Preview: UFC 265 Prelims

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Women’s Strawweights

NR | Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6, 5-6 UFC) vs. NR | Jessica Penne (13-5, 2-3 UFC)

ODDS: Kowalkiewicz (-122), Penne (+102)

Former title challengers collide here in an important bout for both women. For Penne, that 2015 title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk was a double-edged sword. Getting the opportunity was a bit of a lucky break in a wide-open strawweight division that had yet to fully develop, but the end result was a career-altering beating that Penne seemingly needed years to recover from. Of course, the UFC did not do Penne any subsequent favors, matching her with Jessica Andrade in another poisonous style pairing that seemed to take years off her career. A third straight loss to Danielle Taylor came with the worry that Penne’s game was now completely broken, and that was where things stood for the next four years. Injuries and back-and-forth issues with the United States Anti-Doping Agency kept Penne out of action from April 2017 to April 2021; and while her win over Lupita Godinez was not a particularly clean one, it was about as promising a showing from Penne as possible, as the former atomweight looked to be in the strongest physical form of her career and stifled her opponent with repeated back takes and submission attempts. Penne looks to start an unlikely winning streak against Kowalkiewicz, who is attempting to stage her own comeback from a brutal loss.

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It took Kowalkiewicz less than a year after her UFC debut to earn her own shot at Jedrzejczyk, and after holding her own against her countrywoman, she hung around the division as a fringe contender for the next few years. However, since an absolutely horrifying knockout loss to Andrade in late 2018, Kowalkiewicz has badly struggled in her attempts to turn things around. Kowalkiewicz’s success was always due to a game that was more than the sum of its parts. She was not particularly efficient or technical, but she got by with volume, durability and a surprisingly strong clinch game that led her to her career-best win over Rose Namajunas. Unfortunately for Kowalkiewicz, her most recent run of opponents—Michelle Waterson, Alexa Grasso and Xiaonan Yan—had her well-scouted, picked her apart and stayed out of danger as much quicker athletes. In the case of the Yan loss, the result was an absolute rout that left Kowalkiewicz with multiple facial fractures, leaving her to recover from a career-threatening eye injury. This should serve as a solid litmus test to see exactly where she fits in the UFC, as Penne is not a particularly powerful striker and figures to lock horns in close quarters. At this point, though, Penne may actually be the more physically dependable fighter. Kowalkiewicz’s ace up her sleeve has always been her sneaky strength, and Penne might just be able to slide to her back, control the fight and walk away with a similar victory to her win over Godinez. Perhaps Kowalkiewicz can turn things around enough to score one more late-career win, but she seems to have been figured out at this point. The pick is Penne via decision.

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