way to a UFC contract in 2018 and immediately proved his action bona fides. His wins were closer than they needed to be at times, but he put on some exciting fights while establishing himself just outside of the title picture. After losing a fun sprint to Brandon Royval to cap off 2020, Kara-France seemingly hit a new gear as everything clicked into place. His ancillary skills, particularly his defensive wrestling, were no longer clear liabilities, and that coincides with Kara-France rediscovering his knockout form, going from power puncher to finishing threat. As a result, Kara-France has proven he can hang among the UFC’s flyweight elite, even if he hasn’t gotten that true breakthrough win. Brandon Moreno staged a comeback in an interim title fight that Kara-France was doing well in, and his most recent loss to Amir Albazi was a nip-tuck affair that saw him pick up steam as the fight went on. Erceg does seem to have the ability to dictate the terms of this fight, which earns him the nod. He’s the much crisper fighter from range against the stockier Kara-France, and Erceg figures to be the stronger wrestler even with his opponent’s recent improvements. It will be hard to entirely count Kara-France out at any point in this fight. Erceg might be durable, but he's hittable and hasn’t faced someone with Kara-France’s outlier power. The pick is Erceg via decision.

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Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Erceg vs. Kara-France
Gamrot vs. Hooker
Rozenstruik vs. Tuivasa
Prates vs. Li
The Prelims