Preview: UFC Fight Night 234 ‘Ankalaev vs. Walker 2’

Flyweights

#6 FLW | Manel Kape (19-6, 4-2 UFC) vs. #5 FLW | Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, 7-2 UFC)

ODDS: Kape (-250), Nicolau (+205)

Just like the main event, this co-headliner between Nicolau and Kape is a rematch of a recent fight, but this one remains intriguing after a narrow win for the Brazilian in 2021. That was quite a disappointing loss for Kape, who had debuted with the UFC just a month earlier with a ton of hype. Kape had his moments of inconsistency during a decorated run in Japan but showed off his wares as an explosive knockout artist and seemed ready to make an impact stateside. However, decision losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Nicolau showed that while Kape could afford to pick his spots on the Japanese scene, UFC-level opponents made him look overly patient as he waited for counters and coasted to two frustrating defeats. Kape has slowly turned the corner into becoming a more consistent and aggressive fighter, which has paid plenty of dividends given his physical gifts. While most fights are not like his last one—a barnburner against Felipe dos Santos in September—his December 2022 win over David Dvorak was the most complete example to date of Kape landing some big offense in a well-rounded performance over multiple rounds.

It is unclear if that is still enough to get past Nicolau in a rematch, as the Nova Uniao rep seemed to be marching towards a title shot up until an ill-timed loss to Brandon Royval in April. Nicolau’s 2021 bout with Kape marked the Brazilian’s return to the UFC after controversially getting cut in 2018. Nicolau was a steady if unexciting prospect coming off his season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” but surprisingly got released after his first loss during a time when the promotion was culling its flyweight division. Nicolau kept winning on the regional scene and earned his return, where he showed up as a much sharper version of the same fighter he was as a prospect—a patient but accurate counterstriker who could also take the fight to the ground as needed. Nicolau capped off 2022 with a knockout of Matt Schnell that suggested he had turned a corner in terms of finishing ability, but his 2023 campaign never quite got out of the gates. His lone fight of the year was against Royval, who was able to take advantage of his length and knock Nicolau out before the Brazilian could settle into a groove. There is a chance that Kape can repeat that trick here. Nicolau’s approach is well-practiced but he does have a history of getting caught for early knockouts, and Kape’s shift to a more intentional style might be enough to close the gap and turn a narrow loss into a spectacular win. Despite the early danger, Nicolau still reads as both too fast and too thoughtful for Kape to catch cleanly, so the bet is that the Brazilian can skate by with a close win once again. The pick is Nicolau via decision.

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Ankalaev vs. Walker
Kape vs. Nicolau
Miller vs. Benitez
Simon vs. Bautista
Ferreira vs. Hawes
The Prelims