Preview: UFC on ABC 6 ‘Whittaker vs. Aliskerov’

Welterweights

Kelvin Gastelum (18-9, 12-9 UFC) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (17-4, 6-3 UFC)

ODDS: Gastelum (-250), Rodriguez (+205)

Two welterweights look to get back in the win column in what should hopefully be an exciting time. Gastelum lost to Sean Brady in December, but at the very least, his being able to make 170 pounds was somewhat of a victory in itself. Back when Gastelum was one of the top young prospects in the sport, weight management issues forced him up to middleweight even as he fashioned himself a natural welterweight. Once Gastelum was forced up to 185 pounds, he marched his way up the ladder with a series of wins that was hard to parse even in the moment. Gastelum looked athletic and dynamic but seemed to have a knack for catching late-career veterans just as they started to fall off, raising some questions as to exactly how impressive his level of competition was. A nip-tuck loss to Israel Adesanya in the most focused performance of Gastelum’s career seemed to indicate “The Ultimate Fighter 17” winner was in fact an elite fighter, but that wound up kicking off a run of five losses in six fights that brought most of his issues to the forefront. He’s so naturally talented that he can often drift through fights, and as his youthful athleticism has started to fade, that has left him as a somewhat limited fighter whose career has stagnated. After a lost 2022, Gastelum returned for a win against Chris Curtis that saw him finally mix things up and recapture some of the form of his performance against Adesanya. As such, it was somewhat surprising when Gastelum decided to trade in that momentum to try and make another run down at 170 pounds. Gastelum made the weight, but his loss against Brady was a bit disheartening. Brady’s status as a top welterweight is well-deserved, but it was surprising to see him outwrestle Gastelum, whose defensive wrestling was one of his more reliable tools at 185 pounds.

At any rate, wrestling shouldn’t be an issue against Rodriguez, who looks to regain some of the momentum he has lost over the last two years. Rodriguez didn’t earn a contract after a solid but unspectacular win on the Contender Series in 2019, but he got the late-notice call a few months later and made the most of it, scoring a surprising finish over Tim Means. “D-Rod” quietly marched his way up to the welterweight rankings from there with a fairly meat-and-potatoes approach. Rodriguez brings some accurate and powerful boxing to the table and can pump out volume for three rounds with enough wrestling and grappling in his back pocket to keep opponents honest. That made for a fairly clean rise through the division, but he has also hit a clear ceiling now that he has found his way into bigger fights. Neil Magny eventually neutralized him in Neil Magny fashion, and Ian Garry affirmed his uber-prospect status by taking Rodriguez apart with little trouble. This fight should settle into a solid groove early on and maintain things from there, since both fighters tend to favor consistency over creativity. Gastelum’s rarely one to separate himself and score a dominant win, but the fact that he seemingly has Rodriguez beat in most categories—athleticism, power, durability and the ability to pivot to some wrestling, if needed—makes him the clear pick. The pick is Gastelum via decision.

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Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Pavlovich vs. Volkov
Gastelum vs. Rodriguez
Naimov vs. Lima
Walker vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims