Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lewis vs. Hunt’

Middleweights

Derek Brunson (16-5) vs. Daniel Kelly (13-1)

THE MATCHUP: Two years ago, Brunson looked like the next middleweight contender, while Kelly was something of an oddity. Now, with Kelly riding a credible four-fight win streak and Brunson two straight defeats, the tables have perhaps turned.

Brunson entered the UFC as a typical Jackson-Wink MMA fighter. Making full use of his athletic abilities, he moved around a lot, mixed up his punches and kicks and shot for opportunistic takedowns. He was strategically sound. Then, in January 2015, he blitzed Ed Herman in under a minute, becoming the first man to properly knock out “Short Fuse.” He won his next three fights in similar fashion, surging forward crazily to hand each of his opponents a first-round knockout. It was not the safest way to fight, but it did not seem inappropriate given his competition.

I, for one, assumed that Brunson would return to his more tactical approach when he stepped into the cage against Robert Whittaker in November. He did not. Brunson threw himself at Whittaker over and over, and just when he looked like he was about to exhaust himself, Whittaker knocked him out. Against Anderson Silva in February, however, Brunson was far too careful. He should have taken the decision, but he failed to apply enough pressure to distract the judges from “The Spider’s” showboating, and he lost again. So the question becomes, which Brunson will show up in Auckland, the maniac, the cautious spoiler or the happy medium?

Whatever version of Brunson appears, it will encounter the same old Dan Kelly. At 39 years old, Kelly fights like a post-prime Dan Henderson, only less powerful and somehow more wooden. Despite the crotchety appearance of his style, however, Kelly has proven remarkably effective. He throws at a steady clip and ties up his opponents to threaten with judo-style takedowns; and that is about it. In contrast with Brunson, the secret to Kelly’s success has been his consistency. He never pushes himself too hard and never allows his opponent enough time to really catch his breath. He stays right on the edge of his effective range at all times and just plugs away for 15 minutes.

If anyone takes anyone down in this fight, it will probably be Brunson. He holds the rare distinction of having grounded Yoel Romero three times in their January 2014 bout. When Brunson does not score a first-round finish, he almost always scores at least one takedown. As far as defense is concerned, Brunson’s is perfect: He has never given up a takedown in 14 UFC and Strikeforce fights. Kelly has proven remarkably difficult to take down in his own right and showed excellent scrambling in his bout with Rashad Evans, but the more athletic Brunson will probably succeed in putting him on his back -- if he wants to.

THE ODDS: Brunson (-255), Kelly (+205)

THE PICK: Brunson simply has too many advantages in this fight. He is far more explosive than Kelly, who does not have the power to punish Brunson the way Whittaker did. He is the more consistent wrestler and the more varied kickboxer. He is not necessarily harder to hit, but he certainly hits harder. Kelly’s remarkable UFC run has been improbable and oddly beautiful, but men like Brunson probably represent the ceiling of “Dadbod Dan’s” capabilities. Whether he plays it safe or comes storming out of the gate, the pick is Brunson by unanimous decision.

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