Prime Picks: UFC 310 ‘Pantoja vs. Asakura’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship plunks down its final pay-per-view offering of the year on Saturday in Las Vegas and does so with a deep show featuring some real questions about card ordering. The betting lines are all over the map for the last $70 showcase of 2024, with a couple pick’ems alongside numerous massive favorites above -500. Join the UFC 310 edition of Prime Picks as we put down our final bets until the January reset.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Shavkat Rakhmonov Wins in Over 1.5 Rounds (-125)

The excitement is palpable for the UFC 310 co-headliner, a late replacement welterweight dazzler with massive expectations for the winner. Going from a title fight against Belal Muhammad to a rough-and-tumble Irishman in Ian Garry is quite a shift in opponent, although the five-round guarantee attaches to this non-title tilt. There is no interim belt on the line, nor should there be, given that Muhammad’s injury is not likely to keep him on the shelf for long. The victor here may challenge him by March if things go according to plan. All Rakhmonov needs to do is keep his record unbeaten and get past another man who has never tasted defeat as a professional.

Rakhmonov has displayed lethal striking in the Octagon thus far—he has a sweet spinning hook kick knockout on his highlight reel—but it is on the mat where he has truly excelled. In most instances, combatants out of Russia or the Commonwealth of Independent States with gaudy records littered with finishes run into the wall of opposition encountered stateside and falter. There are but a few names who have surpassed that, and one can quickly imagine most of them. A few USADA cycles and a steady and reasonable rise through the 170-pound ranks has done nothing to slow the ascent of “Nomad,” who can make the miraculous happen in the blink of an eye. Against Geoff Neal, Rakhmonov was hurt badly early in the third round, but he remained composed, spun the Fortis MMA rep around in the clinch and smashed him in the face with a right hand that preempted the upcoming standing submission.

In his last few outings, the man from Kazakhstan answered a ton of questions about his character, his strengths and his weaknesses. Rakhmonov can survive through adversity and inflict even greater damage to make his own seem light in response, and he’s always seeking a finish no matter where he is in the fight. The only archetype of an adversary who remains in his division is a gritty, grinding wrestler who can stand up to some punishment. Garry is an elite talent who will come in larger than his foe, with a high-volume approach that has some power behind it. “The Future” mixes his attacks together well, and he will have to either gain Rakhmonov’s respect early or treat the floor like lava and avoid the ground game at all costs. Rakhmonov has more ways to win, and with five rounds to work, he can figure out the Garry puzzle and get the job done.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Kai Asakura (+220)

Fighters making their UFC debuts in title tilts historically do not fare well. This does not account for anyone in the pre-Zuffa era or those tossed into championship affairs after a reality show. The names can be counted on a little more than one hand: Hayuto Sakurai, Gil Castillo, Frank Trigg, Gilbert Melendez, Joe Soto, Tonya Evinger and Yana Santos. They all have one thing in common: None of those names won gold on their night to shine. Asakura could be the first, but the odds are not in his favor. Alexandre Pantoja, a few months from reaching the dreaded age of 35, can once again make a statement by spurning away an exceptionally talented competitor.

Even with five losses on the Brazilian’s resume, the book on beating Pantoja has not been clearly written. Those defeats have all come in three-round contests, and strategies are substantially different with the extra 10 minutes to work. Winning two rounds out of three by putting in a little more effort than Pantoja has been how others have surpassed him, and mixing in takedowns seems to slow his roll a bit. Unfortunately for Asakura, he’s a brawler by trade. After all, he grew up in street fights and even carried the success of Rings’ The Outsider event series on his shoulders. The threat of the takedown will likely be few and far between from the challenger from Japan, making his one-dimensional approach paltry compared to the multi-faceted attack that Pantoja presents. Asakura could shock the work by thumping Pantoja in the first round, but he has to get down to 125 pounds first and then feel accustomed to a cage enough to plant his feet and knock the Brazilian stiff. After all, it will be the first time the former Rizin Fighting Federation champ has competed in a cage and at flyweight since 2017. Pantoja’s moneyline may be a bit high, but he’s a perfect anchor for a parlay.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Alexander Volkov (+280)

Volkov faced Ciryl Gane in 2021 atop UFC Fight Night 190, and the Prime Picks prediction was that the former Bellator MMA champion would get the job done. We were wrong, oh so wrong. We expected that Gane’s inexperience—he was 8-0 at the time—coupled with Volkov’s similar attributes and high accuracy would be enough for the Russian to prevail. Instead, what happened was five rounds of out-fighting, with practically zero moments of danger and a lot of jiggery-pokery from the Frenchman, with deceptive reads and sneaky attacks. After 25 minutes of that, it does not seem likely that when the two roll it back in a three-round package, it will play out the same.

