Preview: UFC Fight Night 124 ‘Stephens vs. Choi’

Welterweight

Emil Weber Meek (9-2-1, 1 NC) vs. Kamaru Usman (11-1)

ODDS: Usman (-650), Meek (+425)

ANALYSIS: As we know, styles make fights. You may be an outstanding fighter, but if you wind up pitted against an opponent with a particularly pernicious style, you might be a whopping underdog. Such is the case here.

In fairness, Meek does have a rather scant track record. Until his upset of Rousimar Palhares, he had not fought nor beaten any notable opposition, and at the end of the day, he has fought once in the UFC, outpointing Jordan Mein over a year ago; most of Meek’s appeal is that he is a jacked-up Viking with a large beard wielding an axe. With that said, he is over +400 as an underdog, not for his lack of high-level experience but for the fact that Usman really is a treacherous style match for him.

Meek will need to hit Usman hard and early to have much an impact on this fight. The Norwegian’s brawn is not going to matter much here, since Usman is even taller and longer and, more operatively, a powerhouse wrestler. Meanwhile, Meek struggled to stop Mein’s takedowns in the opening round of their contest and relied on a top-heavy attack to wear out the Canadian; “Valhalla” simply is not going to be taking down Usman down, at least not with any consistency or regularity. However, despite the time he has spent training stateside in Las Vegas and the like, Meek is not going to transform into a well-rounded striker overnight, and the muscly Viking is still at his best as a brute, not a boxer. He stands flat, pushes his punches from his shoulders and elbows with mechanical labor and, frankly, may be as good of a standing target for Usman as vice versa, with the Nigerian coming off of one-shot stoppage of Sergio Moraes in September.

Meek’s visa issues led to this bout being moved from UFC 219 to this event, but they could do it on Meek’s birthday in The Storting and I am not sure it would make any difference. Meek is very much a work in progress, and while Usman is still sharpening his own skills, he already has some finely honed tools. Plus, his own physical freakishness goes a long way to neutralizing Meek’s natural strength and explosive power. Usman wins a one-sided decision via top-position mauling, moves to 7-0 in the UFC and hopefully gets the top-10 opponent he has been seeking his next time out.

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