Preview: UFC Fight Night 124 ‘Stephens vs. Choi’

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (23-5) vs. Michael Johnson (17-12)

ODDS: Johnson (-155), Elkins (+135)

ANALYSIS: Johnson says he feels disrespected by not getting a main card assignment at this event, with it being the UFC’s debut in St. Louis and the Gateway City being his hometown. However, Johnson is in a tough professional predicament here. He has just one win in his last five UFC bouts and is cutting down to featherweight to face a fighter who is going to force him to stay on task for 15 minutes. To be clear, “The Menace” is not in any kind of showcase opportunity here. Admittedly, Johnson’s 1-4 run is largely a function of his facing elite opposition, and the last time he fought, he was one half of the 2017 “Fight of the Year.” However, why would Johnson opt to have an insane, nine-minute brawl with Justin Gaethje? How did he go from controlling Nate Diaz for a round to being a punching bag for the last 10 minutes? Johnson is at his best when he sets an early tempo and his opponent struggles to adjust. When an opponent can get him away from whatever game plan trainer Henri Hooft has laid out for him -- i.e. Diaz taunting him and turning him into a blind puncher who abandoned his successful leg kicks -- he struggles. The 31-year-old is a dangerous southpaw with a varied lead hand: He can jab with or land with power. Plus, Johnson wields impressive variety with his left hand, as he can score moving forward or back, with a wide-arching overhand or tight uppercut. When he is not being suckered out of using them, he also has a powerful and smart leg kicking game, using inside and outside kicks to disrupt and stumble his opposition.

Elkins has made big improvements during his time at Team Alpha Male, but the wild card here is his toughness and whether or not he can potentially withstand a similar beating to the one he took from Mirsad Bektic before roaring back to win in March. Elkins tends to be too straightforward as a wrestler, leading to his taking extra punches to set up grappling exchanges, which is precisely the environment in which Johnson thrives. While Elkins may have all the ability to turn on the juice late and pressure Johnson if he is still in the cage, how he actually puts him on the mat and scores consistently is a major question. Elkins is not going to control Johnson along the fence as Khabib Nurmagomedov did. Johnson may look physically depleted at 145 pounds, but barring that sort of setback, I like him to put the left hand on Elkins and knock him out in the first 10 minutes.

Lightweight

James Krause (24-7) vs. Alex White (12-3)

ODDS: Krause (-160), White (+140)

ANALYSIS: Krause is a smart cookie, so when he is actively competing for UFC on-air analyst jobs or doing interviews where he discusses the possibility of being a better coach than a fighter, he is laying some intelligent professional groundwork. In the meantime, he gets a preferential style matchup here in an all-Missouri showdown. White is a more capable and dangerous striker than Krause’s last opponent, Tom Gallicchio, but inevitably Krause will try to enact the same dynamic. Krause will have four inches of reach over White and seek to use every inch of it. He does not throw much connected volume, preferring to paw and jab from the outside while finding opportune moments to throw heavy single shots. This plays well against White, who will be a much larger takedown threat if Krause is too aggressive but much more manageable if Krause works a patient outfighting game. Krause also has the benefit of being a sneaky submission grappler in transition, especially if he has already rocked his opponent, so the hard-charging southpaw could play into Krause’s hands that way, as well. White is going to keep swinging and shooting takedowns, but Krause’s classic sprawl-and-brawl game should carry him to a decision victory.

Lightweight

Matt Frevola (6-0) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (7-4)

ODDS: Frevola (-235), Reyes (+195)

ANALYSIS: With a nickname like “The Steamrolla,” you know right out of the gate that you are dealing with a Serra-Longo Fight Team prospect in Frevola. Fortunately, that is an asset in this sport, as Ray Longo and Matt Serra’s striking-grappling union knows how to churn ’em out. As is the case with many of Long Island’s finest, Frevola is a wrestling-heavy, top-position grappler first, but he is not afraid to mix it up with his hands, as evidenced by his performance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in August, when he choked out Jose Flores after willingly brawling for the first half of the bout. This suits Reyes just fine. In fact, that dynamic is what likely informs the relative closeness of the betting line. By all rights, the undefeated 27-year-old Frevola should be an even sturdier favorite since he has more than enough in the wrestling department to put Mexico’s Reyes on the mat early and often; the question is whether or not he is going to engender the wild punching exchanges that Reyes excels in while chasing down his target. Frevola may hit a quick, well-timed single or double that puts him in quick top position and allows him to use his grappling wits to advance and submit Reyes in the first half of the fight, but it is largely dependent on how he wants to approach the contest and an opponent who could quickly land a counter combo and put him on the fritz. The Huntington, New York, prospect is the pick, but do not expect Frevola to make it easy on himself against a fighter -- or any fighter -- who just wants to trade leather.

Welterweight

Thiago Alves (22-11) vs. Zak Cummings (21-5)

ODDS: Cummings (-200), Alves (+170)

ANALYSIS: Do you realize it has been nearly six years since Alves’ come-from-behind loss to Martin Kampmann? Time flies when you are having fun or are constantly infirmed, I suppose. Yes, his last scheduled outing in September against Mike Perry was scuttled due to travel complications stemming from Hurricane Irma, but Alves, still just 34 years old, has spent so much time injured that it has completely distorted and obscured what he is even capable of as a mixed martial artist in 2018. In their best forms, or even some facsimile of it, Cummings is a great match for Alves. It would not even take a 2008 “Fighter of the Year”-type campaign from “Pitbull” to maintain his distance, carve up the plodding American with his trademark leg kicks and then lob his heavy, hooking combinations behind them. Do those days still exist? Alves is truly a shell of his former self, a fighter in which you can see the previous spark and technical ability but a fighter in which you can also see the struggle that does not allow it all to actuate. While Alves may have become known for his own 170-pound size and the struggles on the scale, Cummings is a positively massive in a different way. The Missouri native is not as shredded or developed as Alves, but it is remarkable to stand next to the man and fathom him as a welterweight. More than that, the southpaw has matured into a competent standup fighter who can, at this point, check Alves’ sparse leg kicks and march forward behind a five-inch reach advantage and his jab while wearing down the Brazilian. They are very different fighters, but many of the complications Alves had against Jim Miller 14 months ago can easily rear their head here, and Cummings is twice the size of Miller. Alves is in the twilight of a quasi-tragic career, and unless he lands the perfect leg kick or counter hook, he is likely to be swarmed, muscled and grinded down to a decision.

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