Preview: UFC 306 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Yazmin Jauregui (11-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Ketlen Souza (14-4, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Jauregui (-500), Souza (+380)

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While 2023 was a lost year for Jauregui, it looks like the experience might pay off for her in the long run. Jauregui rightfully had a ton of hype ahead of her UFC debut in 2022 and lived up to it in her first two trips to the Octagon. Primarily a striker, she brings a rare level of technical aggression to her fights, which allowed her to overwhelm Iasmin Lucindo and Istela Nunes over the long haul. However, Jauregui’s lone fight of 2023 showed that her style wasn’t sustainable—a point that was proven in particularly definitive fashion with Denise Gomes meeting her head-on and scoring a knockout in just 20 seconds. Jauregui eventually returned for a fight against Sam Hughes in February, and it appears she has learned the right lessons from the loss. Rather than attempt to feel her way into a fight early through all-out aggression, Jauregui picked her spots much more effectively while still keeping up a pace, resulting in a one-sided decision victory over an underrated gatekeeper. The UFC has decided against rushing Jauregui back up the ladder for a follow-up, since this bout against Souza looks quite winnable for the Mexican prospect.

Brazil’s Souza seemed to be clicking on all cylinders ahead of her UFC callup in 2023, which has made her recent performances a bit of a disappointment. After quickly falling into a kneebar against Karine Silva in her UFC debut and suffering an injury as a result, Souza’s rebound win over Marnic Mann wasn’t particularly inspiring. Souza seemingly had every advantage but meandered her way to a slow-paced and wrestling-heavy decision victory, even allowing Mann a late comeback in the process. Souza might succeed in slowing things down a bit if she dedicates herself to an ugly grind, but this looks like a bout where Jauregui should be able to break the Brazilian down to an increasing level of success as things go on. The pick is Jauregui via third-round stoppage.

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