Gane has gotten through much of the heavyweight division by consistently fighting at the pace and distance he prefers. “Bon Gamin” takes surprise out of the equation by settling down and potshotting opponents from a safe range, all while moving regularly so as to not get cleanly countered. He may not be a factor on the heavyweight knockdown leaderboard, but his striking totals, accuracy and differentials are all top-notch on his column. Making it so big sluggers cannot cleanly hit him takes ample danger out of contests where one heavy fist can end the night, and he did this to Volkov once before. Why is there confidence in Volkov getting over the hump in the rematch? Since their first fight, Volkov’s commitment to his striking arsenal has gone up substantially. The Russian is now willing to put some oomph behind his strikes, instead of pitter-patter working them over like Gane would. Additionally, he is not starting as slowly as before, and if he can get to Gane and force the former interim beltholder to fight off his back foot, it’s a fight he can win. At this plus money, the expectation that Volkov learned his lesson after the first deflating defeat is one that makes him a worthy bet.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Alexandre Pantoja (-270)

Movsar Evloev-Aljamain Sterling Goes to Decision (-325)

Chris Weidman-Eryk Anders Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-475)

Total Odds: +117

It might be the last time his name is recommended in a Prime Picks piece, but Pantoja is the one to beat in the main event. The diversity of his arsenal gives even the most schooled opponent fits, as he can hit like a compact car and switch gears entirely to blast through the hips and get to work on top. What might be his best factor is one that will certainly diminish with age: recoverability. While Pantoja is an exceptionally durable competitor, he’s still hittable and he has had his bell rung on numerous occasions during his championship run. Asakura could be the one to crack his chin for the first time—ask Yuta Sasaki just how hard he hits—but what separates “The Cannibal” from most is that he can take a licking and keep on ticking. Deiveson Figueiredo is the only man to drop him in the Octagon, and that helped make the difference to win against the favorite here. It’s not so simple as to say Asakura has a puncher’s chance, but it’s not far from there.

The UFC knew what it was doing when it matched Evloev against Sterling, and the outcome it predicted led to its placement on the undercard. Where else would two top-tier featherweights battle it out for a possible title shot and be buried on the prelims—beneath unranked 145ers on the main card, at that. One main factor is Evloev. The Russian has won all eight of his UFC outings, but he has done so on the scorecards each and every time. He has not been especially close to getting a stoppage, although a few others have nearly snared him, including Diego Lopes. Sterling is the type of grappler who can defuse the meat-and-potatoes wrestling attack of Evloev, but unless he can display superiority that leads to him taking the Russian’s back and choking him out, the likelihood of a finish is quite limited. It could be a fun back-and-forth wrestling battle or one where the victor shows there are levels to this game, but either way, it should go the distance.

It has been over five years—plus a few weeks, since this fight was delayed a PPV due to an Anders illness—since Anders has put someone away prior to the 6:30 mark of the match, and a dilapidated Weidman will not likely be the one to break that streak. The former champ’s jaw has held up of late, although activity has not been the strong suit of “The All-American” thanks to a litany of injuries, including his brutal broken leg against Uriah Hall. At the tender age of 40, Weidman’s back is firmly against the wall in what could be his last time out, and as long as he fights to his best advantages, he can keep his head attached to his body and try to outlast the former University of Alabama football player. A solid takedown defense rate of around 80% for Anders means that he can keep his back against the wall while sprawling like a madman, and all the while, time keeps on ticking into the future. Barring Anders flying like an eagle and demolishing a shopworn Weidman, it has the makings of a match that goes long. If it does, the accumulator starts off right, checking off what might be the riskiest box of the three options.