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Welterweights

Vicente Luque (16-6-1) vs. Mike Perry (13-4)

ODDS: Luque (-210), Perry (+175)

Owing to inactivity at the top of the division and a ton of rising talent, the UFC’s welterweight scene has turned into a logjam over the last few years, with Luque among the fighters most hurt by how things have -- or have not -- shaken out. Not much was expected of Luque coming off Season 21 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” particularly after he lost his UFC debut to Michael Graves, but since then, “The Silent Assassin” has done all that could be asked of him, winning nine of his last 10 fights, all via finish, including a “Fight of the Year” contender against Bryan Barberena in February. Still, getting the right matchup to finally put Luque over the top as a true contender has been a frustrating process. Feeding Luque a debuting natural lightweight in Jalin Turner at the tail end of 2018 was a bizarre choice, but the Barberena war looked to set up Luque for a big fight against Neil Magny in Rochester, New York, in May. However, Magny was pulled due to a failed drug test and Luque was forced to once again win a high-risk no-reward bout, this time against the debuting Derrick Krantz. Luque’s Chilean and Brazilian heritage made him a natural fit for Uruguay, and while he does not get a ranked opponent, he at least gets a featured spot against a notable name in Perry.

Perry provides an interesting contrast to his welterweight counterparts. While fighters like Luque have struggled to earn opportunities to break through, Perry has gotten shot after shot. It is easy to see why the UFC would put its promotional weight towards moving Perry up the ladder since, if nothing else, he sticks out as a personality. Given that he is essentially the human embodiment of his home state of Florida, it is firmly a for-better-or-for-worse situation, as for every entertaining quote or pearl of wisdom, there is something like his dressing up like a Native American on social media in order to build a fight with Donald Cerrone. As far as inside the cage goes, when Perry made his debut as a raw prospect, his style was impressively pared down to focus on his strengths. Armed with little more than his knockout power and a strong chin, Perry was content to march down opponents and win via attrition. However, that style soon found its ceiling. Opponents like Alan Jouban, Santiago Ponzinibbio and even Max Griffin managed to find success by staying patient and forcing Perry to chase, picking him apart and frustrating him on their way to decision wins. Perry’s attempts to evolve have made for an odd last few months. A move to Jackson-Wink MMA did not seem to work out for anyone, as Perry was far too patient in the Cerrone fight and misguidedly attempted to take it to the mat, at which point “Cowboy” had little trouble netting a submission. Back in Florida for his last bout against Alex Oliveira, Perry showed that, if nothing else, few can match him in terms of winning a battle of swagger and machismo, as he matched the Brazilian punch for punch in winning an all-out brawl. Now entering what should be his prime, “Platinum Mike” probably will not top out as much more than an elite action fighter, but that still does not mean that the UFC is not going to give him prominent opportunities like this one.

While Perry’s style lacks much in the way of nuance, he still should provide a quite difficult test for Luque. Perry is going to keep stalking forward to incite a brawl, and while Luque has shown some patience in spots, he seems like just the type of fighter who is willing to match the Floridian on his own terms and attempt to win via attrition. Luque has a lot more in the way of skills and tools, but at the end of the day, this is a fight between two men who constantly seek the finish, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against someone as persistent and durable as Perry. The Barberena fight seems particularly instructive, and that may not be the best news for Luque. While he showed improvement in terms of his gas tank and proved that he has the ability to survive and come back from adversity, that was also a back-and-forth fight that saw Barberena use his own aggression to take advantage of Luque’s lack of defense and hit some big shots. Luque might not have that margin for error against someone who hits as hard as Perry. Luque would probably be the best win on Perry’s resume, so there is a decent chance he drops this one. As unbreakable as Perry’s chin has appeared, Luque has as good a chance as any to finally crack it, and if “Platinum Mike” approaches this bout in particularly dumb fashion, he could easily find himself falling victim to the Brazilian’s slick submission game. Perry has looked to be a strong enough clinch fighter that he can probably choose to keep things standing -- unless he decides to repeat his mistakes from the Cerrone fight -- and if these two are going to throw down, he looks like the more durable fighter and just as hard a hitter. Luque will likely excel if he chooses to fight against type, but the pick is Perry via second-round knockout.

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